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Gunnar Henderson 2021

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3 hours ago, NCRaven said:

I doubt that Gunnar will be a consideration for the major league roster during 2022 unless service time rules are changed.  

But isn't that the point?  People talk about how players have to go through certain levels and check certain boxes to be promoted to the majors.  They only think that because its the way things have done and because of service time rules.  Its not necessarily because its what is best for the player and organization in terms of optimizing performance.  Its solely driven by money.  

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3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

But isn't that the point?  People talk about how players have to go through certain levels and check certain boxes to be promoted to the majors.  They only think that because its the way things have done and because of service time rules.  Its not necessarily because its what is best for the player and organization in terms of optimizing performance.  Its solely driven by money.  

I totally disagree.   For the vast majority of players, service time never comes into play.   This idea that Gunnar probably would be in the majors sometime next year except for service time rules is a fantasy.   He’s a very good prospect.   He’s not a guy who is likely to be ready to be a useful major league player next year.   He’s got a lot of development to do.  

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8 hours ago, Frobby said:

I totally disagree.   For the vast majority of players, service time never comes into play.   This idea that Gunnar probably would be in the majors sometime next year except for service time rules is a fantasy.   He’s a very good prospect.   He’s not a guy who is likely to be ready to be a useful major league player next year.   He’s got a lot of development to do.  

If the rule was, a player drafted out of HS is eligible for FA after 9 pro seasons, he would be up.

And sure, he has development to do..which can be done in the majors.

Im going to go back to what I said…this is just how things have been done, so it’s what you are used to.  If service time was different and guys became free agents sooner, you would see teams developing players more in the majors and you wouldn’t think much of it.

And you are right, we are only talking about a few guys…the players that actually matter.

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Gunnar definitely wouldn’t be up. He’d be overmatched at the major league level right now, and he’s not a plus defender. You would see Grayson up, but you wouldn’t have prior to this year, and you will next year. The only Orioles prospect who is being significantly impacted by service time manipulation is Adley. He would have been on the club this year, and conceivably last year.
 

When doing any sort of teaching, you want to challenge people, but not to their frustration level. 

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35 minutes ago, seak05 said:

Gunnar definitely wouldn’t be up. He’d be overmatched at the major league level right now, and he’s not a plus defender. You would see Grayson up, but you wouldn’t have prior to this year, and you will next year. The only Orioles prospect who is being significantly impacted by service time manipulation is Adley. He would have been on the club this year, and conceivably last year.
 

When doing any sort of teaching, you want to challenge people, but not to their frustration level. 

Completely agree with what is said about Gunnar here. He needs the AA and AAA development time and that cannot be done successfully at the major league level. 

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2 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Completely agree with what is said about Gunnar here. He needs the AA and AAA development time and that cannot be done successfully at the major league level. 

Other than ordering off a value menu what skills can you learn at AA/AAA that cannot be done successfully at the major league level?

We do have evidence of guys learning all sorts of things in the majors.

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51 minutes ago, seak05 said:

Gunnar definitely wouldn’t be up. He’d be overmatched at the major league level right now, and he’s not a plus defender. You would see Grayson up, but you wouldn’t have prior to this year, and you will next year. The only Orioles prospect who is being significantly impacted by service time manipulation is Adley. He would have been on the club this year, and conceivably last year.
 

When doing any sort of teaching, you want to challenge people, but not to their frustration level. 

I don’t think he would be up this year and I’m not saying he should be.  But he would get time next year if he showed good enough at AA.  For right now, with the current system, there isn’t a rush to do it.  You can take your time.

If the system was different, time wouldn’t be taken at this pace.  
 

I think Gunnar would have been in Aberdeen a lot sooner if rules were different. 

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11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Other than ordering off a value menu what skills can you learn at AA/AAA that cannot be done successfully at the major league level?

We do have evidence of guys learning all sorts of things in the majors.

Fielding for one thing is important to learn in the minors. Manny was promoted at 20 partly because his glove was seen as plus. That isnt the case right now with Gunnar. 

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8 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

Fielding for one thing is important to learn in the minors. Manny was promoted at 20 partly because his glove was seen as plus. That isnt the case right now with Gunnar. 

Why can't you learn fielding in the majors?

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3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Other than ordering off a value menu what skills can you learn at AA/AAA that cannot be done successfully at the major league level?

We do have evidence of guys learning all sorts of things in the majors.

You've made your thoughts about promoting guys well known. Given your thoughts, why shouldn't we just do away with 2 levels of the minor league system and promote the top 20 guys?

Understanding that you disagree, I think there is great value in hitters facing progressively better pitchers. That's what happens in the minor league system. Learning plate discipline, recognizing pitches, adjusting swings and learning yourself as a hitter is done more successfully in steps rather than being thrown in the deep end. At the major league level, once pitchers find a book on what a hitter can't handle, they can and will use that over and over. 

A hitter in the minor leagues will have opportunities to face some of that and learn how to recognize and adjust. At the major league level, he'll just have that weakness shoved down his throat to a point of failure. 

Confidence is a significant thing for a player. I've seen your posts and SG's posts saying if a hitter loses confidence, he wasn't mentally strong enough anyway. I disagree with that. I believe that ignores reality. 

What happened with Cedric Mullins? Do you believe he could have made the changes and adjustments he did had he stayed with the big club? He needed to re-set. He needed to make some adjustments away from the pressure of major league games. It happens every year with about every organization. Why was Jarred Kelenic sent down? Why isn't Luis Gil in the major league rotation? 

Players have to make adjustments at each level. Gunnar initially struggled at A+ and now appears to have made adjustments. Can you honestly say you think he would be better off at the major league level now? He would get eaten alive. His confidence would be shot. 

Wander Franco was a can't miss prospect. But Tampa kept him in MiLB for 829 AB's. Vlad Guerrero was can't miss. 1075 MiLB AB's. No one suggests Gunnar is that kind of can't miss guy. He's got 500 MiLB AB's. 

Maybe the rest of the parade is out of step and you're the only one right. But I doubt it.

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10 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

You've made your thoughts about promoting guys well known. Given your thoughts, why shouldn't we just do away with 2 levels of the minor league system and promote the top 20 guys?

Understanding that you disagree, I think there is great value in hitters facing progressively better pitchers. That's what happens in the minor league system. Learning plate discipline, recognizing pitches, adjusting swings and learning yourself as a hitter is done more successfully in steps rather than being thrown in the deep end. At the major league level, once pitchers find a book on what a hitter can't handle, they can and will use that over and over. 

A hitter in the minor leagues will have opportunities to face some of that and learn how to recognize and adjust. At the major league level, he'll just have that weakness shoved down his throat to a point of failure. 

Confidence is a significant thing for a player. I've seen your posts and SG's posts saying if a hitter loses confidence, he wasn't mentally strong enough anyway. I disagree with that. I believe that ignores reality. 

What happened with Cedric Mullins? Do you believe he could have made the changes and adjustments he did had he stayed with the big club? He needed to re-set. He needed to make some adjustments away from the pressure of major league games. It happens every year with about every organization. Why was Jarred Kelenic sent down? Why isn't Luis Gil in the major league rotation? 

Players have to make adjustments at each level. Gunnar initially struggled at A+ and now appears to have made adjustments. Can you honestly say you think he would be better off at the major league level now? He would get eaten alive. His confidence would be shot. 

Wander Franco was a can't miss prospect. But Tampa kept him in MiLB for 829 AB's. Vlad Guerrero was can't miss. 1075 MiLB AB's. No one suggests Gunnar is that kind of can't miss guy. He's got 500 MiLB AB's. 

Maybe the rest of the parade is out of step and you're the only one right. But I doubt it.

I read all of that and a few thoughts.

I never said that the higher minors were without value for all players.  You know I've never said that and it's pretty disingenuous to pretend otherwise.

Wander Franco and Vlad Jr were signed at 16, not 18.  So it is not at all surprising that they have more professional at bats in the minors.  Did you know that the Rays had Franco on their potential playoff roster last year?  That leads me to think that they weren't overly worried about his confidence getting crushed.  I also think that in both cases service time manipulation was a factor.  Do you think it was?

As for if he would be better now?  Once again not something I've ever said.  What I've said was that I think the advantage to Henderson would be in 2023 and beyond.  I've admitted he'd struggle mightily in 2021.

I'm not seeing anything that looks like actual evidence in your post.  It's your opinion, which is fine but you are presenting it as fact.

You might be right, maybe his will would be crushed by the competition and it would end his career.  But maybe the higher level of adversity would be good for his development.

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I read all of that and a few thoughts.

I never said that the higher minors were without value for all players.  You know I've never said that and it's pretty disingenuous to pretend otherwise.

Wander Franco and Vlad Jr were signed at 16, not 18.  So it is not at all surprising that they have more professional at bats in the minors.  Did you know that the Rays had Franco on their potential playoff roster last year?  That leads me to think that they weren't overly worried about his confidence getting crushed.  I also think that in both cases service time manipulation was a factor.  Do you think it was?

As for if he would be better now?  Once again not something I've ever said.  What I've said was that I think the advantage to Henderson would be in 2023 and beyond.  I've admitted he'd struggle mightily in 2021.

I'm not seeing anything that looks like actual evidence in your post.  It's your opinion, which is fine but you are presenting it as fact.

You might be right, maybe his will would be crushed by the competition and it would end his career.  But maybe the higher level of adversity would be good for his development.

 

 

 

I'd love to have "facts" to trot out to support my beliefs, same as you would. Other than player by player example, I'm not sure what you would like to see. But I see what every organization does with their prospects. None have adopted your approach. David Clyde failed because his confidence was crushed. His words.

You're right about Wander and Vlad being signed at young ages. Doesn't matter IMO. Until you're facing the guys you face in MiLB, you can't be making the same kind of adjustments I'm talking about. No amount of high school AB's or even college AB's preps you for professional challenges. 

Adley played at a very high level in college and faced very good college competition. That doesn't mean he was ready for MLB on draft day no more than Asa Lacy or Max Meyer or Spencer Torkelson or Joey Bart or Reid Detmers was ready for MLB. 

Why is there no organization anywhere following your idea? Why does every organization follow essentially the same path if MiLB doesn't have value for the highest level prospects? Surely you would agree that every organization would love to bring up that young, inexpensive prospect as soon as possible. Is it a service time issue for each of the top 100 prospects? Do you believe that if the next CBA eliminates service time as an issue, then most or all of the top 100 immediately jump to the MLB roster?

I'm sorry that you believe I was "disingenuous". Not my intention. I honestly thought you believed every prospect should just be promoted to MLB or be cut loose or just understand that they're worthless. That seems like the message from your previous posts. 

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4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

If the rule was, a player drafted out of HS is eligible for FA after 9 pro seasons, he would be up.

And sure, he has development to do..which can be done in the majors.

Im going to go back to what I said…this is just how things have been done, so it’s what you are used to.  If service time was different and guys became free agents sooner, you would see teams developing players more in the majors and you wouldn’t think much of it.

And you are right, we are only talking about a few guys…the players that actually matter.

I totally disagree with this take.  I think a player's confidence is a key component of their success.  I'm no scout, I don't pretend to be, but if Gunnar was in the Majors right now he'd be overmatched.  Learning different parts of the game, studying pitchers, what to do in different pitch counts, and then being exposed gradually to increased talent along the way is crucial for 99% of professional baseball players.  

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6 minutes ago, Prayin4Reign said:

I totally disagree with this take.  I think a player's confidence is a key component of their success.  I'm no scout, I don't pretend to be, but if Gunnar was in the Majors right now he'd be overmatched.  Learning different parts of the game, studying pitchers, what to do in different pitch counts, and then being exposed gradually to increased talent along the way is crucial for 99% of professional baseball players.  

Yes, I agree he would be overmatched right now…and I’m not calling for him to be here right now.

What I am telling you is that if the rules were different and he would become a FA much sooner, he would be in the majors much sooner and development would have to occur at that level.  Plenty of players throughout the history of the game have come up early and developed in the majors.

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