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Frobby

Mancini, Santander to exchange arbitration figures with O’s today

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17 hours ago, Frobby said:

We’ll see.    I feel like the O’s have settled before the hearing date a couple of times since Elias got here.   

I couldn’t find any examples of this happening, so I retract my comment.   

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

My offhand reaction is that Santander is likely to win if they take this to a hearing.  This year,  MLBTR uses two methodologies to estimate what the player will get.   The first one ignores that the season was shortened and just looks at what the player would have gotten if he’d had the same season he did.    By that method Santander gets $1.7 mm.   The second method takes the player’s stats and projects them to a 162 game season.    By that method Santander gets $3.0 mm.    Just based on casual observation, most players have been getting the midpoint of the two methods, or higher.    So that would put Santander at $2.35 mm+.   His $2.475 mm ask is within $125 k of that midpoint, while the O’s are $250 k below.    Advantage Santander.

Now, this assumes MLBTR’s methodologies aren’t way off base for Santander, as they occasionally are (e.g. Mancini and Villar last year).    I need to think about that more, but offhand, the estimates seem pretty good to me.   In the last two years he’s produced 3.1 rWAR and .261/.302/.505 with 31 HR and 91 RBI in 130 games.  I’d pay $2.475 mm for that and say thanks very much.

Injuries are an issue here though.

And btw, while I know there will be people who say the Os should just cave in and meet him in the middle of something, understand that with him being a super 2 guy, a few hundred thousand now could mean millions over the course of the next 3 years.  

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4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Injuries are an issue here though.

And btw, while I know there will be people who say the Os should just cave in and meet him in the middle of something, understand that with him being a super 2 guy, a few hundred thousand now could mean millions over the course of the next 3 years.  

It’s a pretty small difference.   I doubt the outcome will have much effect on future years in his case.   His performance will have a lot more impact.   

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5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s a pretty small difference.   I doubt the outcome will have much effect on future years in his case.   His performance will have a lot more impact.   

Well of course it will but it definitely has long term impact, that’s per of the reason teams fight for these things.

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51 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well of course it will but it definitely has long term impact, that’s per of the reason teams fight for these things.

They do fight, but honestly I think they usually fight over bigger gaps than this.   Plus, I think they’re on the losing side, and by your own logic if they lose the effect will be multiplied in future years.    

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6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

They do fight, but honestly I think they usually fight over bigger gaps than this.   Plus, I think they’re on the losing side, and by your own logic if they lose the effect will be multiplied in future years.    

They went to arbitration with Joseph over 300K.

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10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They went to arbitration with Joseph over 300K.

They did, but as I recall they did offer a compromise and Joseph foolishly rejected it.    This was after his 0 RBI season and he foolishly thought he was going to get $1 mm in his first year of arbitration after that performance. Bad decision.   

The O’s have a very good track record in arbitration but did lose the last one they contested, to Brad Brach.  
 

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On 1/16/2021 at 8:42 AM, Sports Guy said:

Injuries are an issue here though.

And btw, while I know there will be people who say the Os should just cave in and meet him in the middle of something, understand that with him being a super 2 guy, a few hundred thousand now could mean millions over the course of the next 3 years.  

Yeah, that could really cost another team money after he's traded.

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