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Jordan Westburg 2021

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1 hour ago, jabba72 said:

Richie Martin posted an .807 OPS in AA at 23. I dont think anything else needs to be said. Grenier shouldn't be sharing time or blocking SS. 

What another player did at a similar level doesn’t mean much to me.   Players have good and bad years.   That was Richie’s best year by far.   I think Grenier is the better hitter, not that that’s saying much.   

I think the input I’m missing here is exactly how good Grenier’s defense is.   “Best in the organization” isn’t necessarily that high a compliment.  If he’d be above average defensively for a major league starting SS, you can tolerate some degree of subpar offense.

 

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31 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What another player did at a similar level doesn’t mean much to me.   Players have good and bad years.   That was Richie’s best year by far.   I think Grenier is the better hitter, not that that’s saying much.   

I think the input I’m missing here is exactly how good Grenier’s defense is.   “Best in the organization” isn’t necessarily that high a compliment.  If he’d be above average defensively for a major league starting SS, you can tolerate some degree of subpar offense.

 

I dont know but if Grenier is the premium play at SS because Grenier's glove is more solid than all the players below him, than they need to do something else at SS. Like sign one of the free agents this offseason. I guess im not a believer in his bat. 

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Martin hasn't hit well in AAA or the majors but I don't get how anyone can say Grenier is the better offensive player.   He still strikes out a ton and the odds of that getting better at AAA or the majors is small.   He definitely put himself back on the radar this year but his offense is still a huge question.   I'm not sure how they compare defensively but my gut feeling is that Grenier might have a slight edge.   

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

What another player did at a similar level doesn’t mean much to me.   Players have good and bad years.   That was Richie’s best year by far.   I think Grenier is the better hitter, not that that’s saying much.   

I think the input I’m missing here is exactly how good Grenier’s defense is.   “Best in the organization” isn’t necessarily that high a compliment.  If he’d be above average defensively for a major league starting SS, you can tolerate some degree of subpar offense.

 

One indication that the O's have some positive belief in Grenier's bat is that he's been batting 3rd in Bowie's lineup - which is a pretty decent lineup.  But his hitting has been gradually declining for a while now.  At some point this season - if he keeps declining, I expect he'll be far less a priority for them.   

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4 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

One indication that the O's have some positive belief in Grenier's bat is that he's been batting 3rd in Bowie's lineup - which is a pretty decent lineup.  But his hitting has been gradually declining for a while now.  At some point this season - if he keeps declining, I expect he'll be far less a priority for them.   

So he's the fifth best hitter on the team?

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Just now, Ruzious said:

I'm guessing someone thinks that's clever or insightful, but I don't get it.  

Fixed that for you!

I believe there have been some statistical analyses saying that the 5th best hitter should bat 3rd.   

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1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Fixed that for you!

I believe there have been some statistical analyses saying that the 5th best hitter should bat 3rd.   

Thank you.  I hadn't read it, so that flew over my head

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3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

In an optimized lineup your third place hitter should be your fifth best hitter.

That seems nonsensical, but I won't argue.  

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4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Fixed that for you!

I believe there have been some statistical analyses saying that the 5th best hitter should bat 3rd.   

I figured it was common knowledge.

 

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3 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

That seems nonsensical, but I won't argue.  

It's math.

The third place hitter comes too bat too often with two outs and no one on.  The fourth and fifth place hitters are more likely to have high leverage at bats.  (That's the quick and dirty version)

Folks way smarter than I have ran all the numbers.

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1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I figured it was common knowledge.

 

I’ve never read any of those analyses, but I’m aware they exist.   I’m also aware that lineup sequence makes very little difference in general.   

Is there any team that actually intentionally bats their fifth best hitter third?   

It seems to me that the optimal order might vary depending on the characteristics of the hitters.  For example, you have two hitters with the exact same wOBA, but one has a higher OBP and the other a higher SLG.  In theory they are equally good hitters, but there may be some advantage in putting the higher OBP guy first.   

Now take a lineup with 9 guys with different sets of characteristics.   That makes it even more complicated.   


 

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1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

It's math.

The third place hitter comes too bat too often with two outs and no one on.  The fourth and fifth place hitters are more likely to have high leverage at bats.  (That's the quick and dirty version)

Folks way smarter than I have ran all the numbers.

I said I wouldn't argue but I lied.  The 5th place batter won't get up as much as the 3rd place batter, and the obvious thing a team should do is get quality 1st and 2nd hitters to make it even more obvious that the 3rd place hitter is considerably more important than the 5th hitter. 

Douglas Adams had a great quote that doesn't quite fit but is good enough:  "A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools." 

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