How far is Baumann behind Kremer in development?

[Tony-OH]

38 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Is your educated guess about Baumann that he will be out of baseball by 2025? 

Let's say he has Zach Davies value. Decent value on the trade market.

Zach Davies was a successful major league starting pitcher at 22 years old.

[LookinUp]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Zach Davies was a successful major league starting pitcher at 22 years old.

Ok. What are the odds Baumann has similar value with 2 years left of control? If they're > negligible, say 10%, he's worth getting the extra year for. I think the odds are at least that good.

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Ok. What are the odds Baumann has similar value with 2 years left of control? If they're > negligible, say 10%, he's worth getting the extra year for. I think the odds are at least that good.

Again, if it's keeping him in the minors for a few weeks then sure, but if it's significant time, like more than six weeks, then no, I don't see Elias doing that. 

[Can_of_corn]

53 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Is your educated guess about Baumann that he will be out of baseball by 2025? 

Let's say he has Zach Davies value. Decent value on the trade market.

Folks love comping guys to Zach Davies.  I think the odds of Baumann running up 10 rWAR is less than 10%, even if it is better than Well's chances.

 

[OrioleDog]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Folks love comping guys to Zach Davies.  I think the odds of Baumann running up 10 rWAR is less than 10%, even if it is better than Well's chances.

 

Survivorship!   Plus the man can really pitch.

I still think he's somewhat the guy where he pitches for you once in the playoffs, and OMG what do we have to do to our roster.

Here's a fun Cot's 2021/2022 juxtaposition:

Baez, Javier	ss	2011	1	9	28.213	5.089	2 / 3	Wasserman		1 yr/$11.65M (21)		$11,650,000	FA
Davies, Zach	rhp-s	2011	26	785	28.145	5.020	2 / 3			1 yr/$8.63M (21)		$8,630,000	FA

[LookinUp]

51 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Folks love comping guys to Zach Davies.  I think the odds of Baumann running up 10 rWAR is less than 10%, even if it is better than Well's chances.

 

There's a lot of ways to comp players, one of which is WAR. Years ago Michael Wacha was a post season hero. I haven't looked, but bet his WAR isn't as high as Davies.

I'd still have rather had Wacha, the power arm that was dominant in high leverage situations. Baumann has that profile. It's a profile where I have no idea if he'll have the staying power of Davies, but still a profile I'd rather have.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

At some point don't you have to make an educated guess as to if he will have value in the back end of his control?  How many players even have six to seven year careers?  If he's out of baseball by 2025 what good does that extra year of control do you?

I looked at that a couple of years ago.   More than 50% of debuting players don’t make it 5 years, more than 80% don’t make it 10.

 

[Ruzious]

On 1/19/2021 at 12:23 PM, LookinUp said:

I understand your perspective, but I don't think I'd handle it that way if I were Elias in the context of this team (not a contender). Zimmermann could get a shot and so could the rule V guys. I would only promote Baumann for that role if the other guys clearly don't belong. 

I know he'll be 31, but I'd still value that year with a high-upside arm. 

I'm not saying your wrong but... okay yeah I'm saying that way of thinking is wrong.  I think it's horrible to hold back a player like that - for the players sake and for the team's sake.  At some point, if things like that happen holding back a player's career by several years - a player's going to sue MLB and even the Players Association for agreeing to a system that allows it.  

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

I'm not saying your wrong but... okay yeah I'm saying that way of thinking is wrong.  I think it's horrible to hold back a player like that - for the players sake and for the team's sake.  At some point, if things like that happen holding back a player's career by several years - a player's going to sue MLB and even the Players Association for agreeing to a system that allows it.  

I don't think that is going to happen.  At least not successfully.

However I do expect changes in the players' favor in the next CBA.

 

[Frobby]

29 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think that is going to happen.  At least not successfully.

However I do expect changes in the players' favor in the next CBA.

 

I don’t really think this applies to Baumann anyway.   It’s not like this guy spent a year at AAA and excelled there.   He had a really good half season at AA in 2019 and then had to be shut down early at the alternate site this year.   Sure some guys like that can jump straight to the majors, but honestly I’d just make sure he’s healthy, let him start the year in AAA and consider moving him up if he’s pitching well there.   I’d probably be advocating that even if the service time issue didn’t exist, but the service time issue makes that a pretty easy call IMO.   I don’t consider it to be holding him back to test him at a level of the minors where he’s never pitched before.   

[wildcard]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t really think this applies to Baumann anyway.   It’s not like this guy spent a year at AAA and excelled there.   He had a really good half season at AA in 2019 and then had to be shut down early at the alternate site this year.   Sure some guys like that can jump straight to the majors, but honestly I’d just make sure he’s healthy, let him start the year in AAA and consider moving him up if he’s pitching well there.   I’d probably be advocating that even if the service time issue didn’t exist, but the service time issue makes that a pretty easy call IMO.   I don’t consider it to be holding him back to test him at a level of the minors where he’s never pitched before.   

Nicely said.

[Ruzious]

16 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think that is going to happen.  At least not successfully.

However I do expect changes in the players' favor in the next CBA.

 

I don't know how much incentive the Players Assn has to improve the situation for minor leaguers - considering minor leaguers aren't members.  The longer they stay in the minors, the more current members get to keep their jobs.  

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

I don't know how much incentive the Players Assn has to improve the situation for minor leaguers - considering minor leaguers aren't members.  The longer they stay in the minors, the more current members get to keep their jobs.  

I think they care, to some degree, about service time being manipulated and free agency delayed.

Not as if holding a player back a few weeks for an extra year of team control provides a job for a ML vet.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think they care, to some degree, about service time being manipulated and free agency delayed.

Not as if holding a player back a few weeks for an extra year of team control provides a job for a ML vet.

I believe they were very upset about the Cubs holding Kris Bryant down.

[Tony-OH]

18 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don’t really think this applies to Baumann anyway.   It’s not like this guy spent a year at AAA and excelled there.   He had a really good half season at AA in 2019 and then had to be shut down early at the alternate site this year.   Sure some guys like that can jump straight to the majors, but honestly I’d just make sure he’s healthy, let him start the year in AAA and consider moving him up if he’s pitching well there.   I’d probably be advocating that even if the service time issue didn’t exist, but the service time issue makes that a pretty easy call IMO.   I don’t consider it to be holding him back to test him at a level of the minors where he’s never pitched before.   

Nothing here to argue with, but if Baumann looks to be healthy, pitching well and successful this spring, I would not be surprised to see him start the year in the rotation or at least once the team needs a 5th starter.