So, he doesn’t miss bats, he gives up homers, HR rate is high, his FIP and xFIP were in line with his ERA and he was overpaid. His walk rate is good though.
He isn’t good.
Now, all of that being said, in the last 2 full ML seasons, he has 58 starts. He threw 180 Innings in 2021. As was mentioned, he pitched 6 innings or more 18 times and only went less than 5 IP in 7 of his starts.
In 21 of his starts, he gave up 3 runs or less. Overall, he had 8 starts of 5 runs or more allowed. Btw, 2 of these games he came in as a reliever but pitched 6 and 7 innings, so I did include that in these “starter” Numbers”.
Essentially, you have a guy who kept his team in the game for 75% of his appearances. That does have value on a team that has an awful staff and needs innings out of it.
Is it an overpay? Yes? Does the money matter? No. If they had paid him what he’s worth, saying 3-4M, would that make anyone feel better? Like, who cares about The extra few million?
For 7 million bucks, I will take the same numbers he put up in 2021.
It’s not really a good signing but it’s they did spend some money and they did address the idea that they need innings out of their starter. That’s about as much as we can hope for.
Not that this move would excite anyone other than Lyles and his family/friends they have to spend some money.
I’m not saying spending $6M this year with a $1M buyout next year will flip the narrative about the Orioles but from an optics view alone they have to do something.
I'd guess that they will still sign someone like Brault in addition to the Lyle's signing.
I don't care for the signing, but if he can pitch to a shade over 5 ERA and 170-180 innings he'd be an ace in Baltimore.