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Frobby

The O’s at the 60-game mark, 2018 - 2021

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My expectation was that we’d fare better in the second half of the season as we figure out who among Kremer, Akin, Zimmerman, Lowther, Wells, etc can stick in the rotation, and other prospects emerge as candidates. I still think that’s the case, but I didn’t expect that road to be quite as bumpy as it’s been. 

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7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Since last season was exactly 60 games, and a lot of people drew conclusions from it that they might not normally draw from results through 60 games in a 162-game season, I thought it would be interesting to see where we were after 60 games each of the last 4 years.

2018: 19-41 (.317), 218 runs scored, .675 OPS, 310 runs allowed, 4.85 ERA.  League average: 4.53 runs/game, .734 OPS (full season).

2019: 19-41 (.317), 250 runs scored, .708 OPS, 341 runs allowed, 5.81 ERA.  League average: 4.88 runs/game, .762 OPS (full season).

2020: 25-35 (.417), 274 runs scored, .750 OPS, 294 runs allowed, 4.51 ERA.   League average: 4.58 runs/game, .733 OPS.

2021: 22-38 (.367), 250 runs scored, .714 OPS,  296 runs allowed, 4.81 ERA.   League average: 4.43 runs/game, .714 OPS.

I personally felt that last year’s performance was a little fluky-good, and that over 162 games the winning percentage would have fallen well below .367.    The team was playing poorly when the season ended, after a relatively good start.   

This year’s team, the 60-game performance looks about right to me.   We’re not as bad as the 14-game losing streak suggested, not as good as the more recent 5-1 stretch.   But overall we are on pace for 59 wins, slightly under what I would have guessed (I predicted 61-65).  I’m somewhat optimistic we can do a little better the rest of the way than we’ve done to date.   We are three games under our Pythagorean record, which interestingly, is 25-35, same as our actual record last year.   I still think we finish in the 61-65 win range.  
 

While that is true, let's also not forget the incredibly difficult schedule the Orioles played for those 60 games last year.   Most oft he teams on the schedule were in contention with a week left in the season, the only exceptions being Boston and Washington who accounted for 16 of the 60 games.   So yes, they probably wouldn't have played as well the remaining hypothetical 112 games.   But the opponents for those hypothetical games would have been MUCH weaker than what they saw in the first 60.   Those 112 hypothetical remaining games would have included just 9 each against the 4 ALE teams, no more vs the strong NLE teams we played last year, and plenty of games vs KC, Detroit, Seattle, Texas, etc.   So while we might not have played at the same level, we might still have maintained the same winning percentage just because of who we were facing.

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15 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

My expectation was that we’d fare better in the second half of the season as we figure out who among Kremer, Akin, Zimmerman, Lowther, Wells, etc can stick in the rotation, and other prospects emerge as candidates. I still think that’s the case, but I didn’t expect that road to be quite as bumpy as it’s been. 

That is exactly my thought, I think we are going to improve as we make personnel changes, however minor those individual changes are. 

Moving Mountcastle semi-permanently to first base/DH and getting rid of Ruiz Are two moves that should have meaningful results.


I was expecting the starting pitching to be better than it has been, but we are making changes. Lopez seems to be doing better. If he had been pulled a bit sooner in almost all of his starts, I think we would’ve garnered two or three additional wins.

As the season moves along, I think we will see other meaningful moves that raise our draft pick for next year.

I don’t recall what my vote was for final record, I think it was lower 70s, but I don’t see a need to change that at this time.

Promotions, baby!!

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7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

What a terrible organization this has been.

They should look at these records and be embarrassed.

And yet, you still care.

we all do.

go figure…

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24 minutes ago, SteveA said:

But the opponents for those hypothetical games would have been MUCH weaker than what they saw in the first 60.   Those 112 hypothetical remaining games would have included just 9 each against the 4 ALE teams, no more vs the strong NLE teams we played last year, and plenty of games vs KC, Detroit, Seattle, Texas, etc.   So while we might not have played at the same level, we might still have maintained the same winning percentage just because of who we were facing.

I forgot to mention exactly this. We have already played an extremely difficult schedule against meaningful contenders. We played the Mariners, the Rangers, and I don’t think we’ve played any other non-contenders, unless you include the Twins, who were expected by many to take the division. 
The schedule is going to get easier, so I think we will be able to do pretty well. I do not expect a single digit draft pick next year

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18 minutes ago, Philip said:

I forgot to mention exactly this. We have already played an extremely difficult schedule against meaningful contenders. We played the Mariners, the Rangers, and I don’t think we’ve played any other non-contenders, unless you include the Twins, who were expected by many to take the division. 
The schedule is going to get easier, so I think we will be able to do pretty well. I do not expect a single digit draft pick next year

Looks like we have the 7th toughest strength of schedule this year so far. 9 of the top 10 toughest schedules have been in the AL, including all AL East teams except Boston. 

Last year they have us ranked 16th in SOS but the #s are weird when you only play intra-division games, since East/Central/West were each forced to a .500 overall winning percentage. 

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Yet I feel optimistic in the direction this team is going.  A few changes of the current players with players in the farm system and this is a respectable team.  I use to look forward to December for trades, now I look forward to the draft and watching what is going on in the minors.  I still enjoy the draft but I could not say that I enjoyed the minors from 2000-2019.  I can confidently say this team is getting close and not "The Calvary" close, but pitching and key position players close.

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1 minute ago, sevastras said:

Yet I feel optimistic in the direction this team is going.  A few changes of the current players with players in the farm system and this is a respectable team.  I use to look forward to December for trades, now I look forward to the draft and watching what is going on in the minors.  I still enjoy the draft but I could not say that I enjoyed the minors from 2000-2019.  I can confidently say this team is getting close and not "The Calvary" close, but pitching and key position players close.

There are high quality prospects that are going to make noise in the next few years and that's a reason to be optimistic. And this year's draft and next year's draft should only add more players to the pool of talent through the end of this decade. 

With the last rebuild the Orioles were a 90+ loss team until they weren't in 2012. It would be no surprise if we see a similar jump this go around from bad team one year and playoffs in the next. Question is now, when is next?

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9 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

There are high quality prospects that are going to make noise in the next few years and that's a reason to be optimistic. And this year's draft and next year's draft should only add more players to the pool of talent through the end of this decade. 

With the last rebuild the Orioles were a 90+ loss team until they weren't in 2012. It would be no surprise if we see a similar jump this go around from bad team one year and playoffs in the next. Question is now, when is next?

2023

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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

What a terrible organization this has been.

They should look at these records and be embarrassed.

Truly one of those times....I think you are being sarcastic...and yet...I just don't know.

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45 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Why would that be sarcasm?  

Well, it most certainly has been a terrible organization and that has been true since Angelos fired his Manager of the year in 1997.  But the records of the ML franchise 2018-2021 don't really reflect that one way or the other.

You can disagree on the need for a total rebuild or the method even, but when the Org says we are going to acquire talent and we are not going to be focused on the ML record...you should not be surprised to see the numbers above.

Frobby's post shows us how far we have come.  In 2018 the roster was fully in competitive mode.   Bundy, Cashner, Cobb, Gausman, were in the rotation.  Machado, Schoop, Jones, Nunez were all still here.  And yes those guys are all gone.  But they were all there through 60 Games in 2018 as were Buck and Duquette.  

What has ensued is a total rebuild where everything has been turned over and the focus has totally been on acquiring young talent at the Minor League level.  And during that painful time, even during a pandemic...The Baltimore Orioles...with a rookie manager and a rookie GM and the Son's of the owner, have never been worse than the 2018 team was while it was fully intact.

Now, we can talk about how '19, '20 and '21 have sucked being one of the worst teams in baseball.  And nothing that has occurred during this time guarantees anything.  But surely you must think the Orioles are in a better spot today and have been better run as an organization since 2019.  47...That is how many games the 2018 team won.  While trying to win.

 

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