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SteveA

AL East Starting pitching

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Everyone talks about how tough it is to compete in the AL East, but, honestly, how many of the rotations we wil face are really scary?

At least at this point.   Obviously there are still some free agents out there who can make a difference like Bauer, maybe Paxton.

Certainly no one has a Nationals/Dodgers/Padres level rotation.

Jays are anchored by Ryu, then Robbie Ray.   Then what?   Stripling, ???   Not a rotation that you shudder to go into a series against.

Yankees have Cole and a long list of question marks.

Red Sox don't have much.   We don't know what Ed Rod will be able to do after sitting out the year and possibly suffering some lung issues due to his bout with Covid.   Sale had TJ surgery last March, I doubt he's ready to start the season and the Red Sox are on record they will take it slow with him.   Martin Perez?

Rays have Glasnow, Wacha, Yarborough?

And this is all off the top of my head, there are probably some prospects or candidates I am not thinking of.

Any of those teams could peace together a pretty decent rotation if things break right.   Or they could be really hurting if things break wrong.  But none of them look like they will ride to a winning record based on starting pitching like a Nationals team might be able to.   

I'll go on record now as saying the AL East will not one of the top overall divisions in baseball this year.

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The Taillon acquisition really helps the Yankees for 2021-2022, but here is a broad area where a decent chunk of my optimism for even as soon as 2022 (if we aren't bankrupt) rests.   Our first wildcard game it might be Saunders-Darvish all over again, but I feel like even the early Adley teams will have an edge at covering the 1450 innings compared to many others.

The midpoint of John Means's age and  DL Hall's age is approximately 1.1.1996 - Akin and Baumann are older than that.  I only have to fudge a week to get Dean Kremer older than that too.

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14 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

Where do you think the Orioles rotation will rank amongst the five in terms of ERA in 2021?

3rd or 4th.

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It’s intriguing to look at the virtues and flaws of a team: offense, defense, and pitching, the big triangle. The Jays sure seem to have improved everything, but what about their D? The Yankees are always powerful, but what about their pitching? They have, what, a solid 1,2,3 now after getting Taillon? How’s their D? I loathe the Red Sox, but I think we can be negative about them without bias. The Rays always surprise, so just because they got rid of some big names doesn’t mean they don’t have some outstanding unknowns to offer this season. Too soon for predictions, but I’m hoping the Os will be looking down on the BoSox at least.

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Boston just acquired Garrett Richards. His career has been plagued by injuries but when he's healthy he's very good.

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2 hours ago, Moshagge3 said:

Boston just acquired Garrett Richards. His career has been plagued by injuries but when he's healthy he's very good.

There's a ton of pitchers in the division who have had good seasons at one point or another but whose careers have been derailed by injury or decline, or who are coming back from significant injuries.   Richards, Cobb, Wacha, Kluber, Taillon, Sale, Rodriguez, Richards.   I can imagine each guy on that list providing absolutely nothing to their team this season (zero or negative war) -- but each one of them could also put up a good season if they are healthy and the circumstances are right.

If Paxton or Archer signs with an AL East team, that would be two more names to that list.

Which guys on that list provide nothing, and which guys at least competently fill a rotation slot for most of the season or even excel, will go a long way to determining what happens in the division this year.

But as Sportsguy points out, there are also a lot of young unproven guys with some potential that will be in ALE rotations.   

It's amazing how few guys there are in the entire division that you can just pretty much say barring an injury they will give you an established, expected level of performance -- Glasnow, Cole, Ryu, maybe Martin Perez.   Is that it?

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I think it was Bob Feller, who said of Dwight Gooden, “I would rather have his future than my past.“

Looking at today’s pitching environment, I would much rather have the future of our own guys, then hope for a continuation of the past of the other teams’ guys.

I continue to think that pitching is going to be the least of our problems in this season.

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Assuming most of the good Bowie pitchers have to try to do Norfolk world domination before maybe an Akin/Kremer sized sip, would anyone want Jake Arrieta at ANY price for the Sutcliffe things?

Floor starting pitchers with little October upside are the one group (Happ, Quintana, Lester) of players falling far short of Fangraphs guesses among recent signees.   I somewhat suspect no one very good really wants 2021 Arrieta pitching for them, but as ever...we may have a job for some qualified major leaguer.

He'd be more entertaining than a Milone clone, but does the regime feel he's anyone for Kremer, Akin, etc. to be around (non-Cobb category) for a year.

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Its a good point the OP makes, there are a lot of question marks and I would suspect these teams aren't done yet either.  There is a reason the MFY just freed up $10 in space with the Ottavino trade.  They also have German and Montgomery who could help.

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2 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

A fanciful can to kick - contracts aside, from here would you rather have John Means or Chris Sale?

Contracts aside? Sale and it’s not even close.

Contracts not aside, Means.

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7 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Contracts aside? Sale and it’s not even close.

32 years old, coming off TJ surgery and had a 4.40 ERA in his last major league season.   There’s no guarantee at all that he’ll be anything close to the dominant pitcher he was.    The 28 year old Means obviously will never be close to what Sale was in his prime, but he might be the better pitcher going forward.    

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1 minute ago, Frobby said:

32 years old, coming off TJ surgery and had a 4.40 ERA in his last major league season.   There’s no guarantee at all that he’ll be anything close to the dominant pitcher he was.    The 28 year old Means obviously will never be close to what Sale was in his prime, but he might be the better pitcher going forward.    

He also had 218 Ks in 147 innings and a 1.086 WHIP.

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