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OrioleDog

Outcomes v. FG crowdsource predictions

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On my piece of paper, I'd scribbled down 25 remaining guys the FG crowdsourcers forecast at $10M+, a group including all three good shortstops.   We now have news of 1 signing from the Top 25.

Liam Hendriks was forecast for 12, and got 13.5.

+12.5% for Player1

Outside Top 25, Dodgers paid Treinen +12.5%.    Treinen also the first signee from the 26-50 range of the list, telling me that obvious WS contenders want their October specialists (and lots of off days!)

Remaining relievers above the 50th place Freddy Galvis price point: Brad Hand, Alex Colome, Mark Melancon, Joakim Soria and Kirby Yates.

I think the Blue Jays retaining Robbie Ray and the Royals splurge for Carlos Santana and Mike Minor (they are kind of in same spot as us, but this would not excite me) the only other signings from the $8M and up group before I put pen to paper.

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker

If we really are opening camps in a month, Freddy Galvis and his 50 better looking friends need jobs.

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This week Petriello on the Statcast podcast did something similar.   He crowdsourced MLBTR as well as FG, and on the first 15 signees compiled that clubs spent $250M total and 8.2 AAV whereas predictors on that group had guessed $190M total and 7.1 AAV.

This included Hendriks, early Royals, lower guys like Wacha/Zunino.  So slow market, but players getting "Wins".

I think that in the first 10-20% of signings though, you get that basket where clubs know things and assign values your average FG/MLBTR guesser doesn't, so I don't think that will be predictive for the last ~75% of the Top 60 guys. 

In that segment, they kind of talked how Odorizzi probably sees Smyly's contract as unfair given their respective accomplishments.  Smyly got hopped on for low 8-figures, perhaps because his fastball was good for a couple months.

 

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Beneath the Springer whirl yesterday, Jose Quintana and Kirby Yates were a couple of others who signed in the range of 20% LESS than the AAV benchmarks.    They become the 6th and 7th signees from the Freddy Fifty overall.

Whether you guess an Orioles standing offer to Galvis is like 1/3 (or if an Andrelton for 1/7 outlay is a risk the regime might venture), those would need 50% less than the guesses.

I have no real guess today when camps open in a few weeks if 15, 30 or 40 of these guys are going to be signed, or how deep discounts will get.   I do think if a couple teams are entirely out of the market, it shows up most at the Galvis/Villar/Enrique tier of player.

I am pretty sure Cole Hamels isn't going to be getting $14M.

Whether Galvis ends up at 6, 3, a minor league invite or abroad is a little bit of a yardstick for me of how big revenue ripples are, and/or how much hardball in the CBA walk year is being played.

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Wilson Ramos guessed for $10M actually signing for $2M comes pretty quickly behind Galvis as a second instance of an outcome all the way down to the 75-80% off range.

Ramos 10 had been guessed higher than ex-Orioles Arrieta 9, Schoop 8 and Villar 6, for whom any getting $2M or less is perhaps in play now.

Stewart/LeBlanc/Milone last year all 800K (aka ~$250K > Minimum) if you condense those to say $1.25M it might buy a Brett Anderson, Homer Bailey or Matt Shoemaker at a 75% off guess price point.   Ah, fodder.

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A rotation's worth of starters are entering the Alex Cobb Late Start to Spring Training Zone where you'd imagine their eventual signers would want them to start one of the season's first five games:

Cole Hamels, Jake Odorizzi, Rick Porcello, Taijuan Walker, Anibal Sanchez (14, 13, 11, 9 and 7 respectively on the AAV guesses)

Even the Pirates got Tyler Anderson today.   I doubt the Orioles will shock the world, but I admit as a lefty change-up guy I've wondered about Hamels Sutcliffe as a Means mentor.   It might be you don't want opponents to see two of that kind of guy any given series though.

Anibal might be in the Wieters/Markakis yellow zone for any job at all, which Jason Kipnis escaped by taking a minor league deal.

Just Bradley and Puig left batters-wise before that drops off to the Jake Lambs and Maikel Francos who might represent a 3B upgrade.   I am guessing Brett Gardner's undying Yankee grit extends to keeping himself at a market of one, and Cashman's sorting through how to message he perhaps isn't wanted at all anymore.

Of the Top ~25 guessed at $10M and up, Wilson Ramos $2M looks like the worst miss, though Hamels or Puig might challenge.  I think Odorizzi, Porcello and Bradley don't end up that bad, and Taijuan has the youth thing.   Recent signee Paxton had been guessed $15M, getting just over half that, though injury clouds perhaps baked into that.

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