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OrioleDog

DL Hall 2021

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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-conversation-with-orioles-pitching-prospect-dl-hall/

A fairly expansive interview following up on the Fangraphs rankings, including the now standard semi-technical note on work with Chris Holt sure to give us the fuzzies.

Hopefully he'll keep those bits about the Royals and Mariners passing on him on his bulletin board when things get down to business in a few years.   I can imagine the Orioles, Yankees, White Sox, Royals and Mariners being the ones able to surpass the Rays 88-win default circa 2024.   

Baysox Opening Night can't get here soon enough; other than Baumann's health I'm not sure there's a ton of really interesting stuff to see between now and May 3rd outside of crazy longshots.   Maybe April Swing Decisions crawling out of the MLB basement if they can.

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I enjoyed that. Gives hope that he’ll improve his control in a pretty meaningful way. If so, his prospect status moves up somewhat significantly.

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Crazy that he is 22 already.  He turns 23 in September.  It’s time for him to start making strides on his command and control and push himself up to the majors.  
 

Gotta figure if it doesn’t happen within the next year or so, that it may not happen at all.  Not that he can’t be a MLer but the ceiling is lowered significantly imo if he doesn’t show a lot of improvement soon.

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10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Crazy that he is 22 already.  He turns 23 in September.  It’s time for him to start making strides on his command and control and push himself up to the majors.  
 

Gotta figure if it doesn’t happen within the next year or so, that it may not happen at all.  Not that he can’t be a MLer but the ceiling is lowered significantly imo if he doesn’t show a lot of improvement soon.

I think this year will show if he’s destined to be a starter or a bullpen guy.  I’d say his floor is probably Tanner Scott, a lefty who’s hard to hit and gets a lot of whiffs but struggles with command.   I honestly can’t tell what his ceiling is.    Probably a no. 2-3 starter but it all depends on how command develops.   

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24 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think this year will show if he’s destined to be a starter or a bullpen guy.  I’d say his floor is probably Tanner Scott, a lefty who’s hard to hit and gets a lot of whiffs but struggles with command.   I honestly can’t tell what his ceiling is.    Probably a no. 2-3 starter but it all depends on how command develops.   

I think his ceiling is a #1.  That type of stuff from the left hand side is rare, although not as rare as it used to be.

Still, I think if his command and control turn out very good, he has an ace ceiling.  
 

I think his likely outcome, if he stays a starter, is a 3/4 starter because of his command.  Maybe almost like AJ Burnett. Good pitcher but never as good as he should be.

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22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think his ceiling is a #1.  That type of stuff from the left hand side is rare, although not as rare as it used to be.

Still, I think if his command and control turn out very good, he has an ace ceiling.  
 

I think his likely outcome, if he stays a starter, is a 3/4 starter because of his command.  Maybe almost like AJ Burnett. Good pitcher but never as good as he should be.

Considering there’s only been about 50 pitchers over the last 30 years with a higher rWAR than Burnett (28.6), I’d sign up for that outcome in a heartbeat.   He was a bit of a late bloomer, though.  Only 12.0 rWAR prior to free agency.  

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Hall's raw stuff certainly gives him a #1 ceiling, but the likelihood of him developing the command to do that is not very good. Of course, they once said that about Randy Johnson. 

It's nice to hear what he was working on when it comes to command, but I still heard his control not even command, was not very good at the alternate camp. Now, that very well may have been him working on things versus really competing like he would have in live minor league games, but still something he'll need to prove at Bowie this year.

I dropped him to #6 because I think he has a high reliever risk profile, but I definitely think his quality of stuff of four pitches gives him a chance if he can find a few pitches that he can command more times than not, including his fastball. If that happens he can stick as a starter.

I've also heard that his personality and that "ultra aggressive" approach might also be a better fit in the pen, but we're years away from that being tried. Rightfully so. With his kind of stuff, you are going to try and try to see if he can remain a starter because as was pointed out, there's not a lot of lefties in the major leagues with his velocity and stuff.

 

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On 2/25/2021 at 8:59 AM, Sports Guy said:

I think his ceiling is a #1.  That type of stuff from the left hand side is rare, although not as rare as it used to be.

Still, I think if his command and control turn out very good, he has an ace ceiling.  
 

I think his likely outcome, if he stays a starter, is a 3/4 starter because of his command.  Maybe almost like AJ Burnett. Good pitcher but never as good as he should be.

This brings up an issue I have had with terminology for a while.

The word ceiling literally means the best possible outcome. For Hall, that's #1 starter and hall of famer.

But when we're talking about prospect status, ceiling has this fuzzy basis in reality that really means the best possible outcome that the evaluator thinks is possible. For all, the evaluators see great stuff but without command/control. That means his prospect ceiling is something like 95% of his physical ceiling.

Hall's stuff is electric. He's a great athlete. His mentality seems to be like a bulldog. He's everything, but doesn't have that control. He'll be a very valuable Oriole at some point whether it's in a Britton-like role or a Burnett-like role.

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I've read many times that it takes left-handed pitchers longer to develop. I've never seen a reason why that is, but  as Tony mentioned, Randy Johnson was one of those pitchers.

Take a look at Sandy Koufax' major league stats. After looking at the stats for his first six seasons, you would have never guessed that he'd have the stats he did for his last six seasons.

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On 3/7/2021 at 7:39 AM, Can_of_corn said:

 

They cant move him to the bullpen if he has feel for four pitches. Including a 99MPH fastball. Though I doubt you'll ever see it that high when he's starting. 

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1 hour ago, jabba72 said:

They cant move him to the bullpen if he has feel for four pitches. Including a 99MPH fastball. Though I doubt you'll ever see it that high when he's starting. 

Mind the source for that quote.

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Jon Meoli was on 105.7 tonight with Jerry Coleman. Was asked about prospects other than Adley who he looked forward to seeing. Said he heard Hall got his command figured out between Atl camp and Fall ball. Said with him being a lefty, velocity and pitch mix could be a top 20 prospect. 

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He was higher rated than Grayson a couple of years ago. Since then, his command was bad and Grayson really took off. Would be hitting the lottery if both get close to their ceilings.

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