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Blaine Knight

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22 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Well, the story of that article was 1) he was good, 2) got all out of whack and 3) figured out what made him good and started doing it again.

Hopefully that happens with Lowther, et al too. I just have this bad feeling that the O's are using advanced data and trying to make guys into something that they're not. It will work for some, but might screw guys up in the transition. I don't know. Just a feeling. I have no real evidence to confirm it.

Well, Lowther was plenty good in 2019 and they were using the data then.  I think the year off may have hurt him, plus the O’s have not given him regular innings this year.  

In general, it seems a lot of our pitchers who had success in AA are finding the transition to AAA to be difficult:

Lowther 2.55 ERA in AA, 6.93 in AAA

Wells 2.95/4.19

Smith 2.35/5.00

Bradish 0.00/6.35

Not sure if it’s the adjustment to the major league ball, or just the increased level of competition.


 

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I had not noticed that.   Personally I’m not ready to put him ahead of those guys yet.    But, I do recognize that Tony’s list is a power ranking, not necessarily a top prospect list.   

Yes, that's true, but saying this, Knight's velocity and assortment of pitches along with his rediscovered command really does make him very interesting. I just like how the stuff plays and honestly, I almost jumped him over Bradish who I'm less bullish on as a starter.

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Another really good Melewski article. 

Listening to his quotes, 2019 was a classic situation how a season can unravel on guys. He basically admitted it snowballed on him and is exactly why you have to be careful with what level guys are at. Not saying he was promoted too fast last year because at his age and success in Delmarva, he earned that promotion, but it goes to show how human these guys are and how failure can really snowball on guys.

Watching Knight this year compared to 2019 is like a whole different gut. He's a legitimate starting pitching prospect again.

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37 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, Lowther was plenty good in 2019 and they were using the data then.  I think the year off may have hurt him, plus the O’s have not given him regular innings this year.  

In general, it seems a lot of our pitchers who had success in AA are finding the transition to AAA to be difficult:

Lowther 2.55 ERA in AA, 6.93 in AAA

Wells 2.95/4.19

Smith 2.35/5.00

Bradish 0.00/6.35

Not sure if it’s the adjustment to the major league ball, or just the increased level of competition.


 

I can tell you from watching their appearances that it's somewhat ball related with Bradish. Bradish' nasty curveball hasn't had as good a break at times and his fastball command has been pretty awful at AAA. 

Smith really has only had a few bad starts, but he's mostly a slider guy and I really think he's ultimately going to end up in relief like a Paul Fry type. The slider has been a little less easier for him to command in AAA, which could be ball related.

Wells really struggled early on and you wonder how much was it the ball, the injury he was coming off again (oblique) or the competition. After his first four starts, Wells has pitched to a 1.85 ERA with a 30 to 6 K to walk ratio in his last 34 innings and that includes his 4.2 major league innings in which he gave up two earned runs. 

Lowther I have concerns with the major league ball but his curveball and slider both don't look as sharp and his changeup has been quite terrible. I don't want to make a full opinion though until he gets another ten AAA starts under his belt and see if he can make the adjustments. 

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