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Jammer7

Santander drawing interest

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3 minutes ago, interloper said:

He might! But probably not? Especially not if he can get what he perceives to be a legit SP or SS which that Rutschman team would need far more than a reliever and a RFer. 

Let's remember that while the farm system has decent depth, Elias has achieved that via, among other things like the draft and development, a lot of smaller trades of aging MLers (Milone, Cashner, Iglesias) or solid-but-still-young vets (Givens, Castro, Bundy). This has brought the floor of the farm up considerably, but not necessarily the ceiling. He hasn't yet unloaded players people would consider a future star or young stud, someone whose return can really populate the farm (or ML team) with true top level talent. 

I still think Santander and Scott have more to prove before they're in that category, but we should prepare. Because Elias is going to go after top MLB-ready prospects now using his own young major league "stars", IMO. 

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1 hour ago, interloper said:

He might! But probably not? Especially not if he can get what he perceives to be a legit SP or SS which that Rutschman team would need far more than a reliever and a RFer. 

  In 2022  I think Elias looks to win not necessarily contend.    The starters will probably be Means, Kremer, Akin, Baumann, Lowther, with the Wells, Smith and Sceroler filling in.    That will be an improvement over what we have seem in the last few years.   Cobb will be off the books Davis will be paid out as soon as the O's know how many games will be played in 2022.  Bannon may be ready to take over 2B. Hall and Rodriguez might even be up sometime later in 2022.

The need a SS and 3B.   Elias may be willing to spend 7m on each one on those in FA considering there will be fans in the stands.  

I think the switch could be flipped when Rutschman and some of the starters arrive.

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One observation on Elias's trading style so far - he held Givens for a long time, and I think won.

There's so much uncertainty around who everybody is, it would be somewhat surprising if anybody this next month met his asking price.   At least while Joc and Rosario are out there for X amount of dollars.   If the trade market thinks Santander notably better than those guys, I kind of want him on my team.

 

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I do think that if Elias decides to trade Santander, Mancini and Scott this year he is almost certainly deciding to delay our go for it date. 

Even if you think the in-house options to fill those spots are studs, you have to allow for some time to progress through the system and adjust to MLB. The very best do all of that quickly, so maybe we'll luck out, but that's hard to bet on.

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I'd like to keep Santander - at least until/if we're offered a great deal for him.  Even if you ignore his 2020 stats because of sample size, he OPS'd .773 in 2018 without getting the minor league development others did, and he clearly looked in better shape and more mature in 2020 - so it should be expected that he'd be a better all-around player.  How much better is the question, but I think it's very reasonable to expect he'll be better than an .800 OPS guy who's a little better than average defensive OFer.  I'd much prefer keeping him for another year than trading him now for a couple of decent prospects.         

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1 hour ago, Ruzious said:

I'd like to keep Santander - at least until/if we're offered a great deal for him.  Even if you ignore his 2020 stats because of sample size, he OPS'd .773 in 2018 without getting the minor league development others did, and he clearly looked in better shape and more mature in 2020 - so it should be expected that he'd be a better all-around player.  How much better is the question, but I think it's very reasonable to expect he'll be better than an .800 OPS guy who's a little better than average defensive OFer.  I'd much prefer keeping him for another year than trading him now for a couple of decent prospects.         

There is definitely something to be said to waiting a year.

If he has a healthy 2021, I would say he will be a 2-3 WAR player.  That should make him more valuable than he is now and that certainly could be part of the thinking.

My only issue with that is his injury history.  I’m willing to gamble that we can get 75-80 cents on the dollar now (compared to what a healthy 2021 could bring us) vs waiting.

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One of the reasons I wanted to hire Kim Ng is because being female, other GMs wouldn’t have a sense of how to deal with her. It brings a new and alien element into negotiations. I think it will be a benefit to her, at least initially, so I’m eager to hear about her first meaningful trade.

If the Marlins and Os discuss Santander I would love to be a fly on the wall during the chat.

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I think if we trade Santander it will:

1.  Be demoralizing to the players here.  Presumably you want to win in the next few years (though I am not sure about that), and Santander could be a significant part of the process.  He's in this group of young players you want to think about winning and trading a possibly budding all star does not send a great message. 

2.  I can't wait for the article mid season "Orioles say they are not ready to contend, meanwhile Santander, Yaz and Bundy are killing it for other teams."

3. Be selling low.

4.  Need to be for a significant package of prospects to feign off #1-3.

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8 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

I think if we trade Santander it will:

1.  Be demoralizing to the players here.  Presumably you want to win in the next few years (though I am not sure about that), and Santander could be a significant part of the process.  He's in this group of young players you want to think about winning and trading a possibly budding all star does not send a great message. 

2.  I can't wait for the article mid season "Orioles say they are not ready to contend, meanwhile Santander, Yaz and Bundy are killing it for other teams."

3. Be selling low.

4.  Need to be for a significant package of prospects to feign off #1-3.

1) how would it be any demoralizing than what they have done and how they have operated the last few years?

2) shrug

3) No it’s not

4) No it doesn’t.  How does getting a significant return change anything about #1 or #2?

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Demoralizing?

The team has played .328 ball over the past three seasons.  They traded Iglesias, they non-tendered Alberto.  You think trading Santander will be the straw the breaks the camel's back?

Please, can we just shut up about Yaz already?  NO ONE saw it coming, not even the Giants.  It was a freak thing.  For fans of one team it sucks, for the fans of another team it's great and for the fans of the other 28 it's a good story.

Do you think that if the 2021 O's field a team with Yaz, Bundy and Santander they would be contenders?  If not what difference does it make how they are playing for other teams?

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4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Demoralizing?

The team has played .328 ball over the past three seasons.  They traded Iglesias, they non-tendered Alberto.  You think trading Santander will be the straw the breaks the camel's back?

Please, can we just shut up about Yaz already?  NO ONE saw it coming, not even the Giants.  It was a freak thing.  For fans of one team it sucks, for the fans of another team it's great and for the fans of the other 28 it's a good story.

Do you think that if the 2021 O's field a team with Yaz, Bundy and Santander they would be contenders?  If not what difference does it make how they are playing for other teams?

Iglesias and alberto were recognizable veteran stopgaps, thats the difference.  Santander could be a building block.

I'm not on about Yaz.  I get it, I don't like that he was never given a chance under elias, but I get it.  And I understand for most hardcore fans like sports guy said we shrug these articles off.  That said, we will see them, they drive the narrative into a place where the orioles dont know what their doing, and that effects general sentiment about the team.  Winning solves that but I dont see that happening in the AL east for Orioles any time soon.

 

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11 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Iglesias and alberto were recognizable veteran stopgaps, thats the difference.  Santander could be a building block.

I'm not on about Yaz.  I get it, I don't like that he was never given a chance under elias, but I get it.  And I understand for most hardcore fans like sports guy said we shrug these articles off.  That said, we will see them, they drive the narrative into a place where the orioles dont know what their doing, and that effects general sentiment about the team.  Winning solves that but I dont see that happening in the AL east for Orioles any time soon.

 

Bundy could have been a building block too.  
 

The team has made no effort to bring in ML ready building blocks and are publicly telling the players, coaches and fans that they don’t care about winning.

Yet this is the move that is demoralizing?  

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43 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Bundy could have been a building block too.  
 

The team has made no effort to bring in ML ready building blocks and are publicly telling the players, coaches and fans that they don’t care about winning.

Yet this is the move that is demoralizing?  

Yes.  You come up with a guy, play with him, see him start to succeed, become friends...and he is traded away at the brink of success.

Yes.  That is demoralizing.  I get it, the team isn't making any attempts to field a competitive product, but they are trying to develop one.  So when one of those players does develop and they are shipped out.  Don't pretend the guys left over don't feel that.

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Just now, Camden_yardbird said:

Yes.  You come up with a guy, play with him, see him start to succeed, become friends...and he is traded away at the brink of success.

Yes.  That is demoralizing.  I get it, the team isn't making any attempts to field a competitive product, but they are trying to develop one.  So when one of those players does develop and they are shipped out.  Don't pretend the guys left over don't feel that.

Yea, I think this is mostly nonsense.  These guys know what the score is.  I think you are selling them short.

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