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Is Elias leaning toward offense over defense in 2021?

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4 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Are you sure about that? Looking at 2019, the only team in the AL east that had a "fourth OF" with 300+ PA as identified by bbref was the Orioles and that was Stevie Wilkerson. Making my way through the other divisions now, but it doesn't appear that the "typical" 4th OF gets 300+ PA.

It was just a guess to be honest.  Most teams don’t have 3 capable/everyday OFer or even 3 OFers that stay healthy all year.

The 4th OFer is almost another starter in my eyes.  Someone that can platoon, fill in everyday if needed, etc...Mullins isn’t that player.

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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Look at what you just said.  He can bunt and pinch run.  Those are 2 of the 3 factors you named.  Those aren’t exactly things I would be hanging my hat on.  What you just said is why him as the 26th man is fine to have around.

A 4th OFer typically gets 300+ at bats.  They typically are someone you may lean on to start everyday when a guy is hurt.  I don’t see how anyone wants Mullins to be that guy.

You act like Mullins hits like Chris Davis. He has value using the skill set I mentioned before. Again, not an every day starter but if he had to play for a couple weeks if someone is out for a short amount of time then I think he’d be fine. He’ll never be an All Star but 4th OF types never are. 

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Regarding outfielders, you’d have to define “outfielder“ I don’t think anybody would claim that Mark Trumbo is an outfielder, I don’t think Mancini is, and I’m not sure that Mountcastle is either, although Mike certainly is making that claim.

We have at least three guys who clearly are outfielders in Hays, Santander, and Mullins, and that should be the starting point.

I don’t remember who said that players should be put in the best position to maximize their talents, But that is what needs to happen.
 

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8 minutes ago, Philip said:

Regarding outfielders, you’d have to define “outfielder“ I don’t think anybody would claim that Mark Trumbo is an outfielder, I don’t think Mancini is, and I’m not sure that Mountcastle is either, although Mike certainly is making that claim.

We have at least three guys who clearly are outfielders in Hays, Santander, and Mullins, and that should be the starting point.

I don’t remember who said that players should be put in the best position to maximize their talents, But that is what needs to happen.
 

You don't have to define "outfielder" any more than we had to define "major league catcher".  Anyone who plays in the outfield is an outfielder, just like Sisco is a major league catcher.

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19 hours ago, oriole said:

You act like Mullins hits like Chris Davis. He has value using the skill set I mentioned before. Again, not an every day starter but if he had to play for a couple weeks if someone is out for a short amount of time then I think he’d be fine. He’ll never be an All Star but 4th OF types never are. 

I’m not really acting like anything but your point is that he pinch runs and bunts(2 of your 3 pluses), therefore he’s a 4th OFer.  I don’t really trust that profile to be anyone I want to give any real amount of at bats to.

He just isn’t that good.  He can do a few things that allow him to potentially be the last guy on your bench and provide you with a spark from time to time on the bases.  That’s not the profile of a 4th OFer for me.

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On 1/12/2021 at 11:05 AM, Sports Guy said:

It was just a guess to be honest.  Most teams don’t have 3 capable/everyday OFer or even 3 OFers that stay healthy all year.

The 4th OFer is almost another starter in my eyes.  Someone that can platoon, fill in everyday if needed, etc...Mullins isn’t that player.

I think his fit as a 4th OF depends on a guy like Stewart who might also fit as a 4th OF. One guy is there for injury or as a platoon DH/PH. The other guy is there in many more games for baserunning and defense, with some platoon options to help with days off.

That assumes you're roster is constructed that way, and that your Stewart-like player is actually decent. With Mountcastle able to play a passable LF, the perfect scenario would be for Mountcastle to be the 1B and able to be pushed into the OF if injury hits. That way your Stewart-like player could be even more of a Trumbo-like guy without ever really seeing the field.

In that scenario, Mullins has a real fit without having to be a guy you rely on for 500 ABs.

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On 1/12/2021 at 10:54 AM, BohKnowsBmore said:

Are you sure about that? Looking at 2019, the only team in the AL east that had a "fourth OF" with 300+ PA as identified by bbref was the Orioles and that was Stevie Wilkerson. Making my way through the other divisions now, but it doesn't appear that the "typical" 4th OF gets 300+ PA.

According to a Fangraphs list from 2019 I’m looking at, there were 109 players they listed as outfielders who had 300+ at bats.    So, that would put the median for a fourth OF right around 300.    There were 148 listed who had 200+ at bats, suggesting that a 5th OF should have that many.    

Now, I haven’t studied the list to see if it includes a lot of guys who are listed as outfielders but also played 1B, DH or some other infield spots.   My guess is it probably does include some of those.  

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=4,d
 

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3 hours ago, Frobby said:

According to a Fangraphs list from 2019 I’m looking at, there were 109 players they listed as outfielders who had 300+ at bats.    So, that would put the median for a fourth OF right around 300.    There were 148 listed who had 200+ at bats, suggesting that a 5th OF should have that many.    

Now, I haven’t studied the list to see if it includes a lot of guys who are listed as outfielders but also played 1B, DH or some other infield spots.   My guess is it probably does include some of those.  

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=4,d
 

I would imagine a lot of those are disproportionately in the NL as well, due to rule set and increased level of PH/substitution, which isn’t quite as relevant when talking about an AL team like the Os. Many of those are probably injury driven as well, which is fine as that’s part of what you have the 4th OF for, but it’s a slightly different thing than saying “this is what we expect / hope for in team construction.”

Edit- on second look, I think your other point explains more of it, as guys like Mancini, Kros Bryant, Franmil Reyes, Niko Goodrich, etc. are included in those numbers, thus pushing the true median for what we actually think of as a “fourth outfielder” downward. 

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