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Comparing the AL East Farm Systems - Fangraphs’ Take So Far

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On 2/12/2021 at 7:12 AM, Can_of_corn said:

Sure would make trading Severino easier.

The main issue I had with the trade is that Pearce was hurt and I believe the O's knew he was hurt.  The Rays used him almost exclusively as a DH and never in the outfield.  The O's put him into the outfield and he's on the IL almost immediately.

You mean like the last night he played for us? Playing LF in a blowout loss to Boston?  Never did understand that from Buck and why the media never bothered to ask him about it.  

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS201609120.shtml


Perhaps he was already toast or would have hurt it the next game. I think he would have been a nice bat to have for the WC game in Toronto.  

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On 1/28/2021 at 10:06 AM, LookinUp said:

I've read that Tampa has the strongest system people have ever seen. I do forget who wrote that, but he's been in baseball for decades. 

Not sure if that would hold under scrutiny, but even if it doesn't, if you're even mentioned as the best system ever you must be stacked.

Kiley McDaniel said Wednesday that Tampa could lose/drop Wander from their list and still have the number 1 system in all of the land. Crazy. 

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12 hours ago, Frobby said:

Has to be an error on Longenhagen’s part.    Overall, I found his list a bit weird.    He isn’t real high on our system, by these numbers.    

It seems like all of Fangraphs is off on Akin for some reason. Meg Rowley chimed in the comments, responding to commenters making this point, by linking the Fangraphs list of graduated prospects, which doesn't really prove anything (i.e., A makes a claim then cites A's own prior statements as evidence).

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5 hours ago, scarey1999 said:

Kiley McDaniel said Wednesday that Tampa could lose/drop Wander from their list and still have the number 1 system in all of the land. Crazy. 

That is truly incredible.

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1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

That is truly incredible.

They are better than the late 50's Royals when by reputation Kansas City was the Yankees farm club in the American League, but they somewhat serve the other 29 clubs in this regard.   The Peak Franco Teams probably should outshine even the Peak Rutschman Teams here, but I think I'm more worried about being better than the Blue Jays than the Rays four years out.

I am curious to see if they can keep their Stable such an October force after 162 not 60.   They flat beat peak Gerrit Cole with that last fall, and they'll certainly be able to acquire any blossoming Nick Anderson (Tanner Scott?) they want in July.

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23 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

They are better than the late 50's Royals when by reputation Kansas City was the Yankees farm club in the American League,

The Athletics were in Kansas City at that time.  The Royals were not yet in existence.

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So Fangraphs assigns a dollar value to each prospect ranking, e.g. a FV 65 batter (Rutschman) is worth $112 mm whereas a FV 55 pitcher (Rodriguez) is worth $34 mm.   In this way, you can add the values of each player they rank and come up with a team total.   Here’s the tally in the AL East:

TBR $558 mm (62 players)

BAL $230.5 mm (45)

TOR $209 mm (39)

NYY $172 mm (48)

BOS $124 mm (47)

One caveat: when Fangraphs published their valuations for each grade, there were no 80 FV players or 70 FV pitchers.    So, I really don’t know what dollar value they put on 80 FV Wander Franco.   I pegged it at $175 mm.   Even without Franco the Rays’ system would be worth $383 mm by Fangraphs’ estimation.    

You can see by the above that quantity is good, but quality also matters.   Hence Toronto has the third most valuable system in the AL East even though they have the lowest number of rated prospects.    
 

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

TBR $558 mm (62 players)

I look forward to Nashville and Team 32 drawing heavily from this pool if we get expansion in a few years!   Believe I saw Longenhagen in his chat a few days ago questioned about Akin's absence giving an answer saying he thought it was a goof, but don't know if he's edited yet.

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On 1/28/2021 at 11:27 AM, Can_of_corn said:

Did they have 14 consecutive losing seasons?

We all know the Orioles were inept from top to bottom for a long time. Not a secret nor is it under debate. 

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6 minutes ago, LocoChris said:

We all know the Orioles were inept from top to bottom for a long time. Not a secret nor is it under debate. 

I was responding to someone comparing them to an expansion franchise initial years as a team.  

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Overall, Fangraphs has evaluated 12 farm systems so far, and the Orioles rank 5th in that group:

TBR $558 mm (62 players)

MIN $314.5 mm (39)

PIT $263.5 mm (51)

CWS $232 mm (34)

BAL $230.5 mm (45)

If Akin (45 FV P = $4 mm) is added in, we squeak past the White Sox.   

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9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

MIN $314.5 mm (39)

I probably wouldn't have guessed that one.   Royce Lewis did just take a significant ding.

The Twins are obviously doing lots of stuff right but I feel like our path past them is a Cruz/Donaldson tapering off and them simply not being able to afford the very good team they've constructed.

I think I think by 2023 we're almost as likely to have Berrios/Buxton/Rogers as they are

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11 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

I probably wouldn't have guessed that one.   Royce Lewis did just take a significant ding.

The Twins are obviously doing lots of stuff right but I feel like our path past them is a Cruz/Donaldson tapering off and them simply not being able to afford the very good team they've constructed.

I think I think by 2023 we're almost as likely to have Berrios/Buxton/Rogers as they are

Minnesota doesn’t have a large number of ranked prospects, but at the top they have two 60’s, a 55 and four 50’s.   We have a 65, a 55 and three 50’s.

Of course, this is all in Longenhagen’s opinion.   

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