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2021 MLB Mock Draft

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1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Thanks! That bio says he is known as a tough negotiator. It is always interesting to see how these shake out. You have to believe Lawlar has a bottom line number in mind. He is generally seen as a top 5 pick, but the number 1-2 talent. I tend to doubt that Elias will pay him slot, but if he falls to #5, he should.

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This draft is all over the place.  Anyone who thinks they have a bead on it is full of ****.  There's no clear consensus top three, let alone a consensus #1.  All the mocks look really different, save for some teams targeting shortstops, but that's not a stretch when 3 of the top prospects are at SS.

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10 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

This draft is all over the place.  Anyone who thinks they have a bead on it is full of ****.  There's no clear consensus top three, let alone a consensus #1.  All the mocks look really different, save for some teams targeting shortstops, but that's not a stretch when 3 of the top prospects are at SS.

But don’t worry, the “draft experts” on this site will bash the Os for a pick about a player they have never seen or even heard before the rankings came out.

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Good article here:

https://www.mlb.com/news/baltimore-orioles-2021-draft-preview

Callis: This is not a good Draft for college bats, especially at the top. There is [Louisville catcher] Henry Davis, and then there is a dropoff. But there are four really good high school shortstops. At least a couple of those guys could be available at No. 5. And there's two really good college pitchers in [Vanderbilt righties] Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker. And there's an excellent high school pitcher in [Oklahoma prep righty] Jackson Jobe. … While I don't think it's a deep Draft, I think the Orioles are in a good spot at pick No. 5, where they're going to get a really good player. … Unless they [make some] kind of deal or something, which has been rumored, they're going to get a player who might be on pretty equal footing with the guy who does go number one.

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1 hour ago, 7Mo said:

Good article here:

https://www.mlb.com/news/baltimore-orioles-2021-draft-preview

Callis: This is not a good Draft for college bats, especially at the top. There is [Louisville catcher] Henry Davis, and then there is a dropoff. But there are four really good high school shortstops. At least a couple of those guys could be available at No. 5. And there's two really good college pitchers in [Vanderbilt righties] Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker. And there's an excellent high school pitcher in [Oklahoma prep righty] Jackson Jobe. … While I don't think it's a deep Draft, I think the Orioles are in a good spot at pick No. 5, where they're going to get a really good player. … Unless they [make some] kind of deal or something, which has been rumored, they're going to get a player who might be on pretty equal footing with the guy who does go number one.

If the Orioles go the cheap route, it would really be disappointing. I think Rocker or Leiter would give the O's a guy that would be on pace with Hall and Rodriguez for very good top 3 of the rotation. I don't expect Lawlar or Mayer to fall, but passing on that kind of talent at #5 would be insane. 

I think the next tier of HS SS in Watson and House would make a strong case to be 1.1 in a lot of other years. 

This is a big draft for the Os and they need to nail this top pick here, especially after the unfortunate circumstances with Kjerstad. 

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3 minutes ago, baltimoreO's22 said:

If the Orioles go the cheap route, it would really be disappointing. I think Rocker or Leiter would give the O's a guy that would be on pace with Hall and Rodriguez for very good top 3 of the rotation. I don't expect Lawlar or Mayer to fall, but passing on that kind of talent at #5 would be insane. 

I think the next tier of HS SS in Watson and House would make a strong case to be 1.1 in a lot of other years. 

This is a big draft for the Os and they need to nail this top pick here, especially after the unfortunate circumstances with Kjerstad. 

If there is any consensus right now, I think it's that Mayer goes #1 and Leiter doesn't last past #4. Several seem to think Boston will take him if he's still on the board.

That leaves Lawlar, Watson, Davis, Rocker, House and Jobe, in that order, from MLB prospect rankings. 4 of those 6 will be available at pick #5.

If Lawlar says he will only sign for 1-1 slot money, that's roughly $2.2M above the #5 slot value. It would be interesting to see how the O's evaluated these 6 guys. Do they see Lawlar as that much better than the others? Personally, I really like Watson, Davis and Jobe. 

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7 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

If there is any consensus right now, I think it's that Mayer goes #1 and Leiter doesn't last past #4. Several seem to think Boston will take him if he's still on the board.

That leaves Lawlar, Watson, Davis, Rocker, House and Jobe, in that order, from MLB prospect rankings. 4 of those 6 will be available at pick #5.

If Lawlar says he will only sign for 1-1 slot money, that's roughly $2.2M above the #5 slot value. It would be interesting to see how the O's evaluated these 6 guys. Do they see Lawlar as that much better than the others? Personally, I really like Watson, Davis and Jobe. 

Lawlar wouldn't be a draft eligible sophomore, so I'm not quite so sure he would demand 1-1 money or else go to college. I think the Orioles could get him for 7M, meaning they'd need to be roughly 800k under the rest of the way, which is doable. 

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3 minutes ago, baltimoreO's22 said:

Lawlar wouldn't be a draft eligible sophomore, so I'm not quite so sure he would demand 1-1 money or else go to college. I think the Orioles could get him for 7M, meaning they'd need to be roughly 800k under the rest of the way, which is doable. 

Seems reasonable. Austin Martin signed for $7M as the 5th pick.

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1 hour ago, baltimoreO's22 said:

If the Orioles go the cheap route, it would really be disappointing. I think Rocker or Leiter would give the O's a guy that would be on pace with Hall and Rodriguez for very good top 3 of the rotation. I don't expect Lawlar or Mayer to fall, but passing on that kind of talent at #5 would be insane. 

I think the next tier of HS SS in Watson and House would make a strong case to be 1.1 in a lot of other years. 

This is a big draft for the Os and they need to nail this top pick here, especially after the unfortunate circumstances with Kjerstad. 

I don’t think you should think of the underslot strategy as the “cheap route.”   They are going to spend virtually all of the $11.8 mm they are permitted to spend.   It’s just a matter of who they spend it on.   

(Waiting for Can_of_corn to swoop in and point out that the O’s had the most unspent allotment of any team last year, which was something like $135 k out of $13.9 mm.)

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1 hour ago, 7Mo said:

If there is any consensus right now, I think it's that Mayer goes #1 and Leiter doesn't last past #4. Several seem to think Boston will take him if he's still on the board.

That leaves Lawlar, Watson, Davis, Rocker, House and Jobe, in that order, from MLB prospect rankings. 4 of those 6 will be available at pick #5.

If Lawlar says he will only sign for 1-1 slot money, that's roughly $2.2M above the #5 slot value. It would be interesting to see how the O's evaluated these 6 guys. Do they see Lawlar as that much better than the others? Personally, I really like Watson, Davis and Jobe. 

A well reasoned take. Have you looked at the crouch, leg kick and huge upper cut swing of Davis? Maybe the selecting teams and scouts feel that a swing change is in order, or maybe they like his launch angle and excellent power. I notice his hands at load are pretty far away from his body and I think he’ll have issues with pitchers busting him inside. I have heard mixed reviews about his defense. I have honestly not seen enough to say either way. The videos of his swing concern me, and the bat is why he is among the top prospects. I worry that he is up there simply because he is the most productive current college bat. There will be plenty of unpolished toolsy college guys in rounds 2-4 that may end up more valuable in a few years from now. Guys like Isaiah Thomas of Vandy and Robby Martin of FSU. 

Of Lawlar really wants 1-1 money, hard pass. See you in two years, kid. They would have to save about $2 million elsewhere in the top 10 rounds. You would have to think he is the next AROD or Griffey, Jr..

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12 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

A well reasoned take. Have you looked at the crouch, leg kick and huge upper cut swing of Davis? Maybe the selecting teams and scouts feel that a swing change is in order, or maybe they like his launch angle and excellent power. I notice his hands at load are pretty far away from his body and I think he’ll have issues with pitchers busting him inside. I have heard mixed reviews about his defense. I have honestly not seen enough to say either way. The videos of his swing concern me, and the bat is why he is among the top prospects. I worry that he is up there simply because he is the most productive current college bat. There will be plenty of unpolished toolsy college guys in rounds 2-4 that may end up more valuable in a few years from now. Guys like Isaiah Thomas of Vandy and Robby Martin of FSU. 

Of Lawlar really wants 1-1 money, hard pass. See you in two years, kid. They would have to save about $2 million elsewhere in the top 10 rounds. You would have to think he is the next AROD or Griffey, Jr..

Good post.

So, of the 6 most likely to be available, Lawlar might price himself out of reasonable range, Watson is 5'9" and likely a second baseman, Davis has the swing issues you outlined, House probably needs some swing adjustments and likely moves to third, and Jobe sounds outstanding but remains a HS RHP. I left out Rocker.

I understand the uproar coming from this board if they wind up picking Frelick, Cowser or Bachman, but it might not be the worst idea this year. Of course, Elias and company have infinitely more information available to them than I do so who knows.

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3 hours ago, 7Mo said:

If there is any consensus right now, I think it's that Mayer goes #1 and Leiter doesn't last past #4. Several seem to think Boston will take him if he's still on the board.

That leaves Lawlar, Watson, Davis, Rocker, House and Jobe, in that order, from MLB prospect rankings. 4 of those 6 will be available at pick #5.

If Lawlar says he will only sign for 1-1 slot money, that's roughly $2.2M above the #5 slot value. It would be interesting to see how the O's evaluated these 6 guys. Do they see Lawlar as that much better than the others? Personally, I really like Watson, Davis and Jobe. 

Just wondering on Leiter... Is there any speculation that he might skip the minors?  

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2 hours ago, 7Mo said:

Good post.

So, of the 6 most likely to be available, Lawlar might price himself out of reasonable range, Watson is 5'9" and likely a second baseman, Davis has the swing issues you outlined, House probably needs some swing adjustments and likely moves to third, and Jobe sounds outstanding but remains a HS RHP. I left out Rocker.

I understand the uproar coming from this board if they wind up picking Frelick, Cowser or Bachman, but it might not be the worst idea this year. Of course, Elias and company have infinitely more information available to them than I do so who knows.

Yes to all you wrote there. That is why the Ford under slot makes some sense, really. A very talented kid, strong and fast. Seems a lot like a young Austin Martin, except he can play catcher. A similar tool profile. A very interesting situation. It should really tell us more about the sophistication of Elias’ process. Some of the more popular publication picks are safe, and maybe a little lazy. When you take an undervalued kid and hang it all out there with the faith that you can coach that young fella up to be a star, at a lower cost. Man, that is conviction. We’ll see. 

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6 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Yes to all you wrote there. That is why the Ford under slot makes some sense, really. A very talented kid, strong and fast. Seems a lot like a young Austin Martin, except he can play catcher. A similar tool profile. A very interesting situation. It should really tell us more about the sophistication of Elias’ process. Some of the more popular publication picks are safe, and maybe a little lazy. When you take an undervalued kid and hang it all out there with the faith that you can coach that young fella up to be a star, at a lower cost. Man, that is conviction. We’ll see. 

Some might say ego.

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