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Can Mullins Bumbry?

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Obviously, he's leadoff everyday, and a candidate for downballot MVP votes as is, but time will tell if the breakout so far this year raises his baseline long term.    Today I can't quite say any more he's the perfect fourth outfielder to complement Diaz/Hays/Santander this year, and Santander/Hays/Kjerstad eventually.

I was a little kid when Bumbry was a CF fixture, so of course he's my template for Orioles CF.   A lot of the demographics match, but Mullins never played near Bumbry's level, plus he switch hit and Al only hit left-handed.    Well now Mullins only hits left-handed too, and...he's playing that well.

Like Mullins, Bumbry was a college guy, and a bit "old" by the time he grew productive in MLB.   Al was Rookie of the Year at 26, with a 4-win season.   In his early 20's, he did some military service, but had full batting champion type seasons in the high minors in 1971 and 1972 while Age 27-28 Paul Blair had the MLB gig.    Before this dive, you could have won a bar bet with me if you knew Al Bumbry was only three years younger than Paul Blair, who feels a generation apart to me.    Young Bumbry played a lot of LF/RF while Blair was still around.

Anyway, Bumbry had a 12-year run as a regular despite being 26 in Year 1.    He amassed 24 career WAR, and had a pretty serious Sophomore Slump after the Rookie of Year splash.   Mullins is 40% of the way to Age 26 Bumbry's 4-wins in a little over a month.    I still think a 2.0 WAR/year regular for half a decade is probably more than we should hope for, but go Oriole go!    Maybe he really does make Santander trade bait when Elias gets to thinking on how to get the best team all on the field in a year or three.    Unless of course the trade bait is him.

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I was comparing them back when Mullins was in A ball.  Bee made more consistent contact, while Mullins has more pop.  They are similar defensively - both have excellent range and try to make up for their lack of a good arm by getting into good position to throw before they catch the ball.  Bee was the more dangerous base-stealer.  

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1 hour ago, Ruzious said:

I was comparing them back when Mullins was in A ball.  Bee made more consistent contact, while Mullins has more pop.  They are similar defensively - both have excellent range and try to make up for their lack of a good arm by getting into good position to throw before they catch the ball.  Bee was the more dangerous base-stealer.  

Bumbry struck out in 12.6% of PAs, which was almost exactly league average in 1980, probably a bit less than average across his career.  He had an ISO of 0.096, compared to a league mark of 0.122.

Mullins is striking out 20.2% of the time, in 2021 the league mark so far is 24.1%.  ISO (career) for Mullins is .140 vs. league of .171.

In context Mullins strikes out about the same and has more power.  Mullins may not hit for as high an average, but the way baseball is trending few will.  We have a long way to go in '21, but right now batting averages are the lowest in all of MLB history.  Lower than 1968, lower than the deadest years of the deadball era.

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3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Bumbry struck out in 12.6% of PAs, which was almost exactly league average in 1980, probably a bit less than average across his career.  He had an ISO of 0.096, compared to a league mark of 0.122.

Mullins is striking out 20.2% of the time, in 2021 the league mark so far is 24.1%.  ISO (career) for Mullins is .140 vs. league of .171.

In context Mullins strikes out about the same and has more power.  Mullins may not hit for as high an average, but the way baseball is trending few will.  We have a long way to go in '21, but right now batting averages are the lowest in all of MLB history.  Lower than 1968, lower than the deadest years of the deadball era.

If people have historically low batting averages....then that means we should be seeing a lot more K's and an increase in dominant pitching performances.

Wait a second.

Seriously though.  The modern record for no hitters in one season is 7.  Curious drungo if you think that record will get broken this year?  Or completely shattered?

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20 minutes ago, Aglets said:

If people have historically low batting averages....then that means we should be seeing a lot more K's and an increase in dominant pitching performances.

Wait a second.

Seriously though.  The modern record for no hitters in one season is 7.  Curious drungo if you think that record will get broken this year?  Or completely shattered?

There will be 8 no-hitters this year...thrown by John Means. 

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On 5/8/2021 at 4:14 PM, Aglets said:

If people have historically low batting averages....then that means we should be seeing a lot more K's and an increase in dominant pitching performances.

Wait a second.

Seriously though.  The modern record for no hitters in one season is 7.  Curious drungo if you think that record will get broken this year?  Or completely shattered?

I guess it depends on if the low batting averages keep up.  Offense is always (or almost always) lower in April/May/September, than June, July, and August.

If the league is hitting .230 in June they might wind up the balls a little tighter.  And luck.  No hitters are partly luck.

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6 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I guess it depends on if the low batting averages keep up.  Offense is always (or almost always) lower in April/May/September, than June, July, and August.

If the league is hitting .230 in June they might wind up the balls a little tighter.  And luck.  No hitters are partly luck.

Yeah, seems like way more than usual fly balls dying on the track... at least by the Orioles. :(

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On 5/8/2021 at 10:12 AM, OrioleDog said:

Obviously, he's leadoff everyday, and a candidate for downballot MVP votes as is, but time will tell if the breakout so far this year raises his baseline long term.    Today I can't quite say any more he's the perfect fourth outfielder to complement Diaz/Hays/Santander this year, and Santander/Hays/Kjerstad eventually.

I was a little kid when Bumbry was a CF fixture, so of course he's my template for Orioles CF.   A lot of the demographics match, but Mullins never played near Bumbry's level, plus he switch hit and Al only hit left-handed.    Well now Mullins only hits left-handed too, and...he's playing that well.

Like Mullins, Bumbry was a college guy, and a bit "old" by the time he grew productive in MLB.   Al was Rookie of the Year at 26, with a 4-win season.   In his early 20's, he did some military service, but had full batting champion type seasons in the high minors in 1971 and 1972 while Age 27-28 Paul Blair had the MLB gig.    Before this dive, you could have won a bar bet with me if you knew Al Bumbry was only three years younger than Paul Blair, who feels a generation apart to me.    Young Bumbry played a lot of LF/RF while Blair was still around.

Anyway, Bumbry had a 12-year run as a regular despite being 26 in Year 1.    He amassed 24 career WAR, and had a pretty serious Sophomore Slump after the Rookie of Year splash.   Mullins is 40% of the way to Age 26 Bumbry's 4-wins in a little over a month.    I still think a 2.0 WAR/year regular for half a decade is probably more than we should hope for, but go Oriole go!    Maybe he really does make Santander trade bait when Elias gets to thinking on how to get the best team all on the field in a year or three.    Unless of course the trade bait is him.

Bumbry, who hit .578 during his final year at Virginia State, got a late start on his MLB career in part because he spent two years in the U.S. Army, including a year in Vietnam where he was a platoon leader and a recipient of The Bronze Star.  

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I didn't count Mullins in the offseason when I was looking at what I thought then was the core group, and how old they would be next year when hopefully the switch gets flipped.   He belongs there now, and is pretty easy...he is just one week different than Anthony Santander.

And in the land of more fanciful hopes, both of them are just one week different than Carlos Correa, who a month in is doing okay not great in what I thought might be a FA riches power drive kind of year for him.   

All three of them were born Sept/Oct 1994 when baseball went without its postseason before Cal helped save baseball in '95.

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Bumbry is a very obvious comp for Mullins.   Mullins definitely has more power, and while they’re pretty equal on speed, I’d say Bumbry was a better basestealer.

By the way, over his last 23 games, Mullins is hitting .253/.310/.473.   He’s cooled off considerably but a lot of people haven’t noticed because his overall numbers are still very good and he’s been putting a few balls over the fence.   Frankly, before the season I would have signed in blood for .253/.310/.473, so I’m not complaining.   

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