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Frobby

Five player comps for Anthony Santander's arbitration case

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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

OBP and his inability to walk enough is arguably a bigger Achilles heel.

Agree, but at least he improved from .261/.297 to .261/.315.   

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9 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

Sisco and Stewart atop this list representative to me of watchers who aren't quite sure they can touch MLB pitches regularly.

If a strike is a pitcher's pitch are you not better off taking it?

You get three strikes, make him throw it two more times.

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11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

 

If a strike is a pitcher's pitch, are you not better off taking it ???

You get 3 strikes, make him throw it 2 more times.

 

o

 

"Great hitters know that they don't have to swing until there are 2 strikes on them."

 

Jim Palmer, In-Game Commentary on MASN

o

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1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

If a strike is a pitcher's pitch are you not better off taking it?

You get three strikes, make him throw it two more times.

Absolutely.  I'm sure the official Norfolk Ryan Mountcastle Swing Decision tool kit isn't as crude as O-Swing%.   Though there I think not swinging at balls is a lot more cut and dried.

Just on that Orioles page though, If Sisco and Stewart are discerning the right strikes, and only trying for those, their Chris Davis-lagging 75-ish Zone Contact percentages don't exactly shine.   

You or I could post a 0.0 O-Swing%.

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1 minute ago, OrioleDog said:

Absolutely.  I'm sure the official Norfolk Ryan Mountcastle Swing Decision tool kit isn't as crude as O-Swing%.   Though there I think not swinging at balls is a lot more cut and dried.

Just on that Orioles page though, If Sisco and Stewart are discerning the right strikes, and only trying for those, their Chris Davis-lagging 75-ish Zone Contact percentages don't exactly shine.   

You or I could post a 0.0 O-Swing%.

I was pretty close my one year of little league.

I was good at leaning into inside pitches tho.

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22 hours ago, Frobby said:

I spent part of the last two days compiling a database of 78 of the higher profile arbitration-eligible players, who either were projected to make $5 mm+, or $2mm+ if this was their first year of arbitration.   In each case, I tracked their service time, their position, how much total WAR they accumulated before being eligible for arbitration the first time, how much WAR they had in the season immediately preceding their first arb-eligible season and in each subsequent season, and what their arb-eligible salaries have been.    I’m hoping to use it in the future to develop comps for arb-eligible players and analyze whether the team or the player has the better case in the cases that actually go to arbitration.  

My first foray into this is Anthony Santander.    He has demanded $2.475 mm and the O’s have offered $2.100 mm.    There aren’t any great comps for Santander due to his injury history and the fact that last season was strike shortened.   Santander has played many fewer major league games than almost any position player who is arb-eligible.    He was worth 1.7 rWAR last year playing only 37 games of a pandemic-shortened 60-game season.   He’s been worth 2.5 rWAR cumulatively in his career, playing just 177 games, accruing a slash line of .252/.292/467 with 32 HR and 99 RBI.   He’s been stronger than that over the last two seasons, a factor that weighs pretty heavily in his case.

I’ve identified 5 arb-eligible outfielders who are comps for Santander.     I am listing them here in order of their Arb 1 salary, from highest to lowest:

Teoscar Hernandez, $4.325 mm.   Like Santander, Hernandez is eligible for arbitration for the first time in 2021.   Also like Santander, Hernandez had a breakout season in 2020, posting .919 OPS compared to his .780 career mark previously.   His 1.5 rWAR in 50 games was slightly less than Santander’s 1.7 in 37 games, though his OPS was higher.   He rates as a below average outfielder though he has played a decent bit of CF along with both corners, mostly LF.   I see two big advantages for Hernandez.   First, he has more service time, 3.097 to 2.162 years of service.   Second, he has played a lot more in his pre-arb years, 377 games compared to 177, accruing 3.8 rWAR compared to Santander’s 2.5.   For those reasons, it is not too surprising that he will be earning almost $2 mm more than Santander no matter how the latter’s arbitration comes out.

Kyle Schwarber, $3.39 mm.    Scwharber was an Arb-1 in 2019, after a 1.8 rWAR campaign in which he slashed .238/.356/.467 with 26 HR and 61 RBI.   Through that point he had accrued 3.2 rWAR and slashed .228/.339/.470 in 337 games and had accrued 3.086 years of service.   He’s considered a poor defensive corner OF.

Nomar Mazara, $3.30 mm.   Mazara was an Arb-1 in 2019, after an 0.7 rWAR campaign in which he hit .258/.317/.436 with 20 HR and 77 RBI.    Through then he had accumulated only 0.6 rWAR (net negative before 2019) and slashed .258/.320/.425 in 3.000 years of service, playing in 421 games.  He is another below average defender, playing RF.   

Jesse Winker, $3.15 mm.   Winker was arb-eligible for the first time this offseason.    Last year, he posted a 1.3 rWAR, .255/.388/.544 season with 12 HR and 23 RBI in 54 games.   In his career he has totaled 2.5 rWAR, slashing .280/.380/.479 in 3.080 years of service.   He appears to be below average defensively.

Brian Goodwin, $2.2 mm.   Goodwin was an Arb-1 in 2020, after a 2.2 rWAR campaign in which he slashed .262/.326/.470 with 17 homers and 47 RBI.    Through then he had accumulated 2.5 rWAR in his career, posting .255/.320/.461 in 307 games and had accrued 3.019 years of service.   Again, Goodwin is a below average defender.   

Bottom line, the fact that Santander has played only 177 major league games makes I really hard to compare him to anyone.   But in terms of his production in the year before his Arb-1 season, and his total WAR through that season, his production was pretty comparable to these players even though he had played a lot less.    Overall I think these comps tend to support Santander's case at $2.475 mm.

You do make  several points about him not playing a lot of games because of injuries, that he didn't play a full season in 2020, and that because of that there are not any good comps.   But you seem to ignore all that in reaching your conclusion.  I really don't know how you reached the conclusion that him being injury prone which has led to him playing less supports his case for a higher arbitration award.  I think the O's have a pretty strong case when they are offering to more than triple his salary after he only played 37 games in 2020.

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18 hours ago, Philip said:

The rebuttal to the injury argument is that he remains the Orioles most valuable player and one of their two most trade able assets.

And it’s doubtful that the difference will have a significant impact on the trade return.

I actually think his arb price correlates with his trade value. One reason teams wouldn't trade a ton for him is you don't have confidence he can play 150 games for you. Same reason his arb price is lower. It's a reflection of what he's actually done, not a projection of what he can do. If I were a team looking for a buy low guy, Santander would be on my list. If he plays a lot for you, you can get a lot of excess value.

17 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

OBP and his inability to walk enough is arguably a bigger Achilles heel.

There's no right answer, but if Santander does nothing different except get on the field for 150 games this year, he's probably a 3+ WAR player (assuming the defense is real). If he gets on the field AND somehow dramatically improves his OBP, he's a certain all star. I never expect the latter, but I do expect that he can play a lot of games. 

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Why would you expect that he can play a lot of games?  Although, in asking you that question, I don’t know how you are defining a lot of games.

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3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Why would you expect that he can play a lot of games?  Although, in asking you that question, I don’t know how you are defining a lot of games.

Because I don't buy into "injury prone" as a rule. If there's a degenerative issue, I see it, but some guys age into a lot of injuries and others age out of them. Others just never are the same again. 

I concede that Santander has to prove he can stay healthy though. That's why I said it was his achilles heel, and not the OBP.

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1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

Because I don't buy into "injury prone" as a rule. If there's a degenerative issue, I see it, but some guys age into a lot of injuries and others age out of them. Others just never are the same again. 

I concede that Santander has to prove he can stay healthy though. That's why I said it was his achilles heel, and not the OBP.

Two legs, two heels.  😉

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Anthony Santander annual posting up report card grades, Age 21-25

2016: A

2017-2018: our Rule V pick is "injured"

2019-2020: I dunno....C  ?

This year's Forecaster book only has 136 days for 2017's, ahem, strained elbow, and the oblique last September on his 5-year injury log.   I can get my man being pretty pumped he was blasting Max Scherzer last summer.

 

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2 hours ago, LookinUp said:

Because I don't buy into "injury prone" as a rule. If there's a degenerative issue, I see it, but some guys age into a lot of injuries and others age out of them. Others just never are the same again. 

I concede that Santander has to prove he can stay healthy though. That's why I said it was his achilles heel, and not the OBP.

Doesn’t he also have to prove he can have a good OBP?

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18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Doesn’t he also have to prove he can have a good OBP?

Does he?  If he provides plus power and plus defense he doesn't need good OBP to have value. 

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5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Does he?  If he provides plus power and plus defense he doesn't need good OBP to have value. 

I think people are going too far on the “plus defense” aspect of things personally.

But sure, if he can play plus defense and slug 480-520, he is definitely valuable.  Him being valuable isn’t really the question.  It’s how valuable is he.

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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I think people are going too far on the “plus defense” aspect of things personally.

But sure, if he can play plus defense and slug 480-520, he is definitely valuable.  Him being valuable isn’t really the question.  It’s how valuable is he.

You aren't going to find many players that generate value in every aspect of the game.

I'm not attached to Santander but his OBP isn't a make or break issue for me.

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