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Jammer7

Santander drawing interest

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35 minutes ago, wildcard said:

How do you know he not a core player?

Because he’s not, at least not by my definition.  (And what I think most people would consider a core player)
 

I think he can be a very valuable role player though and that is the best most players can hope to be.

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16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Because he’s not, at least not by my definition.  (And what I think most people would consider a core player)

What is your definition?   Which of these were core players for the Orioles?

Machado 

Jones

Hardy

Markakis

Wieters 

Schoop

Davis

Tillman

Chen

Gausman

Britton

O’Day

Brach

Anyone else on the 2012-16 O’s you’d consider a core player?

 

 

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3 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

 

Fair enough, that is why I said I would start there. To move him now, that is where I would start. His final stats for 2020 (.261/.315/.575) were a little deceiving in that he played several games with an abdominal strain. Prior to that, he was (.287/.333/.661) in the first half of the season. With a BABIP of .261, would you say he may have hit into some bad luck? 

Those prospects listed have no experience above A ball, and they are far from a sure thing. Misner has contact issues and Fulton is coming off TJ surgery. In mid-July, if Santander is healthy and picks up where he left off in 2020, I think that price is not far off at all. Healthy is a big factor, certainly. Perhaps Bleday is raking in AA and they just promote him to play RF. 

In all fairness, you have to consider that the entire 2020 season is a small sample size.

Playing really well for half of the season is an even smaller small sample size, so it doesn’t really mean that much.

However I do think that Santander is a very good player, our best all-around player, and, with all appropriate apologies to sports guy, I do think he is a core player unless we can trade him for a whole lot.

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

What is your definition?   Which of these were core players for the Orioles?

Machado 

Jones

Hardy

Markakis

Wieters 

Schoop

Davis

Tillman

Chen

Gausman

Britton

O’Day

Brach

Anyone else on the 2012-16 O’s you’d consider a core player?

 

 

I think most teams only have about 5 or so true core players...4+ WAR guys and/or dominant BP arms (WAR doesn’t properly rate relievers).

Legit AS level guys.  

 

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5 hours ago, Frobby said:

Chen

 

Off topic, but just out of curiosity I googled Wei-Yin Chen's name, and discovered he was the highest-paid player of the 2020 MLB season at $22 million.  I don't know how that is possible, but then again not much made sense in 2020.

As far as Santander, he seems like a JAG.  Maybe slightly above a JAG.  Certainly not a guy to build around, but a capable 5-7 hitter in a lineup of a somewhat contending team.  In other words, he isn't that special.

I hope Yusniel Diaz gets a chance this year.  He was supposedly the cornerstone of the Machado trade, and I have yet to see him in any box score.  He isn't getting any younger, let the dude play.

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1 hour ago, Oriole4Life said:

Off topic, but just out of curiosity I googled Wei-Yin Chen's name, and discovered he was the highest-paid player of the 2020 MLB season at $22 million.  I don't know how that is possible, but then again not much made sense in 2020.

As far as Santander, he seems like a JAG.  Maybe slightly above a JAG.  Certainly not a guy to build around, but a capable 5-7 hitter in a lineup of a somewhat contending team.  In other words, he isn't that special.

I hope Yusniel Diaz gets a chance this year.  He was supposedly the cornerstone of the Machado trade, and I have yet to see him in any box score.  He isn't getting any younger, let the dude play.

If you released a guy than his salary wasn't prorated.

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31 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you released a guy than his salary wasn't prorated.

For sure, thanks.  I guess my surprise was more at the fact that the Marlins gave Chen such a huge contract.  Talk about JAGs.  Also amazed that out of all the stars in the MLB (Kershaw, Betts, Harper, etc.) that there wasn't one player last year who got paid more than $22 million.

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12 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Elias isn't gaming his service time.

No, but Dan Duquette gamed his Rule 5 time. lol

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11 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I think he's on the fringe of possibly becoming a core player.

Not getting my hopes up that we trade him for anything useful.  

I think his ceiling would be that of a guy who is, as you say, a fringe core player.

So, I would agree that he has an outside chance of becoming that player, although I don’t think he can do it year in and year out.  Like most very good role players, they are capable of popping a year or 2 where they look like AS or even make the AS team, deservedly.  However, they will have other years where they aren’t much better than a replacement player.  
 

However, he is most likely “just” a solid role player capable of carrying an offense for a week or so.  While he is making little to no money (basically for the next 2 seasons), that is quite valuable.  No denying that.

But there isn’t risk there and you can replace him within the organization and since you don’t care about winning, just do that.

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9 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I think most teams only have about 5 or so true core players...4+ WAR guys and/or dominant BP arms (WAR doesn’t properly rate relievers).

Legit AS level guys.  

 

I think your definition of a core player is stricter than some people’s.   I agree Santander doesn’t meet your definition.  

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4 hours ago, Oriole4Life said:

For sure, thanks.  I guess my surprise was more at the fact that the Marlins gave Chen such a huge contract.  Talk about JAGs.  Also amazed that out of all the stars in the MLB (Kershaw, Betts, Harper, etc.) that there wasn't one player last year who got paid more than $22 million.

I think you are missing a couple of points here.   First, lots of players were scheduled to make more than $22 mm last year.   But because they only played 37% of the regular season, they only got 37% of their scheduled pay.   For example, Kershaw was scheduled to receive $31 mm but only received $11.5 mm due to the shortened season.   Chen, on the other hand, had been released before spring training even began and therefore was owed his entire 2020 salary of $22 mm.   I’m sure if the Marlins had known in advance that the season would be shortened, they would have left Chen on the roster and only paid him $8.1 mm.

The second point is that Chen’s contract was significantly backloaded.   The Marlins signed him for 5/$80 mm, which averages $16 mm/yr, but it was structured like this: $12.5 mm, $15.5 mm, $10 mm, $20 mm, $22 mm.

So, the fact that Chen was the highest paid player last year is just a consequence of the pandemic truncating other players’ salaries but not his, and the backloading of his deal.   

Any way you slice it, the deal worked out horribly for the Marlins.  
 

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32 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think your definition of a core player is stricter than some people’s.   I agree Santander doesn’t meet your definition.  

Yea I agree. By those standards, the only "core players" from the 2012-2016 Orioles were:

Machado, Jones, Davis, and Britton.

Personally, I think a "core player" is more like someone who can give you around 2 WAR annually, with the potential to make an All Star team at least once. From the 2012-2016 O's, that would mean adding people like Markakis, Hardy, Weiters, Schoop, and O'Day to the list.

That's pretty much what I think Santander will do over the next four years. And I hope we keep him. 

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14 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don’t understand what is meant by “easily replaced.”   Guys who are capable of being average or better major league starters don’t grow on trees, especially if we are talking about the subset of them that are under team control at sub-FA prices for several years.   It’s certainly possible to replace a guy like Santander, but I don’t think it’s that “easily” done.    That said, I’m perfectly willing to shop him so long as we are seeking a decent return.   

14 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

His production is relatively easy to replace.  It may not come immediately from RF but you can replace his production in the lineup.  
 

In other words, we could easily be a better offense in 2021 if we trade him but upgrade in other areas.

Long term, I think RF will be easy to replace him...hopefully with Kjerstad.

This is the crux of the argument I've been having with SG.

I don't believe it's easy to find a guy as valuable as Santander, and I think the argument that you can replace his production through the rest of the roster is a fallacy. If you can do that, why not keep him and still improve the rest of the roster?

I actually think we kind of agree about the type of player that Santander is. Somewhat less than Jammer's opinion of him, but a good guy who can be valuable even if he's not your Machado type of value. Eventually maybe not affordable at that level of production for a penny-pinching team.

The relevant question then about trading him is about whether you can replace him, because I don't want to trade him and create a hole in our lineup when we're on the cusp of being competitive (which I believe starts late this year and next).  

So all of that argues not to trade him now unless you get that Bleday-like deal. REAL value back. If not, I'm not moving him unless/until I have confidence in our other internal options.

Finally, I don't buy the cost argument for two reasons. First, he will be getting expensive when the rest of the roster is the cheapest it'll ever be. We should be able to cover arb prices. If they go really high, that means he's producing. Second, if we don't have that replacement internally that means to me that we'd have to pay free agent prices in hopes of replacing him. That's the most expensive route of player acquisition.

So we find a team that wants to win now and is willing to overpay for a cheap alternative, perhaps like the Marlins, or we wait until we know more in July and reassess. That's my take.

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13 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I think he's on the fringe of possibly becoming a core player.

Not getting my hopes up that we trade him for anything useful.  

I think his ceiling would be that of a guy who is, as you say, a fringe core player.

So, I would agree that he has an outside chance of becoming that player.  However, he is most likely “just” a solid role player capable of carrying an offense for a week or so.  While he is making little to no money (basically for the next 2 seasons), that is quite valuable.  No denying that.

But there is risk there and you can replace him within the organization and since you don’t care about winning, just do that.

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