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What if Lowther is ready?

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6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I disagree..people talk all the time about NEEDING to see DOMINANCE to bring up players.  That’s just absurd unless their definition of dominance is actually not the definition of dominance.

 

You can be a useful piece on the ML team without having put up dominant numbers in the minors.

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5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I disagree..people talk all the time about NEEDING to see DOMINANCE to bring up players.  That’s just absurd unless their definition of dominance is actually not the definition of dominance.

 

I agree with you that people use the term in a loose way.  I disagree that they expect six or seven straight no-hitters.

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I want the best 5 guys in the mound. If Lowther and Baumann are better than Felix and Harvey I’m going to be annoyed if they get sent down anyway.

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6 hours ago, NCRaven said:

I agree with you that people use the term in a loose way.  I disagree that they expect six or seven straight no-hitters.

I would hope you understand the point there.

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Start Lowther at triple A . I want Os management to do this right unlike the Calvary. If he’s dominating there then bring him up but I am not about rushing prospects anymore if we are banking on these guys . Same with Rustchman. I wouldn’t be upset if he DOES NOT make his debut this year .

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6 minutes ago, ofan239 said:

Start Lowther at triple A . I want Os management to do this right unlike the Calvary. If he’s dominating there then bring him up but I am not about rushing prospects anymore if we are banking on these guys . Same with Rustchman. I wouldn’t be upset if he DOES NOT make his debut this year .

We didn’t rush anyone before.  

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13 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I disagree..people talk all the time about NEEDING to see DOMINANCE to bring up players.  That’s just absurd unless their definition of dominance is actually not the definition of dominance.

 

Here’s my rough definition of dominant:

- ERA under 3.00 or more than a run lower than league average, whichever is lower.

- K/9 at least 20% above league average. 

- H/IP of 0.9 or less (8.1 H/9)

- K/BB of 3.0 or higher

A pitcher can do a lot less than that and still be very deserving of promotion, but that’s what I’d call dominant.  

It’s a tough standard.   Zac Lowther was EL pitcher of the year and yet met only one of those four criteria (6.2 H/9).    He came close on ERA (2.55 was 0.98 below league average).    His K/9 and K/BB did not meet the standard.   

Only eight major league pitchers met my standard last year: Bieber, Bauer, Darvish, Lamet, DeGrom, Maeda, Cole and Carrasco.   

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3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Here’s my rough definition of dominant:

- ERA under 3.00 or more than a run lower than league average, whichever is lower.

- K/9 at least 20% above league average. 

- H/IP of 0.9 or less (8.1 H/9)

- K/BB of 3.0 or higher

A pitcher can do a lot less than that and still be very deserving of promotion, but that’s what I’d call dominant.  

It’s a tough standard.   Zac Lowther was EL pitcher of the year and yet met only one of those four criteria (6.2 H/9).    He came close on ERA (2.55 was 0.98 below league average).    His K/9 and K/BB did not meet the standard.   

Only eight major league pitchers met my standard last year: Bieber, Bauer, Darvish, Lamet, DeGrom, Maeda, Cole and Carrasco.   

That all seems reasonable to me..and it’s also why it’s crazy to say a player must dominate to get a promotion.  My guess is if that was the criteria, we would rarely see promotions and players would never get out of the minors.

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16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

We didn’t rush anyone before.  

I'd say Gausman was rushed.  I don't know if it did any lasting damage to him but I do think they should have let him get some more time in the minors to work on his craft.

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4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That all seems reasonable to me..and it’s also why it’s crazy to say a player must dominate to get a promotion.  My guess is if that was the criteria, we would rarely see promotions and players would never get out of the minors.

It’s just one of those expressions people toss out a bit carelessly.  I don’t think anyone would suggest that promotions be limited to those who meet my definition.   But the converse probably is true: if a pitcher has had 10+ starts and is meeting those criteria, you have to question why he’s not getting promoted.  
 

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By the way, on reflection I think my 8.1 H/9 criterion for dominance was too easy.    I’d though major league average was around 9.0, but it’s actually 8.4.   Eastern League was 8.0 in 2019.    

So make it 7.5.   
 

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29 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'd say Gausman was rushed.  I don't know if it did any lasting damage to him but I do think they should have let him get some more time in the minors to work on his craft.

I don’t think he was rushed.  He was an advanced college arm.  His 2014 season, the year after he was initially called up and his first relatively full season in the majors saw him have a 3.57 ERA.  His ERA was 4.25 the next year but his K rate and BB rates was improved.

Now, where they did mess up is how they kept jerking him around, yo yo’ing him up and down, etc...I would have been fine to leave him down all of 2013 and he did need to refine his secondary pitches but I think there is a difference between needing more work and rushing.

To me, rushing would have been putting DL Hall in the majors in 2019. 
 

I am just not sure I believe in the concept of rushing a highly drafted college player.  They should be ready quickly if they were a top pick.

HS players are different, especially pitchers.

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He was a sophomore draftee that had fewer than 100 innings in the minors before his first promotion and had no clear third pitch.  That would have been fine if he was a reliever,

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22 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He was a sophomore draftee that had fewer than 100 innings in the minors before his first promotion and had no clear third pitch.  That would have been fine if he was a reliever,

That’s fine but as you like to say, you can develop in the majors too.

He was trusted with over 110 innings in 2014, with a team that was arguably the best in baseball.  I think he was fine.

Again, I wouldn’t have had an issue with him staying down all of 2013 and I honestly would have preferred that over the jerking him around that they did but I still wouldn’t define that as rushing him.  

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