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How far are the O's away from being a winning team?

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6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Hitting with runners in scoring position is a skill that causes RBIs. Its called situational hitting these days.  If you can't recognize that.................

No it isn't.

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wRC+ is a good stat.  How do Trey and DJ compare in terms of "clutchness"?

 

Let's look at Trey.

Low leverage- 124

Medium leverage- 115

High leverage- 73

 

 

Let's look at DJ Stewart. 

Low leverage- 115

Medium leverage- 73

High leverage- 261

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Mancini's career RBI totals are 78, 58, 97. HR totals are 24, 24, 35. So it is not like he is a consistent 30/100 guy either. 

Mancini has it 1 HR per 4.47 PA's vs Stewart 1 HR per 4.04 PA's. Their differential between slugging and BA is about the same. I would not say Mancini has more power. 

It's hard to project DJ based on such a small sample but I think it is at least plausible to think he might replace 80-90% of Mancini's production at a fraction of the cost, even if he hits .230, because his OBP is so good. I also like that DJ is younger, left handed, and can play some OF. One of the things I learned from the Buck-Dan years is that too many DH types (particularly RH) are such a bottleneck for roster construction it's not worth it to get a few more points of OPS+. Ironically, one of the reasons we haven't seen much of DJ is we have always had too many DH types blocking him.

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On 5/14/2021 at 2:44 PM, wildcard said:

The problem with with trading Mancini is you have to replace his offense.

DL Hall should be in the majors to start the 2022 season depending on service time.  He could be two weeks later than that.  He spends half a season at AA, half a season in AAA and he is a major leaguer in 2022.

So you have Means and DL Hall in the rotation next season.    I would argue that Grayson is not more than 3 months behind DL Hall.  Maybe less.  I don't think  Grayson is going to spend more than a month with the Ironbirds this year.    So by middle season 2022 the O's have Means, DL Hall,  Grayson, Kremer and one of Akin, Lowther, Bradish, Lopez, Baumann  or Tyler Wells in the rotation.   That is a pretty good rotation to go with a good pen.

So the O's need offense in 2022.  They have Mullins, Hays and Santander in the outfield.   Mountcastle at 1B.   Adley coming hopefully in 2022 sometime.   As it is now SS/2B/3B are spots Elias needs to fill over the winter if Jones and Bannon are not the answers.   ]

Where is the replacement for Mancini?  Stewart will be lucky to be in the majors at the rate he is going.  He has one option left that may be used this year.  Then he is out of options and has to be on the 26 man roster.  And he has not earned it to date.  The audition is on going but does not look good.

You have Diaz but he can't stay healthy and he joins Hays, Santander  and Stewart who have a history of needing to send time of the IL.   So you can't count on Diaz for regular offense from what we have seen so far.

So trading Mancini leaves an offense hole.  What you get for him is probably prospects that move the talent needed to contend out to 2023/2024.   That is not what I think Elias is trying to accomplish.

Once Adley, DL Hall and Grayson are in the majors its time to WIN.  The six year window of contention has begun.   Its time to do what Dan Duquette did when he took over after the 2011 season.   Put a contending team on the field.  Trading Mancini does help achieve that goal.

You are wrong..you don’t have to replace his offensive stats.  You have to replace his overall production.  
 

You could replace that by improving defense, pitching or offense.

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3 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

One thing I will say on behalf of DJ. He has a solid OBP with > 10% walk rate. He is one of the few O's to put together good ABs on a regular basis. We saw a glimpse of that last night. I don't think he will replace all of Mancini but with his power and OBP he is not far off. That may be more a reflection of Mancini's flaws than DJs value but I think people are looking at the batting average and dismissing DJ. To be honest I wouldn't mind Mountcastle getting demoted for a while to get a longer look at DJ.

Sending down Mountcastle is an atrocious idea..especially if the reasoning is to give more at bats to Stewart.

DJ will get his at bats.

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52 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Sending down Mountcastle is an atrocious idea..especially if the reasoning is to give more at bats to Stewart.

DJ will get his at bats.

It's not something I would do lightly and the reason would be to get him back on track. There has to be a limit when a guy is Chris Davis level of bad.

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16 hours ago, wildcard said:

Hitting with runners in scoring position is a skill that causes RBIs. Its called situational hitting these days.  If you can't recognize that.................

There is a ton of research out there  showing that hitting with runners in scoring position is not a skill, i.e., variation between a player’s performance with the bases empty and RISP is the result of random variation, not skill.    Not saying there are ZERO exceptions to that, but very few.    

Now, at the same time, certain styles of hitting may lend themselves to getting runners home from scoring position more often.    Show me a guy who hits a lot of fly balls and doesn’t strike out a lot, and he probably has a good record of getting guys in from home with less than two out.  

Looking at Stewart in particular, he’s a career .220/.334/.404 hitter who’s hit .263/.378/.438 with RISP.  Certainly no evidence he can’t hit with RISP.

 

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

There is a ton of research out there  showing that hitting with runners in scoring position is not a skill, i.e., variation between a player’s performance with the bases empty and RISP is the result of random variation, not skill.    Not saying there are ZERO exceptions to that, but very few.    

Now, at the same time, certain styles of hitting may lend themselves to getting runners home from scoring position more often.    Show me a guy who hits a lot of fly balls and doesn’t strike out a lot, and he probably has a good record of getting guys in from home with less than two out.  

Looking at Stewart in particular, he’s a career .220/.334/.404 hitter who’s hit .263/.378/.438 with RISP.  Certainly no evidence he can’t hit with RISP.

 

Depends on what you want to do.  Driving in runners or getting on base with runners in scoring position.    Mancini  career slugging pct with RISP is 478.   DJ is more likely to get on base but Mancini is more likely to drive runners in.   High Slugging pct with RISP  equals RBIs.     High OBP with RISP equals passing the baton to the next batter.

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55 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Depends on what you want to do.  Driving in runners or getting on base with runners in scoring position.    Mancini  career slugging pct with RISP is 478.   DJ is more likely to get on base but Mancini is more likely to drive runners in.   High Slugging pct with RISP  equals RBIs.     High OBP with RISP equals passing the baton to the next batter.

And his career slugging is 482

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2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think it is pretty clear that Wildcard is beyond reason on this topic.

I understand what he’s saying.   A guy with a high SLG is going to drive in more runs than a guy whose high OBP is largely driven by walks.    That makes sense.    I just don’t think the characteristics of the hitter change much in RISP vs. non-RISP situations.    

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On 5/15/2021 at 3:58 PM, Aristotelian said:

Mancini's career RBI totals are 78, 58, 97. HR totals are 24, 24, 35. So it is not like he is a consistent 30/100 guy either. 

Mancini has it 1 HR per 4.47 PA's vs Stewart 1 HR per 4.04 PA's. Their differential between slugging and BA is about the same. I would not say Mancini has more power. 

It's hard to project DJ based on such a small sample but I think it is at least plausible to think he might replace 80-90% of Mancini's production at a fraction of the cost, even if he hits .230, because his OBP is so good. I also like that DJ is younger, left handed, and can play some OF. One of the things I learned from the Buck-Dan years is that too many DH types (particularly RH) are such a bottleneck for roster construction it's not worth it to get a few more points of OPS+. Ironically, one of the reasons we haven't seen much of DJ is we have always had too many DH types blocking him.

I think Mancini has a pretty good chance to be a 30/100 guys this season.  He is on pace for 34/146.   I don't expect him to stay there but 30/100 is likely if he stays healthy.

I also think that driving in runs is a skill that Mancini is pretty good at doing.

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I want to keep Mancini only because I have no interest in the bucket of balls return they will get which will be touted as if we just traded for Wander Franco. When was the last time a team traded anything for a power hitting 1b?

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9 minutes ago, andrewochs615 said:

I want to keep Mancini only because I have no interest in the bucket of balls return they will get which will be touted as if we just traded for Wander Franco. When was the last time a team traded anything for a power hitting 1b?

Steve Finley, Pete Harnisch and Curt Schilling for Glenn Davis

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