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Cedric Mullins as a CF

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9 hours ago, orioles22 said:

It seems like fans get in a big hurry to trade people. Do something for the long-suffering fans and lock in some young players so we know who will be around after the rebuild, assuming the rebuild does eventually end.

 

 

 

I don’t see how extending him does anything for the fans.  Again, he isn’t even arb eligible until 2023.  You have him through 2025 at this point.

If this was 2019 and he was doing this, I would definitely be more interested in eating up some of his FA seasons. At that point, he was younger and coming off a relatively successful MiL career, which makes you think sustainment is possible.

However, 2019 And 2020 did happen and he did get older, so at this point, I wouldn’t be in as a big hurry to extend him and paying him into his 30s.  Quite frankly, I don’t know if I will ever want to pay him into his 30s, as that’s not something I like to do with most players anyway.  He will be 30 for his final arbitration season here in Baltimore.  He will turn 31 on Oct of that season.  So, every free agency year he will have will be in his 30s.  How much do we want to pay for that?  He does a lot of good things with his legs.  His defense, SBs, bunt hits, etc…his speed will dissipate some, as it always does for people as they age and the question of how that will effect his overall game is something to consider as well.

 

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Cedric is 26.   He is not a FA until after the 2025 season when he will be 30.   An extension is a decision for 2024.  30 year old legs are often not like 26 year old legs.

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30 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Cedric is 26.   He is not a FA until after the 2025 season when he will be 30.   An extension is a decision for 2024.  30 year old legs are often not like 26 year old legs.

Very good point.  When speed is an important part of a player’s game, the team needs to see how it holds up.   Not all players slow at the same rate.   Look at Brady vs. Adam.   

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1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Very good point.  When speed is an important part of a player’s game, the team needs to see how it holds up.   Not all players slow at the same rate.   Look at Brady vs. Adam.   

Adam was a bigger guy.  I'd seen him in person up close a few times.  I was always surprised that he was bigger than he looked on TV, bigger than I thought he'd be.

Brady, IIRC, wasn't exactly a big guy.  Sure, he had some muscle and he was ripped, but IMO people confuse being ripped with being hyooooge. Brady's frame wasn't huge, Jones's was bigger.  Thus, in my two player comparison, the obvious conclusion is that guys with bigger frames and more mass lose their speed more as they age.  It's a very scientific study.

Also, Jones gained weight over the years, his body transformed from the time he was a rookie to the time he was losing his range in CF. 

Cedric is a smaller, lean and lithe guy.  I wouldn't be surprised if he held onto his speed longer.  

56 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Quite frankly, I don’t know if I will ever want to pay him into his 30s, as that’s not something I like to do with most players anyway.  

 

Loollllzzzz SG would have traded Frank Robinson, "An old 30," for Milt Pappas.

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16 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Adam was a bigger guy.  I'd seen him in person up close a few times.  I was always surprised that he was bigger than he looked on TV, bigger than I thought he'd be.

Brady, IIRC, wasn't exactly a big guy.  Sure, he had some muscle and he was ripped, but IMO people confuse being ripped with being hyooooge. Brady's frame wasn't huge, Jones's was bigger.  Thus, in my two player comparison, the obvious conclusion is that guys with bigger frames and more mass lose their speed more as they age.  It's a very scientific study.

Also, Jones gained weight over the years, his body transformed from the time he was a rookie to the time he was losing his range in CF. 

Cedric is a smaller, lean and lithe guy.  I wouldn't be surprised if he held onto his speed longer.  

Loollllzzzz SG would have traded Frank Robinson, "An old 30," for Milt Pappas.

Well actually he wasn’t an old 30, as he had a 925 OPs heading into that season.  That was just a dumb evaluation.

And I would bet on being Right far more than being wrong at trading guys in their 30s vs keeping them.

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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Well actually he wasn’t an old 30, as he had a 925 OPs heading into that season.  That was just a dumb evaluation.

And I would bet on being Right far more than being wrong at trading guys in their 30s vs keeping them.

Wrong, OPS didn't exist back then.

That said, I don't necessarily disagree with you.  

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3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well just because OPS is on his baseball reference page doesn't mean it existed back then, SG.  Sheesh.

But alright, fine.  Allow me to use your logic against you.

From '56- '62, Robinson averaged a .961 OPS and wouldn't hit that mark in '63-'65.  Those three years included a career low .821.  So yeah, the Reds GM thought he was an "old 30."  

Now if we were evaluating a 30 year old player today to sign in free agency or swing a trade for... tell me you wouldn't be screaming from the rooftops that you'd be against acquiring that player when he hadn't reached his career OPS in the previous three years.  

I do believe this is the part where you'd say "The Reds GM made the correct move, even if it turned out to be a bad one," and that you'd "bet more on being right vs wrong at trading guys in their 30s". 

Right?

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1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

Well just because OPS is on his baseball reference page doesn't mean it existed back then, SG.  Sheesh.

But alright, fine.  Allow me to use your logic against you.

From '56- '62, Robinson averaged a .961 OPS and wouldn't hit that mark in '63-'65.  Those three years included a career low .821.  So yeah, the Reds GM thought he was an "old 30."  

Now if we were evaluating a 30 year old player today to sign in free agency or swing a trade for... tell me you wouldn't be screaming from the rooftops that you'd be against acquiring that player when he hadn't reached his career OPS in the previous three years.  

I do believe this is the part where you'd say "The Reds GM made the correct move, even if it turned out to be a bad one," and that you'd "bet more on being right vs wrong at trading guys in their 30s". 

Right?

I get that it didn’t exist but the production itself still existed.  That’s the point you are missing.  
 

The 2 years prior to the trade, he was still an elite player.  The only thing that jumps out is in 1965, his Ks went up a lot.  Why?  Slower bat?  If so, maybe that’s why.

As for your last part, it depends on contract status.  It depends on what he’s owed, how long he’s signed for, body type, what his other skills are, etc…but yes, my normal way of doing of business would be to not have players signed to big, long term deals well into their 30s.  There will always be exceptions to any rule but that is absolutely the rule I would have and in most cases, I will be right.  Sometimes you miss, like with Nelson Cruz but I’m ok with that.  I’m ok with not being the team that hopes you sign the exception to a rule to a long term, expensive contract.  I’m good being the team that trades a player a year too early as opposed to a year too late.  I will win more often than not with that mindset and give me the greater odds everytime.

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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I look at that page and just marvel.   I remember Frank’s 1968 season, coming off a bad concussion that affected his vision, and that season looked like an embarrassment to 11-year old me.   Now you look at it in light of modern stats and he had an OPS+ of 153 that year.   That’s what constituted an off-year for Frank Robinson.   The guy was awesome.  

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I look at that page and just marvel.   I remember Frank’s 1968 season, coming off a bad concussion that affected his vision, and that season looked like an embarrassment to 11-year old me.   Now you look at it in light of modern stats and he had an OPS+ of 153 that year.   That’s what constituted an off-year for Frank Robinson.   The guy was awesome.  

Just for reference Eddie Murray averaged a 155 OPS+ from 1981 to 1985 during his peak with the Orioles. 

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1 minute ago, InsideCoroner said:

Mullins is currently 8th among all MLB players with 3.3 fWAR. What an exceptional start to the year.

Tatis is sitting 11th, for frame of reference. (Gausman is #12)

Tatis has also missed time due to injury so he isn't someone I would use as a point of comparison.

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When I look at Mullins' stats I'm struck by his extreme Home / Away splits:

H - .362. / 438 / .669 / 1.108
A - .284 / .351 / .418 / .769

Does it look like he has a different approach when playing at Camden Yards vs. on the road? If so, I haven't seen it. I know CY has the rep as a bandbox, but not that much of a bandbox. 

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38 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

When I look at Mullins' stats I'm struck by his extreme Home / Away splits:

H - .362. / 438 / .669 / 1.108
A - .284 / .351 / .418 / .769

Does it look like he has a different approach when playing at Camden Yards vs. on the road? If so, I haven't seen it. I know CY has the rep as a bandbox, but not that much of a bandbox. 

Hard to tell from a small sample size. The team as a whole has been terrible on the road. It is possible we have faced tougher pitchers.

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