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Frobby

14-16: at this point last year we were halfway through the season!

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It’s hard to imagine that last year the 30-game mark was the halfway point in the season.   Just like last year, the O’s are 14-16 at the 30 game mark.   But, the path there has been different.   

Last year through game 30 the team was hitting .258/.322/.442 and had scored 144 runs (4.8 per game).    At the same point this year, they’re hitting .228/.288/.371 and have scored 114 runs (3.8 per game).

Last year at this point the team ERA was 4.77, and the team had allowed 156 runs, 15 of which were unearned.    This year, the team ERA is 4.11 and they have allowed 126 runs, only 6 of which are unearned.   

What’s interesting is that in 30 games played, this year’s team has scored exactly 30 fewer runs, and allowed 30 fewer runs, than at the 30-game mark last year.  

Last year the offense got worse in the second 30 games (130 runs scored compared to 144), but the pitching got a little better (138 runs allowed compared to 156).  The team’s run differential was actually better in the second half than the first (-8 compared to -12), but the record was worse (11-19 compared to 14-16).    

So, we’ll see how things go for the next 30 games compared to last year, and then for the 102 that we never played in 2020.    



 

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I feel like this year we have underachieved a bit. Mullins of course is playing over his head but pretty much everyone else is hitting below their norms (Mancini, Mountcastle, Hays, plus Santander injured). Kremer and Zimmerman have been disappointing, but Kremer just had a good turn. We've also done it against a pretty tough schedule. All of which is to say 14-16 feels more sustainable this time. Of course, I probably said the same thing last year with equally good reasons when looking through my orange colored glasses. 

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41 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I feel like this year we have underachieved a bit. Mullins of course is playing over his head but pretty much everyone else is hitting below their norms (Mancini, Mountcastle, Hays, plus Santander injured). Kremer and Zimmerman have been disappointing, but Kremer just had a good turn. We've also done it against a pretty tough schedule. All of which is to say 14-16 feels more sustainable this time. Of course, I probably said the same thing last year with equally good reasons when looking through my orange colored glasses. 

I don't see how this team is underachieving at 14-16. Do you think it's a team that, based on the level of talent and the distribution of that talent, and on a comparison to other teams, should be playing over .500? I don't.

What I do think we have are a lot of players who so far have performed above expectations (many of them pitchers, whom you did not mention), a lot of players who have performed below expectations, and not many who so far are playing at right about the level that most of us expected. That distribution may be a little unusual, but maybe not where we're only 30 games into the season and where there are a lot of young players whose expected level of play is based on a limited track record.

 

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

It’s hard to imagine that last year the 30-game mark was the halfway point in the season.   Just like last year, the O’s are 14-16 at the 30 game mark.   But, the path there has been different.   

Last year through game 30 the team was hitting .258/.322/.442 and had scored 144 runs (4.8 per game).    At the same point this year, they’re hitting .228/.288/.371 and have scored 114 runs (3.8 per game).

Last year at this point the team ERA was 4.77, and the team had allowed 156 runs, 15 of which were unearned.    This year, the team ERA is 4.11 and they have allowed 126 runs, only 6 of which are unearned.   

What’s interesting is that in 30 games played, this year’s team has scored exactly 30 fewer runs, and allowed 30 fewer runs, than at the 30-game mark last year.  

Last year the offense got worse in the second 30 games (130 runs scored compared to 144), but the pitching got a little better (138 runs allowed compared to 156).  The team’s run differential was actually better in the second half than the first (-8 compared to -12), but the record was worse (11-19 compared to 14-16).    

So, we’ll see how things go for the next 30 games compared to last year, and then for the 102 that we never played in 2020.    



 

Not sure if you've looked, but is this lack of runs scored and allowed down across baseball?

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20 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Not sure if you've looked, but is this lack of runs scored and allowed down across baseball?

4.58 in AL last year. This year in AL it’s 4.34. 
 

NL was in 4.71 2020 this year 4.37.  Obviously had DH last year.  
 

NL based on last 2 years is a better run scoring environment. 

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19 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Not sure if you've looked, but is this lack of runs scored and allowed down across baseball?

The average OPS in MLB is .705 versus .740 for last year, and average runs a game is 4.36 compared to 4.65 in 2020. But two factors that need to be considered are players should start hitting more as the weather warms up and the NL had the DH last season. 

Also one thing that stands out is the league batting average is .234 and this would be a record low league batting average since at least 1900. Even in 1968, "the year of the pitcher", the league batting average was .237 and the DH was five years away in the AL. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/bat.shtml

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4 hours ago, spiritof66 said:

I don't see how this team is underachieving at 14-16. Do you think it's a team that, based on the level of talent and the distribution of that talent, and on a comparison to other teams, should be playing over .500? I don't.

What I do think we have are a lot of players who so far have performed above expectations (many of them pitchers, whom you did not mention), a lot of players who have performed below expectations, and not many who so far are playing at right about the level that most of us expected. That distribution may be a little unusual, but maybe not where we're only 30 games into the season and where there are a lot of young players whose expected level of play is based on a limited track record.

 

I wasn't referring to the record so much as a few key individuals that are below their norms and overall offense being down. As I said. 14-16 feels more sustainable. That doesn't mean I expect over .500. I expect over .417. 

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