If I am Mike Elias I am on the phone with the padres

[ofan239]

To  1) see if Jake Cronenworth is available and 2) if he is what would they want in return . I trade them Austin Hays or Diaz  and a SP

Cronenworth becomes starter at short for now and lead off hitter . Mountcastle plays left field , Mullins in center , Santander in right field . When Diaz is ready you move Mountcastle to first base , Mancini to dh When Henderson / west burg are ready you move Cronenworth to whatever position you need covered - he plays infield and corner outfield slots .thoughts?

Edited Tuesday at 20:35 by ofan239

[DrungoHazewood]

I have at least three questions/concerns about Jake Cronenworth:

1) He's 27 in nine days.  That's a concern.

2) Why didn't he hit until 2019?  As recently as '18 he had a .668 OPS as a 24-year-old in AA.

3) Is he really a MLB shortstop? He started playing quite a bit of 2B/3B in '18, and was primarily a 2B last year.

On the other hand, he apparently was Michigan's closer in college, so maybe he can pitch some mopup relief.

[Tony-OH]

I'd take him and would be willing to give up Diaz for him as well, but he's most likely a 2B, not a SS. His offensive statcast percentile rankings are crazy good, but he did struggle a bit over his last month.

Here's a good take on him:

Quote

Positives

He slashed .285/.354/.477 over 192 plate appearances. Advanced analytics show that the slash line is a lot lower than what he should have done. Using expected statistics, he should have had a .324 batting average and a .541 slugging percentage. The foundation of those expected statistics comes from his 89.8 mph average exit velocity. That places him squarely at 50^th overall for average exit velocity in 2020. These advanced analytics show that his success has a strong foundation and should be repeatable next year.

In the second half, he did slump, as will be discussed in the negatives section. A positive is how nicely he bounced back in the playoffs. In 16 plate appearances, he slashed .389/.542/.667 with a stolen base.

On the defensive front, he showed a lot of versatility, playing all over the infield. Playing mostly 2^nd base, he finished the season with 3 outs above average. The only position he struggled at was shortstop, and that largely won’t matter because of some player named Fernando Tatis Jr. He makes good reads off the bat and could be a viable outfielder.

Negatives 

The main knock on his shortened season is his second-half slump. In the second half of the season, he slashed .237/.312/.361. In a full season, the two halves of the 2020 season could be seen as a hot and cold month, respectively. Had he not had this long slump, it is possible he would have won the NL ROY.

Looking at how the slump started, Cronenworth was connecting with the ball at ideal angles. His line-drive rate dropped from 31.3%, in the first half, to 20.3% in the second half. More of the balls in play were grounders or fly balls instead.

Another factor in how he started to struggle was his approach. He was a very heavy pull hitter in the first half, with 43.8% of the balls in play going to his pull side. Only 18.8% of his balls in play went to the opposite field. In the second half, that basically flipped with 40.5% of the balls going oppo.

Outlook

At this time, it’s unclear if Jake Cronenworth will be a starter next season. The acquisition of Ha-Seong Kim creates a lot of competition at second base. It appears as though Cronenworth may move around and be a super-utility player. This means he will not be sticking at one position, but he will be getting a lot of playing time as Jayce Tingler gives other players days of rest. He has proven that he is a versatile infielder, and it will remain seen if that translates well to the outfield.

Cronenworth will still be a good batter like he was in 2020. For all the damage his slump did to his overall number, they were still very good. All the expected analytics put him in the top 98 percentile in expected batting average even with a bad second half. It’s reasonable to assume that he will be more of the first half hitter.

The Padres will need Cronenworth if they are going to push for the World Series. His name was tossed around in trade rumors, but it looks like he is here to stay. For a good reason, the Padres are taking a page out of the Dodgers book and keeping good batters who are versatile on defense.

https://www.eastvillagetimes.com/padres-jake-cronenworth-positives-negatives-outlook/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=padres-jake-cronenworth-positives-negatives-outlook

[Philip]

1 hour ago, ofan239 said:

To  1) see if Jake Cronenworth is available and 2) if he is what would they want in return . I trade them Austin Hays or Diaz  and a SP

Cronenworth becomes starter at short for now and lead off hitter . Mountcastle plays left field , Mullins in center , Santander in right field . When Diaz is ready you move Mountcastle to first base , Mancini to dh When Henderson / west burg are ready you move Cronenworth to whatever position you need covered - he plays infield and corner outfield slots .thoughts?

Any plan that has MC in the OF Needs to be Plan B or plan C at best.

[ofan239]

17 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I'd take him and would be willing to give up Diaz for him as well, but he's most likely a 2B, not a SS. His offensive statcast percentile rankings are crazy good, but he did struggle a bit over his last month.

Here's a good take on him:

https://www.eastvillagetimes.com/padres-jake-cronenworth-positives-negatives-outlook/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=padres-jake-cronenworth-positives-negatives-outlook

This is good - I do wonder if he just was stuck at short instead of playing all over if his numbers at short would be better . Seems like sort of a small sample size and  he came up a shortstop so I’d think he’d have the arm strength . I am just trying to find cheap versatile infielders that wouldn’t be an automatic out at the plate . I just don’t want galvis . 

Edited Tuesday at 22:35 by ofan239

[Tony-OH]

10 minutes ago, ofan239 said:

This is good - I do wonder if he just was stuck at short instead of playing all over if his numbers at short would be better . Seems like sort of a small sample size and  he came up a shortstop so I’d think he’d have the arm strength . I am just trying to find cheap versatile infielders that wouldn’t be an automatic out at the plate . I just don’t want galvis . 

I'm not really taking too much out of his major league numbers at SS because he only played a handful of games there. But, the fact that he was moved around a lot in the minors suggests he's probably not an everyday shortstop defensively. 

I have never seen him play so I really can't say, but I'd certainly give him a look there in the spring.

He's worth a shot in my opinion, but I wouldn't trade Hays for him even though Hays has been injury prone. I still think Hays ends up a solid every day outfielder who can play center.

[oriole]

I highly doubt Elias is keen on trading anyone for a major league piece right now. Maybe next offseason? 

[Tony-OH]

22 minutes ago, oriole said:

I highly doubt Elias is keen on trading anyone for a major league piece right now. Maybe next offseason? 

Yeah, but he's young and cheap enough to be someone I could see him wanting. He has a little outfield depth to work with as well.

[Sports Guy]

I trust Diaz long term more than Hays.

[Frobby]

26 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I trust Diaz long term more than Hays.

Why?   

[Ripken]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Yeah, but he's young and cheap enough to be someone I could see him wanting. He has a little outfield depth to work with as well.

He's not that young.

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Why?   

I think he has higher offensive upside, especially OBP.

They are both similar in terms of not trusting them to stay healthy.

We also still don’t know for sure that Hays can handle CF on an everyday basis.

[Tony-OH]

21 minutes ago, Ripken said:

He's not that young.

He's entering his prime at 27 next season. That's young enough to be a decent piece for now. Again, I wouldn't give up a top prospect for him, but if the Padres wanted a Yusniel Diaz type of guy I think he could be decent look at 2B or possibly even SS until guys like Westburg and Henderson are ready. 

 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I trust Diaz long term more than Hays.

Diaz is average at best defensively and looses focus at times defensively and on the base paths. Diaz has never been able to bring his above average raw power into the game consistently and he's only one year younger than Hays and hays has already shown the ability to hit Major league pitching. 

Both have health concerns but when healthy, Hays slashed .330/.367/.594/.960 in AA at 21 years of age when Diaz slashed .262/.335/.472/.807 at 22 in AA.

Hays to me is a much better player overall and has a much better chance to stick in center than Diaz who probably should be a corner outfielder. 

Now maybe Diaz puts his raw skills together and perhaps his penchant for playing big on the big stage will result in him doing better at the major league level than in the boring mostly empty minor league parks, but I think hays will end up the much better big league player when it's all said and done.

[OrioleDog]

4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I'm not really taking too much out of his major league numbers at SS because he only played a handful of games there. But, the fact that he was moved around a lot in the minors suggests he's probably not an everyday shortstop defensively. 

I am still just in my 40's, but feeling the Get Off My Lawn grumpy old man about SS stretches in the time of our annual vacancy.

You know what shortstops do?  Play shortstop!   The regime's assessment of Gunnar and Westburg I will mostly hear on the PASS/FAIL class they are taking - Did you play almost all of your games at SS this month?   Those are YOUR game reps if the club thinks you can do it.   It'll be cool if Hernaiz earns Delmarva SS to get a Bowie/Aberdeen instead of Aberdeen/Delmarva start.

I don't think it matters really if Grenier or Servideo are "better" glovemen (unless maybe we're maximizing wins at Aberdeen).   I could give one of Gunnar/Westburg a pass if they are teammates after midseason promotions. 

Hall only got 67% SS use, and Vavra 55% SS.....in the Sally.   Even Jeter heir apparent Gleyber got 90% on the way up.

(Official recognition hometown inner circle HOF Cal Ripken an exception to prove this rule)

Cronenworth-wise, I think the Padres see him as their Chris Taylor (including P in the UT profile) as they line up mano-a-mano against the Dodgers, and guessing probably they aren't trying to beat the Dodgers with dudes we could trade them now, or selling current wins for future wins.