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OrioleDog

Who doesn't belong?

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I have this notion of Diaz, Hays, Santander, Mountcastle and Mancini as 5/9ths of the lineup, with Mancini --> Kjerstad pretty clockwork in 1.5-2 years (and maybe 10 extra games).

I know Diaz has questions, but still peg him a couple ticks beyond Mullins and Stewart.   He only has to be what, 80%?, as good at both of Mullins/Stewart's respective strengths for the 2-way upside to get him an edge.  At least find out if the psychobabble stuff plays out in 2021.

As a group, these current five just all hit me about the same, ensuring the lineup around Rutschman has some assets from Day 1.   Is anyone here better than all the rest?   Worse?   It's like half the offense is Dean Kremer.

Hays's CF defense is the flimsiest part of it to me, but Mullins is on hand and he fits this group like a glove.

Diaz v. Santander for most Oriole WAR next few years is I think kind of a fun prop bet entering this year.

Obviously the hope is Ryan Mountcastle makes this a take that ages very badly, and later Kjerstad proves simply a different tier of player. 

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I expect Santander and Mancini to be dealt at some point as the final parts of the dismantling. I know you are saying AR will have assets around him when he arrives and likely will. I don’t think Elias/O’s ownership wants them to be expensive. Also I really think the rebuild is over when the rotation is or close to in place. I’m not talking about guys getting opportunities, I’m talking about 3+ of our guys pitching well enough every 5 games to have the opportunity to win regularly. If that happens it’s time to supplement and be serious about winning.

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There is a lot of hope here but not a lot of clarity.   Mountcastle and Santander appear to be everyday players to build a team around.  Rutschman will be added to that core in the next year but a low chance he sees much time in the majors in 2021.

Mancini is a great addition in the short term but is probably not a long term player because of his contract and age.  They will not give him a long term contract when he becomes a FA after the 2022 season so Elias will look to trade him at the deadline or next off season for prospects.

Hays has potential but his health and nonperformance  makes him a question mark.  Diaz has to prove he is a major leaguer and still has to spend time at AAA.  Mullins is a really good defensive centerfield that Hyde just loves.  He looks like a platoon player vs right-handed pitching and his defense makes him a player that will be in a lot of games late.

Kjerstad probably begins at Delmarva if not rookie ball.  He has potential but is too far away to be Mancini's replacement. Mancini is probably replaced by Diaz in the lineup but shares time a DH and the OF corners.  Stewart and Shaw probably fights it out for the DH role this spring.   It hard to know if either fits long term but they are cheap, have a bat and will be given a chance.

Means is a long term piece.  A guy that might get a long term contract in a few years.  Kremer looks good and I am encouraged by Ben McDonald's assessment of Akin's off speed stuff.   Baumann if healthy and Lowther could be added to rotation in the 2nd half.   These guys could form a solid group in 2022.   GrayRod and Hall  being the studs that Elias/Hyde will make room for in the future.

There are enough arms to form a good pen and I like Holt/Holmes ability to help pitchers add and refine pitches.

Elias has a lot of work to do in the infield and the team will probably not contend until he figures it out.

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The answer to this question is who the hell knows.

As of right now, my answer is that Mountcastle is the only who does belong.  His offense and the idea that he has been pretty healthy sets him apart from the rest, although even he is still largely a ML question mark.  I would plan on all of them getting significant at bats in 2021, as long as they are on the team.

But the reality is you have 3 guys who can’t stay healthy and a 4th coming off of cancer.  Mancini is also getting past your prime years and will start to get expensive. I like him but how much are you willing to pay for a DH with a good but likely not great bat (I don’t think 2019 is his new normal going forward).  Do you want to give that player a long term extension?  I didn’t want to do that before the cancer issue popped up, so I don’t see any reason to do it now.

Kjerstad will be up here within 2 years..either that or he’s a bust or has had injury issues.  That eliminates Santander unless no one else steps up or is healthy.  But Elias is telling you that Santander will be traded...but he has to perform and stay healthy.  Can’t trade someone who isn’t on the field.

And then Hays and Diaz are complete wild cards.  Zero idea what to truly expect out of them.  My only expectation is that they both spend more time rehabbing than playing.

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11 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

I have this notion of Diaz, Hays, Santander, Mountcastle and Mancini as 5/9ths of the lineup, with Mancini --> Kjerstad pretty clockwork in 1.5-2 years (and maybe 10 extra games).

I know Diaz has questions, but still peg him a couple ticks beyond Mullins and Stewart.   He only has to be what, 80%?, as good at both of Mullins/Stewart's respective strengths for the 2-way upside to get him an edge.  At least find out if the psychobabble stuff plays out in 2021.

As a group, these current five just all hit me about the same, ensuring the lineup around Rutschman has some assets from Day 1.   Is anyone here better than all the rest?   Worse?   It's like half the offense is Dean Kremer.

Hays's CF defense is the flimsiest part of it to me, but Mullins is on hand and he fits this group like a glove.

Diaz v. Santander for most Oriole WAR next few years is I think kind of a fun prop bet entering this year.

Obviously the hope is Ryan Mountcastle makes this a take that ages very badly, and later Kjerstad proves simply a different tier of player. 

What’s wrong with Hays’ defense? If he’s still eligible, I expect he’s still a ROY candidate.

Mullins is a good 4OF if he can keep hitting as he did.

the youngest guys who are most likely to contribute are the most likely to stay. Mancini doesn’t have any value until he shows he’s fully recovered. Santander will probably be traded, the only question is when.

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I expect Mancini and Santander to be gone by the time the team is competitive again. I think an OF with Mountcastle, Hays, Diaz is the most likely future OF but if we’re lucky Mountcastle will be moved to 1B or DH once Mancini is gone and a better fielding LF ends up there. Maybe Kjerstad or Stowers? If Mullins figures it out he could push Hays to LF also. I think it will ultimately work itself out. I’m more worried about what the hell they do in the infield. Any potential impact prospect outside of Rutschman is too far away to even project possibly having a major league career. Just gotta hope at least one of Henderson or Westburg move quickly. 

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11 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

I have this notion of Diaz, Hays, Santander, Mountcastle and Mancini as 5/9ths of the lineup, with Mancini --> Kjerstad pretty clockwork in 1.5-2 years (and maybe 10 extra games).

I know Diaz has questions, but still peg him a couple ticks beyond Mullins and Stewart.   He only has to be what, 80%?, as good at both of Mullins/Stewart's respective strengths for the 2-way upside to get him an edge.  At least find out if the psychobabble stuff plays out in 2021.

As a group, these current five just all hit me about the same, ensuring the lineup around Rutschman has some assets from Day 1.   Is anyone here better than all the rest?   Worse?   It's like half the offense is Dean Kremer.

Hays's CF defense is the flimsiest part of it to me, but Mullins is on hand and he fits this group like a glove.

Diaz v. Santander for most Oriole WAR next few years is I think kind of a fun prop bet entering this year.

Obviously the hope is Ryan Mountcastle makes this a take that ages very badly, and later Kjerstad proves simply a different tier of player. 

I've said it before... I think Santander gets traded. Trey Mancini would be anathema (is that the right word?) to trade him, given... EVERYTHING. Anthony, "Tony" as Hyder calls him, is expendable only because of our glut of GOOD OF prospects. And Santander probably has the most trade value. Young, controlled (and cheap), semi-proven. You ought to be able to get one GOOD prospect for him. Or two 17-year-old international prospects...

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5 hours ago, wildcard said:

Kjerstad probably begins at Delmarva if not rookie ball.  He has potential but is too far away to be Mancini's replacement.

If Kjerstad were Alex Bregman, his corresponding debut date would be 6.5 months from now.

The 2021 Orioles aren't the 2016 Astros, plus the 2020 of it all, but if we hold Mancini for 2022 and he isn't ready to unseat the weakest link of this group by OD 2023, that will be very not good.   Fully operational Heston Kjerstad factors into a late 2022 push, I hope.

I agree too far away if you are just anticipating Mancini July sell here, but with health/performance I will be hoping by July 31 the club is looking to hold good 2022 players.   I could imagine Tyler Nevin as a Renato-like bridge if Trey gets a better 2021 team this summer.   Certainly if pennies need to be shaved for 2022 for <anything, really>, there could be the thing where AAAA slugger Nevin can do 75% of the Mancini things for 10% of the cost.

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9 hours ago, scOtt said:

I've said it before... I think Santander gets traded. Trey Mancini would be anathema (is that the right word?) to trade him, given... EVERYTHING. Anthony, "Tony" as Hyder calls him, is expendable only because of our glut of GOOD OF prospects. And Santander probably has the most trade value. Young, controlled (and cheap), semi-proven. You ought to be able to get one GOOD prospect for him. Or two 17-year-old international prospects...

If cleveland isn’t completely punting this season, they should be camped out at Elias’ house asking for Santander.

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Just now, Philip said:

If cleveland isn’t completely punting this season, they should be camped out at Elias’ house asking for Santander.

That's the best case scenario, desperate suitors!

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30 minutes ago, scOtt said:

That's the best case scenario, desperate suitors!

The problem is that cleveland probably IS punting this season.

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On 1/13/2021 at 7:18 AM, Sports Guy said:

But the reality is you have 3 guys who can’t stay healthy and a 4th coming off of cancer.  
...
Kjerstad will be up here within 2 years..either that or he’s a bust or has had injury issues.  That eliminates Santander unless no one else steps up or is healthy.  But Elias is telling you that Santander will be traded...but he has to perform and stay healthy.  Can’t trade someone who isn’t on the field.

And then Hays and Diaz are complete wild cards.  Zero idea what to truly expect out of them.  My only expectation is that they both spend more time rehabbing than playing.

I don't understand your post. How is Elias telling us that Santander will be traded? Genuinely asking.

 

Don't get me wrong, I get the backstory re: a bunch of other outfield prospects, but I also get the risk (and so do you, as you noted above). That's why I'm not personally convinced that he does get traded. I'm happy if he does though because it likely means the other guys are working out to some degree or another.

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4 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I don't understand your post. How is Elias telling us that Santander will be traded? Genuinely asking.

 

Don't get me wrong, I get the backstory re: a bunch of other outfield prospects, but I also get the risk (and so do you, as you noted above). That's why I'm not personally convinced that he does get traded. I'm happy if he does though because it likely means the other guys are working out to some degree or another.

Because he’s telling you that he wants to build inventory and that he doesn’t care about winning right now.  He’s telling you that his focus is on the long term, not the short term.  He is telling you that money is an issue.

Everything he has said and done, including drafting a player #2 that plays his position, is saying Santander isn’t a long term option for us.  
 

It doesn’t mean things can’t/won’t change but this is what he is saying right now and has been saying since he got here.
 

 

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