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Jammer7

Santander drawing interest

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18 hours ago, LookinUp said:

At the time of the draft, most of the rankings had not adjusted for his recent (USA baseball, early season) success. Then Elias made statements and people adjusted. Not saying that's wrong, but I think the fact that he didn't have a prolonged stretch with the better approach meant that the composite rankings didn't raise him. If Elias is right, it's a brilliant pick. If he turns out to still have that #10ish profile, it'll depend on the other guys picked.

But under slot was apparently a big part of it if you believe we had targeted over slot pitchers with the Westburg pick, but they were gone. 

This is why I think they took him:

1) They didn’t see much difference between him and the other position players (I do not think any pitchers were ever considered..whether you like that or not, I just don’t think it’s worth factoring them into the discussion)

2) They value his power.

3) because they didn’t see much of a difference in the players, they took someone who they could sign for less to spend money later.(ala Correa)

4) They had a stronger evaluation of him vs internet websites that largely don’t matter.

It was a myriad of things.  Personally, while I wouldn’t have been upset if they took Martin, I think his overrated but I’m also basing that on things I have read and just personal beliefs.  Haven’t seen him play or anything like that.

This draft was a perfect illustration of why it’s so dumb you can’t trade draft picks.  This would have been a great trade down scenario.

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11 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I don’t disagree that it could be an issue. It’s just not one yet. 

Sure but even mentioning it is dumb.

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19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

This is why I think they took him:

1) They didn’t see much difference between him and the other position players (I do not think any pitchers were ever considered..whether you like that or not, I just don’t think it’s worth factoring them into the discussion)

2) They value his power.

3) because they didn’t much of a difference in the players, they took someone who they could sign for less to spend money later.(ala Correa)

4) They had a stronger evaluation of him vs internet websites that largely don’t matter.

It was a myriad of things.  Personally, while I wouldn’t have been upset if they took Martin, I think his overrated but I’m also basing that on things I have read and just personal beliefs.  Haven’t seen him play or anything like that.

This draft was a perfect illustration of why it’s so dumb you can’t trade draft picks.  This would have been a great trade down scenario.

I was talking about the #30 pick. Elias said they had hoped some pitchers were there. I *think* the target was Bitsko, or whatever the guy's name that Tampa drafted. Overslot guy. 

So yeah, they liked Kjerstad similar to the other talent there and got the best value, and then they always looked to parlay the extra money later on. Turns out it wasn't for Bitsko. Instead we got Mayo and Baumler, both of whom we apparently love.

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29 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I was talking about the #30 pick. Elias said they had hoped some pitchers were there. I *think* the target was Bitsko, or whatever the guy's name that Tampa drafted. Overslot guy. 

So yeah, they liked Kjerstad similar to the other talent there and got the best value, and then they always looked to parlay the extra money later on. Turns out it wasn't for Bitsko. Instead we got Mayo and Baumler, both of whom we apparently love.

Sure, they wanted someone else later and Bitsko was reportedly that guy.

However, they didn't take Kjerstad just because of that.  There were several reasons why.

And btw, if thats wrong and the organization reached on purpose, Elias should be fired immediately.  

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Not arguing. I think they liked Kjerstad more than the national rankings because his profile improved in their eyes. That was likely based somewhat on SSS performance, but also on other metrics which they must think are sustainable. That's their job to tease out the important information there, so I'm fine with it. 

Best case is they found the (previously) most under rated guy out there and got him on the relative cheap while also grabbing a couple additional high upside young guys. 

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3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

What you are saying is actually incorrect.  They picked him that high for way more reasons than just he would sign under slot and again, outside of Martin, most of the top 10 guys are ranked in the same area according to BA.

And you know this how? Because what they’ve said on camera or to a media member? That means nothing and you know it.

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2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Wieters.

Yea that guy.

He only played in the Hawaiian league the year he was drafted.  Spent the next season in the minors and was called up as soon as they were done manipulating his service time in his second full year.  Was a league average player that first year.

The O's have picked exactly two college bats in the top 5 since then, neither one of which has been in the system for two full seasons.

If you want to look at pitchers both Matusz and Gausman were up and producing positive WAR by their second full season.

Fair ...but he wasn’t projected around #10 and taken #2. We can wait and see but I seriously doubt he’s ready anywhere near that fast.

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5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I know what I said.  I didn't like the pick.

But I also don't think spending an extra year in the minors is going to fundamentally change who he is.  Unless you have to do something drastic, like rebuild a swing (Stewart, Grenier), college bats picked in the first round aren't going to need a ton of developing.

Me neither which why I found it odd you think he can be ready in year 2.

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10 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Me neither which why I found it odd you think he can be ready in year 2.

I think he will be as ready in year two as he will be in year three.  Either he's a ML ballplayer or not, I don't think adjusting the rate at which he advances through the minors is going to change that. 

Now might his rookie year numbers look a bit better?  Sure.  But his career numbers might actually benefit from earlier advancement.

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37 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

And you know this how? Because what they’ve said on camera or to a media member? That means nothing and you know it.

Because they are professionals and good at their jobs and they wouldn’t punt on a pick so they can draft a few over slot HSers.

Just because you have an obsession with how some nerd behind a keyboard ranks the players doesn’t mean they made a mistake or doesn’t mean they maliciously sabotaged the pick.  That’s just an awful thing to assume.

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58 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think he will be as ready in year two as he will be in year three.  Either he's a ML ballplayer or not, I don't think adjusting the rate at which he advances through the minors is going to change that. 

Now might his rookie year numbers look a bit better?  Sure.  But his career numbers might actually benefit from earlier advancement.

I just see no reason to prejudge this.   We’ll know by the end of 2021 whether he’s likely to be ready in 2022.    Personally I think the odds are no better than 50/50 that he will be (even if he turns out to be a good player eventually) but he’ll show us one way or the other.    

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4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I just see no reason to prejudge this.   We’ll know by the end of 2021 whether he’s likely to be ready in 2022.    Personally I think the odds are no better than 50/50 that he will be (even if he turns out to be a good player eventually) but he’ll show us one way or the other.    

It's January 22nd.

What else are we going to talk about?

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2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Because they are professionals and good at their jobs and they wouldn’t punt on a pick so they can draft a few over slot HSers.

Just because you have an obsession with how some nerd behind a keyboard ranks the players doesn’t mean they made a mistake or doesn’t mean they maliciously sabotaged the pick.  That’s just an awful thing to assume.

We will see!

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45 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It's January 22nd.

What else are we going to talk about?

My Birthday....The Big Five-OH

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