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2 hours ago, Turtle said:

New mock out this morning from Keith Law at the Athletic. This has us taking Cowser over Kahlil Watson, Kumar Rocker, and Brady House.  

https://theathletic.com/2669873/2021/06/24/2021-mlb-mock-draft-2-0-jack-leiter-to-tigers-pirates-take-a-high-school-shortstop-in-keith-laws-latest-look/

 

5. Baltimore Orioles: Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State

Everyone expects Baltimore to take a position player here and go well under slot so they can go over slot with later picks, as they select again at 41, 65 and 76. They’ve been linked to Harry Ford and Brady House, but it doesn’t seem like either is all that likely to accept a big discount, while Cowser’s market after this probably doesn’t start till pick 9.

Why wouldn't Ford accept a discount when he's been projected to otherwise be selected in the mid-teens?

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On 6/24/2021 at 10:14 AM, Turtle said:

New mock out this morning from Keith Law at the Athletic. This has us taking Cowser over Kahlil Watson, Kumar Rocker, and Brady House.  

I'm happy to admit that I'm just being hopeful here and speculating, but if your goal is to take someone like Watson or Rocker or House at 5, and to be able to sign them for a small discount, wouldn't it be helpful for agents to be of the belief that the O's were going to take Cowser or someone in that ranking?

The slot values drop by about $400,000 per pick. If Watson, Rocker and House are still on the board at 5, 1 or more is going to drop by 2 or more picks which = $800,000+

If the O's get one of those 3 for $600,000 to $800,000 underslot, I'd feel pretty good about it. 

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Baseball America released their updated mock draft today. Has the O's taking Khalil Watson. 

"Baltimore is linked to all of the top four high school SS and it sounds like Mike Elias has spent some real time on Watson, who has a ton of heat late and is a real possibility to come off the board in multiple spots in front of this pick." 

At this point, I just want this to be over with.....

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47 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Baseball America released their updated mock draft today. Has the O's taking Khalil Watson. 

"Baltimore is linked to all of the top four high school SS and it sounds like Mike Elias has spent some real time on Watson, who has a ton of heat late and is a real possibility to come off the board in multiple spots in front of this pick." 

At this point, I just want this to be over with.....

I'm still of the camp that would love either Leiter or Rocker to fall to us and pair with Hall and Rodriguez as the future of our rotation. Both being college guys should move quickly. It would also signal that Elias' plan is for us to be competitive in 2023 which would give me some hope. Their timelines sync closer with Hall, Rodriguez, Adley than a high school pick. We've gone position player heavy the last few years, it would be nice to change course. 

That said, I'd be content with Watson. I just REALLY want them to go for who they feel is the best available talent rather than an underslot guy again. 

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On 6/24/2021 at 11:14 AM, Turtle said:

New mock out this morning from Keith Law at the Athletic. This has us taking Cowser over Kahlil Watson, Kumar Rocker, and Brady House.  

https://theathletic.com/2669873/2021/06/24/2021-mlb-mock-draft-2-0-jack-leiter-to-tigers-pirates-take-a-high-school-shortstop-in-keith-laws-latest-look/

 

5. Baltimore Orioles: Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State

Everyone expects Baltimore to take a position player here and go well under slot so they can go over slot with later picks, as they select again at 41, 65 and 76. They’ve been linked to Harry Ford and Brady House, but it doesn’t seem like either is all that likely to accept a big discount, while Cowser’s market after this probably doesn’t start till pick 9.

The only excuse for going underslot this time is if they think that frees them up to afford someone who they think would have gone top 10 - at 41 - which doesn't seem likely.  .  

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A lot of talk about Khalil Watson lately. He is certainly an outstanding talent and I would be a fan of the pick if he is our guy. Harry Ford is another toolsy guy, and maybe we save a little money for another pick. Colton Cowser was Keith Law's mock pick, and there is a lot to like there with a guy who might be a CF with 60 hit and run tools, but only 50 power currently. Supposed to have excellent hand-eye coordination and barrel awareness.

I have not seen his name linked to the Orioles, but if they decide to go college pitcher, Mike McGreevy out of UC Santa Barbara is very interesting to me. Seems very much what Elias looks for in a college arm. A strike thrower with command of a very good four pitch mix, 91-93 and touches 96 with run and sink. Comps to Shane Bieber at this stage. 

I would still not count out Brady House. The 70 power and arm are exciting. The only tool seen as average is his speed, the rest are above average. He is probably a very good 3B down the line, but is an very good athlete nonetheless. That profile seems very much what Elias has liked over the years. 

Any of these picks are very good, depends on who is still there and what their numbers are.

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5 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

A lot of talk about Khalil Watson lately. He is certainly an outstanding talent and I would be a fan of the pick if he is our guy. Harry Ford is another toolsy guy, and maybe we save a little money for another pick. Colton Cowser was Keith Law's mock pick, and there is a lot to like there with a guy who might be a CF with 60 hit and run tools, but only 50 power currently. Supposed to have excellent hand-eye coordination and barrel awareness.

I have not seen his name linked to the Orioles, but if they decide to go college pitcher, Mike McGreevy out of UC Santa Barbara is very interesting to me. Seems very much what Elias looks for in a college arm. A strike thrower with command of a very good four pitch mix, 91-93 and touches 96 with run and sink. Comps to Shane Bieber at this stage. 

I would still not count out Brady House. The 70 power and arm are exciting. The only tool seen as average is his speed, the rest are above average. He is probably a very good 3B down the line, but is an very good athlete nonetheless. That profile seems very much what Elias has liked over the years. 

Any of these picks are very good, depends on who is still there and what their numbers are.

Good post. I think Ty Madden would be another college pitcher in consideration.

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2 hours ago, 7Mo said:

Good post. I think Ty Madden would be another college pitcher in consideration.

I thought so, too, and then I watched him against Mississippi State. The fastball velo is 95-96, but it was straight. The secondaries were good, but I was not real impressed. Only one outing, but I would say that Bednar impressed me much more in that game. 

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3 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

I thought so, too, and then I watched him against Mississippi State. The fastball velo is 95-96, but it was straight. The secondaries were good, but I was not real impressed. Only one outing, but I would say that Bednar impressed me much more in that game. 

Bednar was definitely better that game.

The key is what will each of those guys look like in 24 months? Who has ceiling and who has limits. And I don't think that information is readily available.

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1 minute ago, 7Mo said:

Bednar was definitely better that game.

The key is what will each of those guys look like in 24 months? Who has ceiling and who has limits. And I don't think that information is readily available.

Absolutely. Maybe Madden is a guy that can increase the spin rate/axis on the fastball and breaking ball. Shape his pitches. Maybe the weight room holds the key for him. Bednar has a little lower ceiling, I think.

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26 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Absolutely. Maybe Madden is a guy that can increase the spin rate/axis on the fastball and breaking ball. Shape his pitches. Maybe the weight room holds the key for him. Bednar has a little lower ceiling, I think.

Or maybe Michael McGreevy is a more projectable than either. Higher floor guy.

It'll be interesting to see what the choice is if there are 2 college arms Elias feels real good about and 2 HS bats that may have more ceiling but also more risk. If the internal evaluations say Bednar and McGreevy have a very good chance to wind up a solid #3 starter or say House and Watson are also on the board, what's the choice?

I'm not going to be upset if we don't follow the mock projections.

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3 hours ago, 7Mo said:

Or maybe Michael McGreevy is a more projectable than either. Higher floor guy.

It'll be interesting to see what the choice is if there are 2 college arms Elias feels real good about and 2 HS bats that may have more ceiling but also more risk. If the internal evaluations say Bednar and McGreevy have a very good chance to wind up a solid #3 starter or say House and Watson are also on the board, what's the choice?

I'm not going to be upset if we don't follow the mock projections.

Bednar is probably a back end of round 1 guy. McGreevy is more projectable, but I know nothing of the intangibles on him. I would be very surprised if they go pitcher at 1-5 unless it is Leiter. Even that would be mildly curious to me.

I think it will be Watson or House, assuming Mayer, Lawlar, Jobe and Leiter are the first four picks. House might go to the Tigers, but I would be shocked if Elias goes with Jobe. Watson seems to be the guy. My only concern is the talk he ends up at 2B, or maybe CF. I do like the quick powerful hands and wrists, with a 55-60 arm. 

Cowser is much more interesting than I had realized. I think he’ll hit, run and defend in CF at a plus level. The knock is only average power, but the bat to ball skills are not apparently in doubt. If Cowser played at an SEC school, he would be a top 5-7 pick. Maybe they think he can add more strength and power with maturity. Harry Ford is a bit of a wildcard still. I have seen where he is described as a winner, a grinder, with great speed. 

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