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The SS's and 3B in our system is overflowing so from that angle I can see them not wanting to draft one of those positions. BPA is probably going to be one of those positions at 5. 

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2 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

The SS's and 3B in our system is overflowing so from that angle I can see them not wanting to draft one of those positions. BPA is probably going to be one of those positions at 5. 

And that is how you don't pick Posey because you have Wieters.

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1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'd also like to say that given the uncertainties in the MLB draft you should go with the BPA, to maximize your chances of getting a difference maker.

As a college player, Frelick probably is the BPA, or maybe Kumar or Leiter, over a HS...what you're saying is you don't think he's the best future talent available. BPA isn't as cut and dried as you're trying to make it out to be...and that's especially true in the MLB draft. You're trying to balance ceiling, with likelihood to reach it, with floor. But the variety of outcomes is exceedingly high, even at the top of the draft. 

You make it sound as if there is a very clear pecking order, with large gaps differentiating the players, and that's just not the reality. 

I agree though that not drafting someone bc you already have someone at that position is silly. 

Edited by seak05
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26 minutes ago, seak05 said:

As a college player, Frelick probably is the BPA, or maybe Kumar or Leiter, over a HS...what you're saying is you don't think he's the best future talent available. BPA isn't as cut and dried as you're trying to make it out to be...and that's especially true in the MLB draft. You're trying to balance ceiling, with likelihood to reach it, with floor. But the variety of outcomes is exceedingly high, even at the top of the draft. 

You make it sound as if there is a very clear pecking order, with large gaps differentiating the players, and that's just not the reality. 

I agree though that not drafting someone bc you already have someone at that position is silly. 

I'm not saying that a clear pecking order exists.  But teams do have draft boards that take into account the things you mentioned.  I want them to pick the guy that is the highest on their board when the pick comes up, not someone five slots lower so they can pick a guy they have ranked 170 with the 200th pick.

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1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Word is the Rays had Posey as #1 on their board and didn't pick him due to concerns about money.

I have read that they were split on who the BPA was between Beckham and Posey. And that there were some in Tampa who thought Matusz was BPA.

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Just now, Beef Supreme said:

I have read that they were split on who the BPA was between Beckham and Posey. And that there were some in Tampa who thought Matusz was BPA.

Just going by what I read.

No doubt your BPA might not end up the BPA.

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2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not saying that a clear pecking order exists.  But teams do have draft boards that take into account the things you mentioned.  I want them to pick the guy that is the highest on their board when the pick comes up, not someone five slots lower so they can pick a guy they have ranked 170 with the 200th pick.

That's assuming Kjerstad was ranked the same on the Orioles' board as he was on Baseball Prospectus' board. We don't know whether he was #9 or #1.

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4 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

That's assuming Kjerstad was ranked the same on the Orioles' board as he was on Baseball Prospectus' board. We don't know whether he was #9 or #1.

I'm  talking about the 2021 draft. 

If I was talking about Kjerstad I would have said seven slots lower.  😉

 

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10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm  talking about the 2021 draft. 

If I was talking about Kjerstad I would have said seven slots lower.  😉

 

Well, if you are saying their 2021 pick will only be five slots lower than who they think is BPA down from seven last year, then I guess you think they are moving in the right direction. :-).

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1 minute ago, Beef Supreme said:

Well, if you are saying their 2021 pick will only be five slots lower than who they think is BPA down from seven last year, then I guess you think they are moving in the right direction. :-).

Might just be my inner optimist showing. 

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I agree, as a general rule, that we need to draft the BPA. But, what does that mean to Elias? Is that the best player right now? The best player based on projection? The best overall value over the next ten years? IDK, depends on which players are drafted ahead of us. Depends on the year.

Is he feeling good enough about the depth of the farm to go BPA instead of under slot? Maybe he feels that his choices are not worthy of the slot the team holds in round 1, and that his chances of getting over slot value in rounds 2-5 may provide better value for their dollar. I think some of the Oriole rumors out there are all about posturing for the ongoing negotiations between teams and agents. I admit I do not know much about Frelick, other than what i have read and a few videos. I just do not see him as an Elias guy. I think House and Lawlar are more of his type, but perhaps their number is not what he is looking for. Maybe I am wrong.

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11. Sal Frelick

Outfielder, Boston College

5-foot-9, 180 pounds

Frelick has been a standout on one of the best Boston College teams in recent history. Possesses plus bat speed, double-plus foot speed, and the ability to cover tons of ground in centerfield. Disciplined hitter with a short left-handed stroke and a knack for the barrel. Frelick has begun showing a little more pop in-game this year. Archetype is still being established, but some evaluators liken the finished package to a Brian Roberts type of player. Regardless, he's a true centerfield prospect and the hit tool is real. It's a pretty high floor despite some impact questions surrounding the bat. Scouts would like to see a little action at second base this spring. If/when that happens, that versatility and skillset will only improve his value, especially in a draft year lacking many advanced second base prospects. Frelick is a good bet to get popped in the top 20 picks.

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