Mancini, Santander to exchange arbitration figures with O’s today

[MurphDogg]

Elias confirms the O's will go to hearing with Santander. Still waiting on the numbers from each side.

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Elias confirms the O's will go to hearing with Santander. Still waiting on the numbers from each side.

We’ll see.    I feel like the O’s have settled before the hearing date a couple of times since Elias got here.   

[wildcard]

59 minutes ago, Sanfran327 said:

How much do you think it hurt Elias' soul to spend that kind of money on one player? He probably wanted to stay under that figure for the whole infield.

I don't think that hurt Elias' soul at all.   Just doing his job.   We all want the best for Mancini, Elias included.  But the rebuild strategy being what it is if Elias gets a good offer at the deadline in a non winning season this year, he will trade Mancini.

[OrioleDog]

8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't think that hurt Elias' soul at all.   Just doing his job.   We all want the best for Mancini, Elias included.  But the rebuild strategy being what it is if Elias gets a good offer at the deadline in a non winning season this year, he will trade Mancini.

I hope it doesn't come to this, but Good Play + Punting 2022 + Astro Pariah Theory (for any player who can pick their employer) makes Houston a first-tier landing spot if Dusty can keep them in it.   Either faking a corner, or if Yordan knees still bad.

I more like the one where Bregman, Correa and Altuve are our infield in 18 months - who needs "thoroughbreds" then?

[scOtt]

2 hours ago, weams said:

 

Thought there'd be one signed at least.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, weams said:

 

That makes sense for all involved. Looking forward to seeing a healthy Trey next season on the field.

[scOtt]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

That makes sense for all involved. Looking forward to seeing a healthy Trey next season on the field.

VERY looking forward! I hope there are fans in the stands for Baltimore opening day.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Nice of the O's.

Pretty standard for a player who missed the year for medical/injury reasons.    It was interesting to see Josh Bell, who made $4.8 mm last year, got a raise to $6.35 mm coming off a .669 OPS, -0.4 rWAR season.    

[MurphDogg]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Pretty standard for a player who missed the year for medical/injury reasons.    It was interesting to see Josh Bell, who made $4.8 mm last year, got a raise to $6.35 mm coming off a .669 OPS, -0.4 rWAR season.  

To be fair, he didn't actually make $4.8M last year, he made 37 percent of that. Tough for a guy to not get a bump because of poor performance in a 60 game season.

Sort of the opposite situation with Santander, how much weight to put on a GOOD 60 game season.

[weams]

 

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, weams said:

 

Odds they trade him before the hearing?

 

[Frobby]

57 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Odds they trade him before the hearing?

 

Not high.   There’s not enough money involved for it to be a big deal whether he wins or loses his case.   

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, MurphDogg said:

To be fair, he didn't actually make $4.8M last year, he made 37 percent of that. Tough for a guy to not get a bump because of poor performance in a 60 game season.

Sort of the opposite situation with Santander, how much weight to put on a GOOD 60 game season.

Really, a good 37-game season.  Since he’s in his first year of arbitration, I think they’ll sort of lump 2019-20 together in evaluating what he’s worth.   

I’m really a bit surprised this didn’t settle.   It’ll be interesting to hear what the bid and ask were.   
 

[OrioleDog]

Feinsand reporting a 375K delta:

 

[Frobby]

8 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

Feinsand reporting a 375K delta:

 

My offhand reaction is that Santander is likely to win if they take this to a hearing.  This year,  MLBTR uses two methodologies to estimate what the player will get.   The first one ignores that the season was shortened and just looks at what the player would have gotten if he’d had the same season he did.    By that method Santander gets $1.7 mm.   The second method takes the player’s stats and projects them to a 162 game season.    By that method Santander gets $3.0 mm.    Just based on casual observation, most players have been getting the midpoint of the two methods, or higher.    So that would put Santander at $2.35 mm+.   His $2.475 mm ask is within $125 k of that midpoint, while the O’s are $250 k below.    Advantage Santander.

Now, this assumes MLBTR’s methodologies aren’t way off base for Santander, as they occasionally are (e.g. Mancini and Villar last year).    I need to think about that more, but offhand, the estimates seem pretty good to me.   In the last two years he’s produced 3.1 rWAR and .261/.302/.505 with 31 HR and 91 RBI in 130 games.  I’d pay $2.475 mm for that and say thanks very much.