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BA Releases Top 100 - 5 O's in top 70

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Nice.

I find it interesting that Heston Kjerstad is ranked that highly. 

I don't think he was that well regarded before the draft and he certainly didn't do anything after the draft.  Just a reaction to being drafted 1-2?

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Same number of top 100 prospects as the Rays (1. Franco, 17. Arozarena, 23. Patiño, 56. Brujan, 100. McClanahan).

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4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Nice.

I find it interesting that Heston Kjerstad is ranked that highly. 

I don't think he was that well regarded before the draft and he certainly didn't do anything after the draft.  Just a reaction to being drafted 1-2?

That was my initial thought as well. And 62 is not a placement to sneeze at either. Wasn't too long ago players drafted by the Orioles had to show extra well to gain top prospect status.

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16 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Nice.

I find it interesting that Heston Kjerstad is ranked that highly. 

I don't think he was that well regarded before the draft and he certainly didn't do anything after the draft.  Just a reaction to being drafted 1-2?

I agree that it is interesting, particularly since he hasn’t done anything formal with the team. Several draft analysts have given Kjerstad another look since the initial commentary after the draft. Some, like Jim Callis, have admitted they underrated him somewhat. None have said he was as talented as Austin Martin, but admitted he belonged in the top 5 or so picks. Industry chatter among scouts they speak with must have changed their opinions, I guess.
 

I also think they give a little more credence to the belief that Mike Elias is a very good talent evaluator and a shrewd decision maker. I wonder if Mountcastle’s unexpected performance by some bolsters the industry opinion of the Orioles player development group. 

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These prospect lists are largely meaningless.  There's very little difference between the 70th rated prospect and the 100th rated prospect.

 

Sorry, I just couldn't resist. 

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Just now, Moose Milligan said:

These prospect lists are largely meaningless.  There's very little difference between the 70th rated prospect and the 100th rated prospect.

 

Sorry, I just couldn't resist. 

All the O's prospects are ranked higher than 70th so your point isn't relevant.

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2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

All the O's prospects are ranked higher than 70th so your point isn't relevant.

Well, I just want to be like you.  What can I say.

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On 1/18/2021 at 11:00 AM, Jammer7 said:

I agree that it is interesting, particularly since he hasn’t done anything formal with the team. Several draft analysts have given Kjerstad another look since the initial commentary after the draft. Some, like Jim Callis, have admitted they underrated him somewhat. None have said he was as talented as Austin Martin, but admitted he belonged in the top 5 or so picks. Industry chatter among scouts they speak with must have changed their opinions, I guess.
 

I also think they give a little more credence to the belief that Mike Elias is a very good talent evaluator and a shrewd decision maker. I wonder if Mountcastle’s unexpected performance by some bolsters the industry opinion of the Orioles player development group. 

I think what some people fail to realize is how much the short season affected the normal draft rankings. Some guys like Kjerstad and Servideo were off to really good starts and had they kept it up through the entire season, they may have been ranked higher by pundits. It's hard to know whether they were off to great starts because they were playing the normal soft portion of the early season schedule, or was it genuine improvement. 

Austin Hays is a good example of how a guy's great junior year shot up his draft stock, but because it was his first real success, some were still a little bit of a non believer so he was available in the 3rd round still. If he only had part of a junior season, would he even had been drafted in a five round draft?

All of these rankings have to be all considered with a grain of salt because of the lack of a minor league season and such short college and high school seasons.

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29 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

These prospect lists are largely meaningless.  There's very little difference between the 70th rated prospect and the 100th rated prospect.

 

Sorry, I just couldn't resist. 

They are only meaningless if the O's players are not on the list.

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16 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I think what some people fail to realize is how much the short season affected the normal draft rankings. Some guys like Kjerstad and Servideo were off to really good starts and had they kept it up through the entire season, they may have been ranked higher by pundits. It's hard to know were they off to great starts because they were playing the normal soft portion of the early season schedule, or was it genuine improvement. 

Austin Hays is a good example of how a guy's great junior year shot up his draft stock, but because it was his first real success, some were still a little bit of a non believer so he was available in the 3rd round still.

All of these rankings have to be all considered with a grain of salt because of the lack of a minor league season and such short college and high school seasons.

Or the more likely concern, from my perspective, is it's just a SSS. Don't want to over react to a hot streak. Every hitter who ever played has had them.

With Kjerstad, he also had some team USA moments if I remember correctly, so hopefully this is a reflection of what he is and not a hot month at the plate.

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54 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I think what some people fail to realize is how much the short season affected the normal draft rankings. Some guys like Kjerstad and Servideo were off to really good starts and had they kept it up through the entire season, they may have been ranked higher by pundits. It's hard to know were they off to great starts because they were playing the normal soft portion of the early season schedule, or was it genuine improvement. 

Austin Hays is a good example of how a guy's great junior year shot up his draft stock, but because it was his first real success, some were still a little bit of a non believer so he was available in the 3rd round still.

All of these rankings have to be all considered with a grain of salt because of the lack of a minor league season and such short college and high school seasons.

The first part was what Elias spoke of immediately after the draft. I agree. I get the SSS skepticism, but it isn’t as much for me about the stats as it is about the process that Kjerstad showed in the video I watched. The mechanics and approach were much improved. Therefore, I think the success he had is sustainable. Not as confident in Servideo, but he is a toolsy guy I like where they got him.

A guy I have cited as a big junior riser who was similar is JJ Bleday. Andrew Benintendi is a very different player, but had a meteoric rise from obscurity as a junior. 

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Kjerstad Mountcastle relative placements are a hoot these days.

The 50-150 curve height differences are small, but each rung up the Top 30 or so I feel is something, and of course Adley v. Wander if one club gets double the production of the other that is a very big deal.

Regular plug that if Kjerstad were Bregman we would see him in July.  Obviously 2021 will be 0, but for next year any of 200/400/600 PA could be in play if he is who we thought he is.

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