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Cobb to Angels

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2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What do you think the odds are that Diaz will be better (1) this year, or (2) ever?   In (2), I mean will Diaz ever be better than Santander is now.

My answers: (1) 10% and (2) 33%.

 

I'd go a bit higher but that seems reasonable. 

My point is that 33 or even 10 percent means it isn't certain.

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8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What do you think the odds are that Diaz will be better (1) this year, or (2) ever?   In (2), I mean will Diaz ever be better than Santander is now.

My answers: (1) 10% and (2) 33%.

 

I agree with what we know now.   Both have injury histories.  The one that can stay on the field might turn out to be the best.

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I see it more Santander (of course) and Diaz (more arguably) being better than Mullins/Stewart for 1st string roles.

It can be LF Diaz, RF Kjerstad, DH Santander (or whatever juggle) once Mancini finishes.

I don't think it'll happen, but it'd be less than ideal entering next offseason not knowing whether or not Diaz can play.   

There's the health thing and the mindset questions, but if "not maximizing major league wins" isn't good for that....

After park effects and rabbit ball, I think he hit about as well as Mountcastle in the high minors in 2019, and he's 24.5 by Opening Day, just 18 months younger than Nomar Mazara perhaps already at the end of the line.   

Diaz does need to be able to show up for work from say March 1 to May 1, but then if he's exhibiting some talent and unless Stewart or Mullins are going crazy, it seems like an easy switch.

It will be good for the team if we end up having to pay him a couple bucks in Arb1.

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5 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

 

JJ Hardy, as one example, had his best Orioles season by bWAR (4.1) and fWAR (4.5) in 2011. He played in only 129 games and slashed .269/.310/.491. That is in the lower end of the stated 5 - 7 win range if you extend to a full season.

Yes, I should have specified corner OF.

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51 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'd go a bit higher but that seems reasonable. 

My point is that 33 or even 10 percent means it isn't certain.

True.  Not much in baseball is absolutely certain.    I’m sure if someone had asked me two years ago about the odds of Mike Yastrzemski putting up 5.5 rWAR in 161 games, I would have said 500-1.    But it happened.   

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I don’t see us signing Franco for a couple of reasons. He’d take up a 40 man spot. We need to see what we have on the 40 man already. The trade market will be limited with no NL DH, and a return to the regular former playoff format. I don’t think any of that justifies the resources he’d cost to sign and what we would get in a potential deadline deal. 
 

Trading Mancini now would be selling low on him. The league needs to see if he can return to his form prior to his battle with cancer. If so, then he’ll likely be dealt by the 2021 trade deadline. 
 

I don’t see us trading Santander unless we’re really blown away, or if we have the opportunity to trade from our strength(OF) to help a weakness(3B,SS,SP). 
 

I could see Severino going in a trade before the season starts. Catching is always at a premium and we can find out what we have in Sisco before AR gets here. Again, if we could pick up 3B,SS,SP options, then that would be ideal. 
 

The no DH in the NL is a detriment to our trade options. 

Edited by sportsfan8703
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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Yes, I should have specified corner OF.

You were fine. CoC (and I) agreed that it wouldn't happen for a COF. I was just extending on his point about it being possible for a SS and threaded in your response because the BA/OBP numbers were shockingly similar for the seasons in question.

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20 hours ago, maybenxtyr said:

Does anyone else think he's similar to Jemile Weeks? Just me maybe. I still like the trade because hopefully it opens up another opportunity for some of the young pitchers. 

Isn’t he rated higher by scouts?

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1 minute ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

You were fine. CoC (and I) agreed that it wouldn't happen for a COF. I was just extending on his point about it being possible for a SS and threaded in your response because the BA/OBP numbers were shockingly similar for the seasons in question.

Now I'm wondering how close a defensive outlier like Heyward got.

Let's see, four seasons with a rWAR in the correct range.

2010- .277/.393

2012- .269/.335

2014- .271/.351

2015-  .293/.359

Lowest OPS+ in that span was 109.

I don't think anyone thinks that Santander is prime Heyward in right.

 

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Franco is more just wondering about 2022 3B.    Sure one of Gunnar, Westburg or Mayo will leapfrog a guy like him but maybe not by next year

If he signed an Iglesias contract, warts and all I think he might still be the best '22 option compared to current Orioles.   I do think he'd be a glove downgrade from Ruiz.   Just the age separates him for me from the Miller/Marwin type guys.

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50 minutes ago, VaBird1 said:

Isn’t he rated higher by scouts?

You are probably correct. I was just musing about position and size. I tried to find out the original power grade for Weeks but was unsuccessful. Weeks did project as a line drive hitter where Jones has more raw power potential. Unfortunately I can't go back and edit.

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4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

The extra million is meaningless. What do you think that is preventing the team from doing?

I mean, I know they are being insanely cheap but third base is the best way to spend the money right now.  We don’t have one.  We at least have some pitchers we can look at.

I think ME thinks Ruiz is ok for now. And I agree. He's not Brooks, or Manny, but he's ok enough at 3B imo. And he may or may not hit like a boss. He's shown it in spurts. He's not that old, age 27 season coming up. I think he deserves as much a chance as young pitchers on this NON-contending team. See what you have. At least 3B will be a filled position, for the ML minimum again this year. The Bros agree too!

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With the Cobb trade, I think we've now got the team that will begin the 2021 ML season, barring spring-training injuries to some infielders. 

There's not much more money to be saved by getting rid of anyone else: as of now, Davis, Mancini, Santander, Severino and Galvis will be the only Orioles making over $1 million. I'm pretty sure that the Orioles aren't nearly ready to trade prospects at positions where there's some depth for prospects at positions where they lack depth. So only Santander, Mancini if he gets off to a great start and maintains it for a while, or one of the catchers if a team gets desperate for a backup might bring back something useful in a trade. I don't see how any of that would happen before the season starts.

The Orioles seem to have no desire to spend anything to strengthen the pitching staff, and what would be the point of doing that -- to win 2 or 5 more games and finish 40 instead of 45 out of first? Some of the less promising young pitchers and ST invitees will get a chance to start, and if things get embarrassing it might be time for waiver claims and dumpster pickups.

The overall strategy is pretty clear: don't promote anyone to the Orioles until he's deemed ready and there's a spot for him to play, avoid contracts going beyond this year to make sure there's a spot for everyone next year who's deemed ready, and in 2021 (and 2022 to the extent prospects aren't ready to be promoted then) fill in the rest of the team by spending the minimum or just a little more. 

I'd like to see the Orioles deviate from this strategy by signing a third baseman who can play third base, but I'm not expecting that to happen.

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Just now, spiritof66 said:

With the Cobb trade, I think we've now got the team that will begin the 2021 ML season, barring spring-training injuries to some infielders. 

There's not much more money to be saved by getting rid of anyone else: as of now, Davis, Mancini, Santander, Severino and Galvis will be the only Orioles making over $1 million. I'm pretty sure that the Orioles aren't nearly ready to trade prospects at positions where there's some depth for prospects at positions where they lack depth. So only Santander, Mancini if he gets off to a great start and maintains it for a while, or one of the catchers if a team gets desperate for a backup might bring back something useful in a trade. I don't see how any of that would happen before the season starts.

The Orioles seem to have no desire to spend anything to strengthen the pitching staff, and what would be the point of doing that -- to win 2 or 5 more games and finish 40 instead of 45 out of first? Some of the less promising young pitchers and ST invitees will get a chance to start, and if things get embarrassing it might be time for waiver claims and dumpster pickups.

The overall strategy is pretty clear: don't promote anyone to the Orioles until he's deemed ready and there's a spot for him to play, avoid contracts going beyond this year to make sure there's a spot for everyone next year who's deemed ready, and in 2021 (and 2022 to the extent prospects aren't ready to be promoted then) fill in the rest of the team by spending the minimum or just a little more. 

I'd like to see the Orioles deviate from this strategy by signing a third baseman who can play third base, but I'm not expecting that to happen.

I disagree with that being the strategy so I wouldn't call it clear.

I think it has a lot more to do with managing service time.

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2 hours ago, scOtt said:

I think ME thinks Ruiz is ok for now. And I agree. He's not Brooks, or Manny, but he's ok enough at 3B imo. And he may or may not hit like a boss. He's shown it in spurts. He's not that old, age 27 season coming up. I think he deserves as much a chance as young pitchers on this NON-contending team. See what you have. At least 3B will be a filled position, for the ML minimum again this year. The Bros agree too!

I'm good going this route too. I don't like Franco that much and would stick with Ruiz. 

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