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Jammer7

Santander drawing interest

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8 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

My only point is that it wouldn’t be hard to replace Santanders offensive production.  That’s pretty much a fact.  
 

I also don’t think it’s nearly as difficult to replace Santander as an overall player...I think people on this site continue to overrate him and that’s coming from someone who does like him and does think he’s a good player.  But he’s treated as if he could become an AS level player around here and that’s not  over the top. 

FTFY

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8 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

My only point is that it wouldn’t be hard to replace Santanders offensive production.  That’s pretty much a fact.  
 

But your point leaned on the availability of Nunez (or players like him), who certainly wouldn't be available (and probably wouldn't have been available for the Os a few years ago either) if he played the OF like Santander does.

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1 minute ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

But your point leaned on the availability of Nunez (or players like him), who certainly wouldn't be available (and probably wouldn't have been available for the Os a few years ago either) if he played the OF like Santander does.

So?

Firsr of all, please stop acting like Santander is some stud defensive OFer.  He’s not.

Secondly, the larger point is that Santander is not a special offensive player.  He is good, not denying that.  But he’s not special.  His offense isn’t difficult to replace.  

Now, will he keep getting better?  Is what we saw in a SSS in 2020 a prelude of things to come?  It’s possible.  I don’t think the OBP will ever be that good but the slugging could be.  
 

But not only does he have to continue to show that improvement, he has to do it and actually play games.  Again, he has never played more than 93 ML games in any one season.  So he has to show improvement, sustain it over a full season and be healthy.

He certainly could do that.  I have never said differently.  The question is what are the odds of him doing it.  I personally don’t see them being that high but we’ll see.  
 

If we keep him, hopefully he blows up.

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18 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Why probably not?

The only reason I can come up with for why he wouldn't be ready is that Elias is still playing service time games.

You pick a bat first college player high in the first round he should be ready quickly.  If he isn't you don' messed up A-Aron.

Why would you be so confident? He didn’t play a competitive game after being drafted and hasn’t played a game in the minors. He’s certainly no Griffey who doesn’t need a stint in the minors and most thought of him as the 10th or so best prospect. He’s 2-3 years away as a realistic best case scenario. Expecting any more is just Orioles homerism Sir!

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1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

Why would you be so confident? He didn’t play a competitive game after being drafted and hasn’t played a game in the minors. He’s certainly no Griffey who doesn’t need a stint in the minors and most thought of him as the 10th or so best prospect. He’s 2-3 years away as a realistic best case scenario. Expecting any more is just Orioles homerism Sir!

Actually, you are wrong.  
 

He absolutely should be up here and ready within 2 years.  He is an advanced college hitter.  If he isn’t ready by then, it means 1 of 3 things:

1) No MiL season in 2021 again

2) Injured

3) He sucks 

But if he is the player the Os think he is, he absolutely will be ready to be up here sometime in 2022.

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Just now, Sports Guy said:

Actually, you are wrong.  
 

He absolutely should be up here and ready within 2 years.  He is an advanced college hitter.  If he isn’t ready by then, it means 1 of 3 things:

1) No MiL season in 2021 again

2) Injured

3) He sucks 

But if he is the player the Os think he is, he absolutely will be ready to be up here sometime in 2022.

I don’t share your confidence 

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8 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I don’t share your confidence 

You don’t have to.  You know why?  Because I didn’t say I was confident he would or wouldn’t do it.

What I stated is true.  You can sit there and say you don’t think he’s good enough (which is a totally unfounded and ignorant opinion btw) and that’s fine.  But those who do it for a living do think he’s good enough and if he is as good as they think he is, he will be ready next year.  That’s just a fact. 
 

Now, if he struggles and isn’t good enough, he won’t be ready.  But, this isn’t a HS player who requires a lot of MiL time.  College players, especially hitters, will move quickly.  They are older and more mature.  They don’t need the time down there unless they just aren’t that good.

We will see if Kjerstad is. Seeing as Elias believes in him, I have to think he believes he will move fast.

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15 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Why would you be so confident? He didn’t play a competitive game after being drafted and hasn’t played a game in the minors. He’s certainly no Griffey who doesn’t need a stint in the minors and most thought of him as the 10th or so best prospect. He’s 2-3 years away as a realistic best case scenario. Expecting any more is just Orioles homerism Sir!

He's a bat first college player that went in the top 10 in the draft.

Why are you picking him that high if he's going to take three years to be ready?

I think folks confuse needing time in the minors with teams keeping players in the minors to try and maximize value.

Did you know players can actually continue to develop in the majors?

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3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You don’t have to.  You know why?  Because I didn’t say I was confident he would or wouldn’t do it.

What I stated is true.  You can sit there and say you don’t think he’s good enough (which is a totally unfounded and ignorant opinion btw) and that’s fine.  But those who do it for a living do think he’s good enough and if he is as good as they think he is, he will be ready next year.  That’s just a fact. 
 

Now, if he struggles and isn’t good enough, he won’t be ready.  But, this isn’t a HS player who requires a lot of MiL time.  College players, especially hitters, will move quickly.  They are older and more mature.  They don’t need the time down there unless they just aren’t that good.

We will see if Kjerstad is. Seeing as Elias believes in him, I have to think he believes he will move fast.

Didn't one pundit declare his bat ML ready after the draft?  

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54 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

College players, especially hitters, will move quickly.  They are older and more mature.  They don’t need the time down there unless they just aren’t that good.

We will see if Kjerstad is. Seeing as Elias believes in him, I have to think he believes he will move fast.

Here’s the top 5 college position players drafted in each of 2015-17 and when they reached the majors (draft pick no. and position in parentheses): 

2015

Swanson (1, SS)  8/17/16

Bregman (2, SS) 7/25/16

Benintendi (7, OF) 8/2/16

Happ (9, OF) 5/13/17

K. Newman (19, SS) 8/16/18

2016

Senzel (2, 3B) 5/3/19

Corey Ray (5, OF) ——

Z. Collins (10, C) 6/19/19

Kyle Lewis (11, OF) 9/10/19

M. Thaiss (16, C) 7/3/19

2017

P. Smith (7, 1B) 9/12/20

Hasely (8, OF) 6/4/19

Hiura (9, 2B) 5/14/19

Burger (11, 3B) ——

E. White (17, 1B) 7/21/20

Of the 15, three got called up the year after they were drafted, three got called up two years after they were drafted, seven got called up three years after they were drafted and two haven’t made it to the majors yet. 

There are a couple of factors you could consider — exactly how high were they drafted and what position did they play?   If you just look at players drafted in the top 10, there are ten of those and three got called up the year after, three two years after, three three years after and one not in the majors yet.    If you just look at 1B/OF types, you get one called up within a year, two called up within two years, three within three years and one not at all.

Considering there was no MiL season in 2020 and that Kjerstad did not play at the alternate site or the instructional league, I’d say it would be slightly optimistic but not impossible for him to get called up in 2022.    If he is called up that year, it’s likely to be well into the season.  It’s probably more likely he gets called up in 2023.

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17 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

I also do not think the Orioles will be contending for a playoff spot until 2024 at the earliest. And I do not think either Santander nor Mancini will be in an Orioles uniform then. It is a little sad to think that, as I like both as players, but the business side of things dictates that keeping them is not the smart move. Elias is a smart fella. 

See, if this is the assessment, I'm much more on board with trading Santander and Mancini this year, even for moderate returns.

Absent a really nice return, it's really about 2022 to me. When does Elias want us to be competitive? Kjerstad would have to be very advanced to help us for even 1/2 of next year. Diaz is a wild card in all of this. His success or failure could also change my mind, as could a trade for a quality ML 2b/3b/ss, which in theory could be a push for us but focus on a position of need.

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15 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

See, if this is the assessment, I'm much more on board with trading Santander and Mancini this year, even for moderate returns.

Absent a really nice return, it's really about 2022 to me. When does Elias want us to be competitive? Kjerstad would have to be very advanced to help us for even 1/2 of next year. Diaz is a wild card in all of this. His success or failure could also change my mind, as could a trade for a quality ML 2b/3b/ss, which in theory could be a push for us but focus on a position of need.

You think he would have to be very advanced to be of help after a year and a half in the minors?

How high is your bar for "help"?  If he can put up 1 WAR in half a season while making league minimum does that qualify as "help"?  I'd say it does.  I'd also say that a very realistic scenario for a college bat that went 1-2.

Of course I won't at all be surprised if Elias instead games his service time.  Or if we don't have a 2022 season at all.

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2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You think he would have to be very advanced to be of help after a year and a half in the minors?

How high is your bar for "help"?  If he can put up 1 WAR in half a season while making league minimum does that qualify as "help"?  I'd say it does.  I'd also say that a very realistic scenario for a college bat that went 1-2.

Of course I won't at all be surprised if Elias instead games his service time.  Or if we don't have a 2022 season at all.

For reference, you should go back and read your own comments in the draft thread. The kid k'd a ton. One poster pointed to mental errors in the outfield and on the basepaths. He is not a burner. Probably reminds us as a Mountcastle with a better arm in the outfield. Could end up at 1st base.

I hope like hell his bat is amazing, but he was an under slot guy that we took in hopes of getting one of the big arms with our 2nd pick. Didn't work out. Doesn't mean he won't work out, but he's not your typical 1-2 profile.

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