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Gunnar Henderson 2021

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9 hours ago, Philip said:

Could he make it all the way to the big leagues by next season? Manny was promoted at just 20, and he did ok.

Not a chance.   The O’s aren’t close to contention and they aren’t going to rush prospects.   I’d be very happy if Gunnar played well enough in the first half of 2022 to earn a promotion to AAA sometime in the second half.   

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51 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Not a chance.   The O’s aren’t close to contention and they aren’t going to rush prospects.   I’d be very happy if Gunnar played well enough in the first half of 2022 to earn a promotion to AAA sometime in the second half.   

I agree, but no one expected that situation for Manny prior to 2012 either.  Of course he was a much higher rated prospect then Gunnar.

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54 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Not a chance.   The O’s aren’t close to contention and they aren’t going to rush prospects.   I’d be very happy if Gunnar played well enough in the first half of 2022 to earn a promotion to AAA sometime in the second half.   

I wouldn't say no chance.  I think its unlikely but wouldn't say no way.

I think the key, which you essentially said here, is that he is in the picture to be on the team in OD of 2023 (or a few weeks later depending on service time rules).

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29 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I wouldn't say no chance.  I think its unlikely but wouldn't say no way.

I think the key, which you essentially said here, is that he is in the picture to be on the team in OD of 2023 (or a few weeks later depending on service time rules).

That’s to me the best case scenario.   We have no idea how Henderson will perform in AA or AAA.   He had his struggles in Hi A, though he was coming on at the end.   There’s no guarantee he’ll have instant success at the upper levels. Plus, he has serious work to do to improve his defense.    So, I won’t be surprised or disappointed if he needs to spend a good bit of 2023 in the minors.   

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12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That’s to me the best case scenario.   We have no idea how Henderson will perform in AA or AAA.   He had his struggles in Hi A, though he was coming on at the end.   There’s no guarantee he’ll have instant success at the upper levels. Plus, he has serious work to do to improve his defense.    So, I won’t be surprised or disappointed if he needs to spend a good bit of 2023 in the minors.   

He also struggled at times in what could be called an extreme pitchers park too.  That shouldn’t be overlooked.

Let me put it another way.  If he is as good a prospect as we think he is, he should be on the ML radar in 2023 and it should be earlier in the season than later.  

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36 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He also struggled at times in what could be called an extreme pitchers park too.  That shouldn’t be overlooked.

Let me put it another way.  If he is as good a prospect as we think he is, he should be on the ML radar in 2023 and it should be earlier in the season than later.  

Looking solely at his time in High-A:

Home:    .192 / .342 / .376 / .718

Away:    .271 / .344 / .492 /  .835

So that does seem to reinforce your argument a little bit.    Probably the biggest concern I have right now is his .665 OPS vs LHP this year.   But it's still early in his career.

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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

He also struggled at times in what could be called an extreme pitchers park too.  That shouldn’t be overlooked.

Let me put it another way.  If he is as good a prospect as we think he is, he should be on the ML radar in 2023 and it should be earlier in the season than later.  

This timeline is pretty acceptable in my opinion. I see him starting 2022 in AA and hopefully puts up good enough numbers to get AAA at bats. If that happens there is no reason he should not be on the radar for 2023 at the big league level. 

There's no reason he couldn't be playing in the major leagues at 22 years of age if he's going to end up an impact bat kind of player. 

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30 minutes ago, Aglets said:

Looking solely at his time in High-A:

Home:    .192 / .342 / .376 / .718

Away:    .271 / .344 / .492 /  .835

So that does seem to reinforce your argument a little bit.    Probably the biggest concern I have right now is his .665 OPS vs LHP this year.   But it's still early in his career.

Mine too. I won't call it a major concern until we see what happens next year because I've seen players improve those numbers or even switch them around in the minors from one year to the next. I'd call it a yellow flag of concern, but not a red flag yet.

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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

He also struggled at times in what could be called an extreme pitchers park too.  That shouldn’t be overlooked.

Let me put it another way.  If he is as good a prospect as we think he is, he should be on the ML radar in 2023 and it should be earlier in the season than later.  

I’ve mentioned several times in discussing Henderson that Aberdeen is an extreme pitchers’ park.   Still, the park doesn’t explain his 30% K rate in Hi A.

As to whether Henderson is “as good a prospect as we think he is,” I guess I’m a little more conservative on that front than some posters.   He’s had a good year.   I see him more as a fringe top 100 guy than as some can’t miss prospect.   

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19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’ve mentioned several times in discussing Henderson that Aberdeen is an extreme pitchers’ park.   Still, the park doesn’t explain his 30% K rate in Hi A.

As to whether Henderson is “as good a prospect as we think he is,” I guess I’m a little more conservative on that front than some posters.   He’s had a good year.   I see him more as a fringe top 100 guy than as some can’t miss prospect.   

You never know what they might be working on.

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18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

As to whether Henderson is “as good a prospect as we think he is,” I guess I’m a little more conservative on that front than some posters.   He’s had a good year.   I see him more as a fringe top 100 guy than as some can’t miss prospect.   

Yeah. I don't think we know this answer yet. He certainly has nice upside.

The main reason he won't get a chance in Baltimore next year is service time. Unless that rule changes significantly, I just don't see him even getting a cup of coffee. The only thing that could change that is if we're somehow competitive next year, just like when we brought Machado up, but I don't know anyone placing bets on that.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You never know what they might be working on.

We do know some stuff that they're working on and it's not exactly meant to make your stats look good. They'd rather you take strike three looking with a pitch off the plate than take that same pitch and hit it up the middle. They're all about swing decisions. It's a long term approach that will reduce counting statistics like hits and HRs. 

I do wonder how that approach translates to strikeouts though. 

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33 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Yeah. I don't think we know this answer yet. He certainly has nice upside.

The main reason he won't get a chance in Baltimore next year is service time. Unless that rule changes significantly, I just don't see him even getting a cup of coffee. The only thing that could change that is if we're somehow competitive next year, just like when we brought Machado up, but I don't know anyone placing bets on that.

I think the main reason is likely to be that he’s simply not ready, irrespective of service time.   But I’d love for him to have a great year and make me rethink that.   

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38 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think the main reason is likely to be that he’s simply not ready, irrespective of service time.   But I’d love for him to have a great year and make me rethink that.   

I think the definition of what is and isn't ready would change dramatically if the contract issues weren't what they are.

Guys would actually develop some aspects of their game at the major league level. Particularly guys with openings on the ML team. 

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