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O’s Sign Galvis. 1/$1.25 million

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1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Thanks for posting that. I know I've read that before and I probably should have brought that up. I've done a lot of research into the statcast/Hawk-Eye cameras information and agree, there's a ton more to analyze and figure out, but it's fascinating for me because for once, there is no math really involved, just cold hard data to measure up against others in similar situations. 

I'm also interested in Bauer's units to see if I can correlate why certain guys can get away with 91 MPH fastball when others can't. I just wish I had the data for the Orioles minor leaguers.

We can all play along at home like Garry Kasparov or Magnus Carlsen, but I'm pretty sure clubs are trying to get AI on this case.    Go Sig - do a good job!

There is definitely some Dead Poets Society chart measuring the greatness of a fastball by spin + velocity.   Its probably a relic already.

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A year after they signed José Iglesias to a similar one-year deal (and turned his career year into two prospects this offseason), Baltimore signed Galvis to provide a veteran glove at short again. Offensively, he’s nearly the opposite of Hernandez. He has a little pop in his bat but really struggles to get on base at a regular clip. He did make some strides at the plate in 2020. He posted the highest walk rate and ISO of his career while lowering his strikeout rate by nearly six points. And despite a terribly unlucky .231 BABIP, he posted the highest wRC+ of his career as well.

But despite the rosy picture all those career-highs paint, there were some concerning trends underneath the hood. His hard hit rate took a steep tumble, falling from 36.4% to 27.9%, one of the lowest hard hit rates in the majors. The reason why he was able to post the highest power output of his career even though his hard hit rate fell so precipitously was because of how those hard hit balls were distributed. When he hit the ball harder than 95 mph, his average launch angle was 18.6 degrees. But on balls hit softer than 95 mph, his average launch angle was 8.4 degrees. Hitting just enough hard hit balls in the air saved him from being a total loss at the plate, but that’s not a profile that bodes well for his batting average.

Defensively, he was a bit of a mess in 2020 as well. Per Statcast’s outs above average, he’s been the fifth best shortstop in the majors since 2017, converting 25 outs above average during that time. But most of that glove work came during the first three years of that sample. In 2020, he was one of the worst shortstops in the majors, costing the Reds 3 outs below average. The other advanced defensive metrics saw a similar dip in fielding prowess.

For such a low investment, betting on his glove to return to its previous norms is an easy bet for the Orioles to make. Baltimore doesn’t really have a better alternative on their roster at this point. He’s not the most exciting addition to the roster, but he does make the team better at a key position. And maybe he’ll follow Iglesias’ footsteps and post a career year in 2021.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cleveland-and-baltimore-solidify-their-up-the-middle-defense/

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I think a lot of us (me included) predicted the O's would sign Galvis to a contract somewhat similar to what he signed.  Where a bunch of us disagree is whether or not he's at the same level as Iglesias.  Granted, until last year there probably wasn't much difference, and last year was a very short season.  However, last year is the best we got for predicting what they'll do in the future.  I hope he proves me wrong, but I don't expect that Galvis will play at Iglesias' level.       

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24 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

I think a lot of us (me included) predicted the O's would sign Galvis to a contract somewhat similar to what he signed.  Where a bunch of us disagree is whether or not he's at the same level as Iglesias.  Granted, until last year there probably wasn't much difference, and last year was a very short season.  However, last year is the best we got for predicting what they'll do in the future.  I hope he proves me wrong, but I don't expect that Galvis will play at Iglesias' level.       

He’s certainly not going to hit at the level Iglesias did last year.   Nor will Iglesias.   

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Here are some Galvis/Iglesias projections:

ZipS: Iglesias .296/.326/.428, Galvis .246/.300/.382

Steamer: Iglesias .278/.311/.399, Galvis .238/.294/.387

ATC: Iglesias .279/314/.398, Galvis .239/.295/.395

THE BAT: Iglesias .279/.318/.399, Galvis .236/.291/.388

THE BATX: Iglesias .274/.314/.384, Galvis .238/.291/.388

Marcel: Iglesias .279/.322/.418, Galvis .242/.299/.409

So, Iglesias in the .698 - .754 OPS range, Galvis in the .679-.708 range.   

By the way, I’ve never heard of ATC, THE BAT or THE BATX.   But Fangraphs is publishing them, so I listed them.

 

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Astonishingly, Galvis has not matched Semien, and Clay Davenport's revisions through yesterday's moves get us up to an MLB-high 100 losses!

http://claydavenport.com/projections/PROJHOME.shtml

Take that, Pirates!

I occasionally hear talking heads reference Fangraphs projected WAR by team, but haven't yet discovered if they venture a Standings Projection mid-offseason.

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19 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

Astonishingly, Galvis has not matched Semien, and Clay Davenport's revisions through yesterday's moves get us up to an MLB-high 100 losses!

http://claydavenport.com/projections/PROJHOME.shtml

Take that, Pirates!

I occasionally hear talking heads reference Fangraphs projected WAR by team, but haven't yet discovered if they venture a Standings Projection mid-offseason.

They do team projections, but closer to the start of the season.  

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Moving on to the deployment...

Is he going to be able to do the Jose Iglesias trick of batting 3rd on Opening Day, and 2nd or 3rd in 100% of his starts?

Roster Resource resting on a guess of 7th behind Hays/Stewart/Santander/Mancini/Sisco/Mountcastle.

Opening Day was Hays/Santander/Iglesias/Nunez/Davis/Alberto/Ruiz/Severino/Stewart.

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13 hours ago, Frobby said:

He’s certainly not going to hit at the level Iglesias did last year.   Nor will Iglesias.   

Nobody expects either of them to, so...

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On 1/27/2021 at 8:34 AM, scOtt said:

It's all just an excuse to eat gobs of Maple Surple!

 

 

 

John Hartford ref...

Now that I think about it... It's actually a Roger Miller reference.

Roses are red
Violets are purple
Sugar is sweet
And so is Maple Surple!

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On 1/26/2021 at 10:55 PM, Roll Tide said:

I just dont understand why anyone would be excited about this move.

It's a new fuel pump, not a quadrophonic Blaupunkt. It's not supposed to be exciting, just necessary.

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24 minutes ago, beervendor said:

It's a new fuel pump, not a quadrophonic Blaupunkt. It's not supposed to be exciting, just necessary.

Thanks

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On 1/27/2021 at 8:38 AM, Roll Tide said:

I’m not upset that we traded Iglesias...but why spend over a million in this guy. Just sign a Guy for the minimum or they should’ve drafted a rule 5 guy with a plus glove.

That's what Richie Martin was 2 years ago.

He was the best option (at least in the scouts eyes) and struggled mightily.  If the options this year weren't seen as strong a candidate as him, then teams passing on SS makes sense.

While they is no giant World Series aspirations this year, we should start seeing more and more young pitchers.  The known professional defender means more there than the chance of a rule V guy being on par.  I'm not excited about Galvis/Sanchez at the plate, but I do hope we'll see a lot of double plays.

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28 minutes ago, jerios55 said:

That's what Richie Martin was 2 years ago.

He was the best option (at least in the scouts eyes) and struggled mightily.  If the options this year weren't seen as strong a candidate as him, then teams passing on SS makes sense.

While they is no giant World Series aspirations this year, we should start seeing more and more young pitchers.  The known professional defender means more there than the chance of a rule V guy being on par.  I'm not excited about Galvis/Sanchez at the plate, but I do hope we'll see a lot of double plays.

I posted some guys earlier in the with 55-60 ratings with glove and arm. Who cares if they werent ready to hit as we aren't trying to win. This guy is more expensive and his OBP is just over 300. As I mentioned later, I really dont care just seems like extra revenue when money appears to be tight.

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