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Frobby

Hays: my favorite current Oriole

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8 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Maybe a better defender than Stowers.  But I think Stowers has better OBP skills, for sure.  

66 games at AA Bowie in 2018, Hays went .242/.271/.432 for a .703 OPS 288 plate appearances

66 games (yes, they both played 66 games in AA Stowers went .283/.377/.561 for a .938.  276 plate appearances

2018 for Hays was after his big 2017 campaign at AA where he had a .960 OPS.  I can't remember the excuses for the big fall off in performance, I'm assuming it had to do with injuries or something.  

I think Hays is a good player, I just don't deem him as necessary.  Wouldn't hesitate to include him in a trade if we get back something good.  

Hays had a serious leg problem in 2018 if I recall.   I think he’s a better defender than Stowers and has better contact skills.   Power is about even.   Stowers is clearly the more patient of the two by far.   

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1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

It's possible.  No one knows for sure.

I don't trust Hays at all.  Too many questions about hitting RHP consistently, not enough OBP skills and he's never too far from the IL.  

He's fun to watch, he brings energy but I'd try to shop him this offseason for sure.

Sorry, Frob.

Those are the reasons he likely doesn't have a lot of trade value - likely considerably less than Mullins.  Meanwhile he might end up surpassing Mullins within the next couple of years.  So I'd be more inclined to trade Mullins than Hays.  There's risk involved, but I'm inclined to bet on him.        

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19 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

Those are the reasons he likely doesn't have a lot of trade value - likely considerably less than Mullins.  Meanwhile he might end up surpassing Mullins within the next couple of years.  So I'd be more inclined to trade Mullins than Hays.  There's risk involved, but I'm inclined to bet on him.        

Ruzious, r u zerious? 

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31 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

Those are the reasons he likely doesn't have a lot of trade value - likely considerably less than Mullins.  Meanwhile he might end up surpassing Mullins within the next couple of years.  So I'd be more inclined to trade Mullins than Hays.  There's risk involved, but I'm inclined to bet on him.        

Mmm dunno about this. Sure, Hays has less value than Mullins, but Santander is the guy that has zero trade value IMO - injuries, 0.0 WAR this year, super streaky power, not nearly as good a defender as Hays, or as good on the bases. 

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1 hour ago, interloper said:

Mmm dunno about this. Sure, Hays has less value than Mullins, but Santander is the guy that has zero trade value IMO - injuries, 0.0 WAR this year, super streaky power, not nearly as good a defender as Hays, or as good on the bases. 

Agreed - which is why I didn't mention Santander - he's irrelevant in trade discussions.     

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6 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

You post comments like that too often - though I like the clever spelling thing you did.   

Well, thanks.  That's what I see whenever I see your name on here at first glance.  "R u zerious?"

Mullins is a tricky proposition right now.  No one knows if this season he's having is for real or not.  I don't believe anyone on the current roster is safe from being traded, IMO.  Mullins could return a nice package next year if he's performing at this level, though if he is, I wouldn't be surprised if the Orioles identify him as a central piece to build around.  

If we're playing the either/or game, I'd rather have Mullins, strictly because he's shown the ability to stay on the field.  Hays hasn't and I'd look to sell high on him, as high as his value can be right now.  

2 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

Agreed - which is why I didn't mention Santander - he's irrelevant in trade discussions.     

I don't believe he's irrelevant.  I think he's tradable, though the return won't be outstanding.  Switch hitter with some pop and was a gold glove finalist last year.  

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Hays had a serious leg problem in 2018 if I recall.   I think he’s a better defender than Stowers and has better contact skills.   Power is about even.   Stowers is clearly the more patient of the two by far.   

Just the eye test but to me it looks like Stowers has got more power than Hays.   That's not to say he'll hit more homers than Hays but it just looks like he generates significantly more power in his swing.    

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Santander has 0.0 WAR this year ?

I still like Santander as an everyday player.

Hays looks like a platoon player.  Unfortunately neither can stay 100% healthy so they're a little hard to know for sure.

Stowers and Neustrom are  back in the conversation although they're remarkably similar.

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3 hours ago, waynebug said:

Santander has 0.0 WAR this year ?

I still like Santander as an everyday player.

Santander's defense has been near the bottom this year. It's probably related to the ongoing ankle issue but he has no range now. He was above-average last year.

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The O's OF/DH have the 4th highest wRC+ and the most home runs in all of baseball. Hays' second half is a huge part of that. Add Adley and Stowers and any sort of upgrade to the infield and the O's offense may surprise next year. Just ignore the pitching......

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=40,39,38,41&splitArrPitch=&position=B&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=team&statgroup=2&startDate=2021-03-01&endDate=2021-11-01&players=&filter=&groupBy=season&sort=15,1

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Hays with his third potentially game winning hit in the last week, two of which were negated when the bullpen allowed 2 runs in the bottom half of the inning.   

Oh well.   He’s up to .254/.304/.464 on the season, and has reached base in 26 of his last 27 games, getting hits in 25 of them.   

Also, Hays has been spectacular in RISP situations, .347/.422/.526 in 110 PA with RISP.

 

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Hays reminds me of a quarterback facing the Prevent Defense.  The game is lost so the defense gives him meaningless yards, 1st downs and completions. 

His final stats look respectable.  When in fact he contributed little when the game was on the line.   

On a pennant contender he's a platoon outfielder or VERY good 4th outfielder.  But hey, he's young enough to change the equation.  Become a switchhitter ?

I'm just a FAN.  Fan is short for Fanatic.  Meaning my reasoning is highly suspect and open to criticism.

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36 minutes ago, waynebug said:

Hays reminds me of a quarterback facing the Prevent Defense.  The game is lost so the defense gives him meaningless yards, 1st downs and completions. 

His final stats look respectable.  When in fact he contributed little when the game was on the line.   

 

Huh?

High leverage: .924 OPS

Medium leverage: .812 OPS

Low leverage: .687 OPS

Pretty much the exact opposite of what you said.  

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