O’s Sign Galvis. 1/$1.25 million

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm not going to dig my heels in like War Eagle here, but at 31 I don't expect his defense to be going up.  

Doesn't totally matter, it's a one year deal anyway.  If his defense holds steady from what it was in 2019, that's fine.

Yes, I agree with that. I also think it’s likely that Iglesias has a farther fall to be worse defensively than Galvis.

My point is simply that we don’t know anything about his current defense.  
 

All I can say for sure is that the organization is better off today than they were the day before they dealt Iglesias and that’s all that matters.

[TommyPickles]

Why did Toronto give Semien 18 million for one year? Can someone explain to me why this is not an overpay? Do they think they're going to win the WS in 2021?

.747 career OPS

.679 OPS in 2020

Career 105 OPS+

 

I know he balled out in 2019, but I'm struggling to make sense of that deal.

[jabba72]

18 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

Why did Toronto give Semien 18 million for one year? Can someone explain to me why this is not an overpay? Do they think they're going to win the WS in 2021?

.747 career OPS

.679 OPS in 2020

Career 105 OPS+

 

I know he balled out in 2019, but I'm struggling to make sense of that deal.

Baseball-ref says Semien was worth over 9 WAR n 2019. Thats why he got $18m. 

[weams]

I am excited. That they think they will play 162 games. And I might attend some. 

[Sports Guy]

https://theathletic.com/2348152/2021/01/26/freddy-galvis-signing-2021-orioles/?source=user_shared_article

 

A big point mentioned here is that Galvis had apparently put on some lbs and that could have effected his defense in 2020 and that he is apparently in better shape.

[MDK02]

25 minutes ago, weams said:

I am excited. That they think they will play 162 games. And I might attend some. 

If I can attend a game.. I'll gladly keep cheering this team on, even when we're down 15-2 in the 5th inning...

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

https://theathletic.com/2348152/2021/01/26/freddy-galvis-signing-2021-orioles/?source=user_shared_article

 

A big point mentioned here is that Galvis had apparently put on some lbs and that could have effected his defense in 2020 and that he is apparently in better shape.

I'll brace myself for the BSOHL report.

[Yardball85]

58 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

Why did Toronto give Semien 18 million for one year? Can someone explain to me why this is not an overpay? Do they think they're going to win the WS in 2021?

.747 career OPS

.679 OPS in 2020

Career 105 OPS+

 

I know he balled out in 2019, but I'm struggling to make sense of that deal.

Agreed.  He did finish third in the MVP voting in 2019, but I had him pegged for an AAV of about 11-15 millon, max.

[eddie83]

14 hours ago, Frobby said:

For sure.   But maybe not at the end.  

With no MiL season in 2020 to evaluate, it’s really a black hole how much anyone was able to develop and how far they’ll get in 2021.    All we have to go on are the uniformly positive statements we get from the Orioles’ front office and coaching staff, and that kind of talk is not reliable.   
 

I am very excited about him. All I’m saying is there is no way he is up in 2022 unless it’s to join a contender. 

[OrioleDog]

42 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'll brace myself for the BSOHL report.

Hopefully we'll just get some candor and label it the Not 2020 WSOHL report - even Gleyber had it.

If Galvis is just falling off that cliff and is only the 29th best fielding SS nowadays (#Gleyber!), he probably still saves a dozen or more runs than if we tried Sanchez, Urias or Valaika there 150 times.   

We even get to manage Richie Martin's service time to secure his 2025 now, so it kind of pays for itself!

[Tony-OH]

5 hours ago, wildcard said:

I look at it as infield depth

Galvis at SS or 2B

Sanchez  2B/SS/3B

Valiaka   2B or maybe 3B  with a split contract; has an option

Ruiz    3B has an option

Urias  2B/SS 3B has an option;  We haven't seem much of his yet.  Interesting bat

Martin SS/2B probably goes to AAA; has options

Lets them fight it out in camp.

 

Sure. Again I don't think any of the current options moves a needle one way or the other, and I guess if the orioles know the reason why Galvis' defense slipped so much last year and they think he can get back to where he was, then sure, why not on the defensive side alone? 

I doubt any of the guys you mentioned are starters during a playoff caliber orioles team and I doubt any of them can be traded to being one in, even in a package.

I guess for a team that seems to be cutting corners financially, why dump money into a guy that's not going to move the needle or really win you more ball games. the only way this makes sense is if gold glove caliber defense shows back up and it's helps a young pitching staff.

I guess we'll see what Galvis shows up defensively this year.

[OrioleDog]

4 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I am very excited about him. All I’m saying is there is no way he is up in 2022 unless it’s to join a contender. 

Camp invites and minor league starting assignments will start to give us real information about how Elias views '22 this quarter.

Those are kind of independent of the Cashflow Money Makes The World go round aspect of it IRL.   In straight baseball terms, I don't think I've seen a clear signal yet from Elias about the 2022 club's viability, which I get due to lack of data.   

I could believe half a dozen or so Tides/Baysox to be could produce 0 WAR or 20 WAR next year, and don't think there are many orgs where among 6-8 upper minors guys you could say that.

[Tony-OH]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

You’re putting a lot of emphasis on the Statcast numbers.    Fangraphs has him at +2.6 UZR/150, BB-ref has him at O Rtot and +1 DRS.   I like the Statcast numbers but where I’ve got three sources saying a player is average or slightly above and one source saying he’s below, I’m not going to put too much emphasis on the one negative number that’s out there, especially for a guy who has generally had a good defensive reputation.  

I’m also not convinced that Sanchez, who has played less than 100 innings at SS in the majors in 7 years, can be a solid major league SS.   Given the choice between Galvis and Sanchez defensively at SS, I’d certainly think Galvis is a much better bet.   Sanchez is also a slightly worse hitter.    

So, I am not excited about this move, but at $1.5 mm, it’s okay.  

 

I believe much more in the statcast numbers because they are based off a system that judges typical success of a typical MLB player in the same situation, not math or the eye of a person.

Either way, I'm not upset over this move, I just don't think it helps anything for the future or winning now. Maybe he'll be great defensively again and then he has value in the development of the young starters.

Other than that, he brings very little to the table and this is a team that has found every way to cut money from supposedly getting ride of coaches, to releasing or trading players over MLB-wise small salaries, to furloughing employees making barely livable wages. 

I agree with you that Sanchez is almost assuredly going to be better defensively at 2B vs SS, but he's also a guy who has played a lot of 2B because a better shortstop was on the team so it makes you wonder whether he could be effective over there if given a chance. Saying that, Sanchez doesn't exactly excite me either.

I guess I just kind of see this as a Meh signing. Then again, the other options were Meh as well, but at least in that situation they are young enough where they could show enough improvement to possibly have value if given that playing time.

I do believe the Orioles future SS is in the system, but it's not ready for this year and most likely not next.
 

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I am very excited about him. All I’m saying is there is no way he is up in 2022 unless it’s to join a contender. 

Well, it is not very likely, but I wouldn’t say it’s unheard of.  Bo Bichette was drafted in the second round out of high school in 2016 and debuted in the majors on July 29, 2019 for a non-contending Blue Jays team that went 67-95.    But the next year, they were a winning club and now they’re really going for it.    Bichette was a rare case, but it does happen.   

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I believe much more in the statcast numbers because they are based off a system that judges typical success of a typical MLB player in the same situation, not math or the eye of a person.

Either way, I'm not upset over this move, I just don't think it helps anything for the future or winning now. Maybe he'll be great defensively again and then he has value in the development of the young starters.

I also prefer Statcast to the other systems, but none of them are perfect and when all three of the others point a different direction than Statcast I’m willing to consider that Statcast may be off in this case, particularly in a small sample size as SG noted.   

In any event, I’m not expecting GG caliber defense from him, just very solid defense.