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Tony-OH

Beyond the 2020 Top 30

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3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think you misplaced your decimal point.

You don't actually think that Wells has a one in five chance of racking up 10 career rWAR do you?

You’re right, 20% is too high.   Took a quick look and something like 10% of all pitchers who debuted from 2009-11 had a 10 WAR career.   I do expect Wells to pitch in the majors but his odds of having a 10 WAR career are probably below that 10% average.    And, at this point I’d think Davies might end up well over 10 WAR, considering he’s at 9.7 through age  27.     He might hit 20 WAR if he’s lucky and remains healthy.   

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4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I hope not. The Orioles have Akin, Kremer, Zimmermann, and Baumann all ready for major league opportunities behind Means and Cobb in the rotation. With Kevin Smith, Zac Lowther and Alex Wells all guys that should be at AAA this season and if they pitch well, could be worth giving opportunities as well. 

I don't think Lopez or Goudeau will be in the rotation, and I really doubt Elias that Elias is worried about bringing in a Milone-type of guy unless it's on a minor league contract and if a slew of injuries requires a veteran to take some starts until the latter guys are ready.

Boy I hope that is right. We’ve got a ton of pictures who need to get a chance, and not just the guys you mentioned, but Smith and Mattson and Scoler(sp) and Wells. 
they all need innings.

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7 hours ago, wildcard said:

I don't think Elias will wait until the season begins, have a lot of injuries to the pitching staff and then go look for a veteran starter.  I think he does add a veteran on a minor league contract probably with an opt date.   That is what he did with Milone and LeBlanc last season.

Zimmermann is on the bubble of being in the rotation vs beginning the season at AAA IMO.   He needs a good spring to go north with the O's.

He very well could, but I don't see them making the team out of spring training unless injuries occur to the young pitchers. 2021 to me is a transition year where the young guys will get there chances.

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19 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

He very well could, but I don't see them making the team out of spring training unless injuries occur to the young pitchers. 2021 to me is a transition year where the young guys will get there chances.

If they are deemed ready.  Means, Cobb, Kremer and Akin have been deemed ready.  I am not sure about Zimmermann.   He has not spent much time at AAA and he didn't do well in the small amount of time he had in the majors.   Elias/Holt will be watching in ST.  Is he ready or does he need some more time at AAA.  Elias and Holt will be the judges.

I agree this is a transition year.  Its not about winning so guys will get chances when deemed ready.  But it may not be at the beginning of the season for Zimmermann, Baumann, Lowther or Wells.

But I think Tyler Wells and Sceroler have a better than average chance for the Rule 5 guys to make it as long/mid relievers.  If Holt thinks he can make them decent over the season they can increase the starter depth in 2022.   Winning does not matter in 2021.

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Would really like to hear any intel on Placencia from the 2019 list. Any leads on where they will put him this year? High OBP SS, yes, please!

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1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Would really like to hear any intel on Placencia from the 2019 list. Any leads on where they will put him this year? High OBP SS, yes, please!

Honestly, we don't have much more information and the lost season last year makes it even worse. He'll play at 19-years old and with so many high draft picks ahead of him needing playing time between Low-A and High-A, I suspect he will start the year in the GCL League. 

With no NY-Penn League anymore, the Orioles will only have one rookie league team in the GCL Orioles so playing time will be at a premium. The 1st year player draft next year has been moved back to July 11-13 so that allows for some more playing time for guys.

Now, the rub here is that the Orioles could choose to start Maikol Hernandez in the GCL if they think he's advanced enough to handle that. That could move Placencia to second base if the Orioles are high enough on him to bring him over to the states which considering the options right now, makes sense that they will. 

 

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25 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Honestly, we don't have much more information and the lost season last year makes it even worse. He'll play at 19-years old and with so many high draft picks ahead of him needing playing time between Low-A and High-A, I suspect he will start the year in the GCL League. 

With no NY-Penn League anymore, the Orioles will only have one rookie league team in the GCL Orioles so playing time will be at a premium. The 1st year player draft next year has been moved back to July 11-13 so that allows for some more playing time for guys.

Now, the rub here is that the Orioles could choose to start Maikol Hernandez in the GCL if they think he's advanced enough to handle that. That could move Placencia to second base if the Orioles are high enough on him to bring him over to the states which considering the options right now, makes sense that they will. 

 

Hopefully it's one of those circumstances where he's so good that he forces his way state-side and into playing time. 

I can't wait until they're playing games again.

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8 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Hopefully it's one of those circumstances where he's so good that he forces his way state-side and into playing time. 

I can't wait until they're playing games again.

Agreed. I actually like see both him and Hernandez sharing some time at SS or if his arm isn't as strong, slide him over to 2B and see what they look like together.

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40 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

With no NY-Penn League anymore, the Orioles will only have one rookie league team in the GCL Orioles so playing time will be at a premium. The 1st year player draft next year has been moved back to July 11-13 so that allows for some more playing time for guys.

I understand that the O’s are planning to field two GCL teams this year.    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mlb.com/amp/news/orioles-minor-league-affiliates-for-2021.html

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2020/12/os-expected-to-field-two-gcl-teams-notes-on-shortstop-and-more.html

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6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I understand that the O’s are planning to field two GCL teams this year.    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mlb.com/amp/news/orioles-minor-league-affiliates-for-2021.html

Yep, you're right, I do now remember reading that Elias said he would like to have two GCL teams when discussing losing a current team. Unless I missed it though, I haven't heard it officially yet though. Guess I can check.

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1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

Yep, you're right, I do now remember reading that Elias said he would like to have two GCL teams when discussing losing a current team. Unless I missed it though, I haven't heard it officially yet though. Guess I can check.

I would think a lot of teams would want to double up on the GCL this year in view of the lost MiL season last year.    So, we’ll have to see if the GCL can accommodate that.  

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10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I would think a lot of teams would want to double up on the GCL this year in view of the lost MiL season last year.    So, we’ll have to see if the GCL can accommodate that.  

I'd like to see them expand the number of games in the GCL. Perhaps make it a May - Sep League.

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