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Don't waste the Adley, Grayson and DL years.

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22 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Yes you were. You said that not even Keith Law ranked them dead last when he quite literally did. Regardless, when you just had the worst season in franchise history and are bereft of ML talent, if you're not even a top 25 system you are in horrible shape. That's obvious to anyone except you apparently. The farm system was bad relative to the league at that time. As obvious now as it was back then. 

No, that isn't what I said.  I said I didn't think they did, I couldn't find a non-paywall copy of his list.  I specifically mentioned him due to his habit of not strictly judging the O's on their actual talent and instead scoring them lower than their actual talent will indicate.

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5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

No, that isn't what I said.  I said I didn't think they did, I couldn't find a non-paywall copy of his list.  I specifically mentioned him due to his habit of not strictly judging the O's on their actual talent and instead scoring them lower than their actual talent will indicate.

It took me 10 seconds to find a non-paywalled source. I wouldn't call someone a revisionist without even trying to see if I was right. 

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I specifically mentioned him due to his habit of not strictly judging the O's on their actual talent and instead scoring them lower than their actual talent will indicate.

There's a shred of truth to this. However, it's fair to penalize an org for not having even one international prospect worth anything. You are cutting off 30% of the talent pool. It may not be extremely obvious at the time, but other teams who participate in that market will eventually have an advantage over you. 

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1 minute ago, LTO's said:

It took me 10 seconds to find a non-paywalled source. I wouldn't call someone a revisionist without even trying to see if I was right. 

There's a shred of truth to this. However, it's fair to penalize an org for not having even one international prospect worth anything. You are cutting off 30% of the talent pool. It may not be extremely obvious at the time, but other teams who participate in that market will eventually have an advantage over you. 

How is it fair to dock a STRENGTH RANKING?  These are the strongest farm systems right now.  How does it make sense to underrepresented the strength of a team's farm because of how the players were acquired? 

That makes no sense at all.  You could say The Orioles are unlikely to maintain this ranking due to their neglect of the international market, that's fine but to say oh they have the 10th best collection of talent but I don't agree with how they accumulated it so I'm going to put them at 15th?  How is that intellectually honest or fair?  It's about the quality of the players.

 

Also congratulations of your superior ability to use google.  I spent 10 seconds, got an ESPN link and gave up.

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5 hours ago, Ruzious said:

C'mon Drungo.  Do you seriously think the O's would have put him in AAA at 19 years old?   

If he had an .800+ OPS at every stop below that at ages 3, 4, 5 years younger than other prospects at that level? Sure.

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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Names:  Matz, Hand, Simien, Schoop, Wood, Musgrove..few names they could have considered that were moved.

Several teams were crying poor me, so take advantage of that.  The reds talked about moving guys.  Could you have gotten something done there?  Colorado traded Arenado And didn’t even get a ton back.  Why not be involved?  Or, look at other options from them.  Cubs were looking to move Bryant…what would it have taken?  Could you have had him for a few guys outside of your top 10?  No one was biting on him And his salary was high for this year.  
 

I mentioned Adames in the offseason. 

There are always targets out there.  There are always ways to improve if you want to.

Also, I wanted to trade guys like Santander this offseason.  We don’t know what was there but maybe they could have dealt him for ML help at other areas.  It’s doubtful Elias looked for ML help when he shopped Santander or anyone else. 
 

Also, do you have anyone that is valued highly but maybe you could part because of roster issues and just long term issues about the player?  Say a guy like Mountcastle.  Could he have been a central piece in a trade for a guy like German Marquez?  Who knows.  It’s possible but obviously we will never know.

Brian Anderson was another guy I wanted.  Would the Marlins have dealt him?   Could a deal have been made centered around him and Santander, who the Marlins reportedly were interested in?

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2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

That makes no sense at all.  You could say The Orioles are unlikely to maintain this ranking due to their neglect of the international market, that's fine but to say oh they have the 10th best collection of talent but I don't agree with how they accumulated it so I'm going to put them at 15th?  How is that intellectually honest or fair?  It's about the quality of the players.

First of all I don't think he thinks the Os have the 10th best collection of talent in the first place which is where I disagree with him. But his argument about docking them for not signing any good J2 guys makes total sense. Most of these high dollar value international prospects don't immediately show up highly on top 30s because of lack of in game looks, age etc. But eventually some of them inevitably do.  If other teams have those guys and the Orioles don't, you can't just ignore that. It would be intellectually dishonest to pretend that the Orioles weren't at a supreme disadvantage to teams like the Rays, Jays and Yankees year in and year out.

I mean, just the other day you were talking about how teams like the Rays and the Jays built a great farm system without tanking. It's because they have elite international scouting and development. Their top 30s are filled with high ceiling J2 guys. Same with the Yankees. I'd rather have those guys in my system than the low ceiling guys at the back end of our top 30. Again, this is 30% of the player pool. How can you totally neglect that area and think you can get ahead of teams? It's practically impossible. 

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21 minutes ago, LTO's said:

First of all I don't think he thinks the Os have the 10th best collection of talent in the first place which is where I disagree with him. But his argument about docking them for not signing any good J2 guys makes total sense. Most of these high dollar value international prospects don't immediately show up highly on top 30s because of lack of in game looks, age etc. But eventually some of them inevitably do.  If other teams have those guys and the Orioles don't, you can't just ignore that. It would be intellectually dishonest to pretend that the Orioles weren't at a supreme disadvantage to teams like the Rays, Jays and Yankees year in and year out.

I mean, just the other day you were talking about how teams like the Rays and the Jays built a great farm system without tanking. It's because they have elite international scouting and development. Their top 30s are filled with high ceiling J2 guys. Same with the Yankees. I'd rather have those guys in my system than the low ceiling guys at the back end of our top 30. Again, this is 30% of the player pool. How can you totally neglect that area and think you can get ahead of teams? It's practically impossible. 

Someone should have asked Peter Angelos that question 20 years ago,

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2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

If he had an .800+ OPS at every stop below that at ages 3, 4, 5 years younger than other prospects at that level? Sure.

They have the 2nd highest rated prospect in baseball stuck in AA even though he's already 23 and dominating both offensively and defensively at the hardest defensive position in baseball - even though they know he's easily the best catcher - both defensively and offensively - in the Baltimore organization.  And no matter what he does... he's not going to play in Baltimore this year. 

They have a 19 year old SS in low A OPSing 1.000 even though they said he stood out like a man among boys last year. - and he is a man among boys considering nobody else on the roster is even OPSing .800.        

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1 hour ago, LTO's said:

First of all I don't think he thinks the Os have the 10th best collection of talent in the first place which is where I disagree with him. But his argument about docking them for not signing any good J2 guys makes total sense. Most of these high dollar value international prospects don't immediately show up highly on top 30s because of lack of in game looks, age etc. But eventually some of them inevitably do.  If other teams have those guys and the Orioles don't, you can't just ignore that. It would be intellectually dishonest to pretend that the Orioles weren't at a supreme disadvantage to teams like the Rays, Jays and Yankees year in and year out.

I mean, just the other day you were talking about how teams like the Rays and the Jays built a great farm system without tanking. It's because they have elite international scouting and development. Their top 30s are filled with high ceiling J2 guys. Same with the Yankees. I'd rather have those guys in my system than the low ceiling guys at the back end of our top 30. Again, this is 30% of the player pool. How can you totally neglect that area and think you can get ahead of teams? It's practically impossible. 

But if all you are looking at is how strong a farm team's talent is at a moment in time how the players were acquired is irrelevant.

Might it be harder to maintain a high ranking?  Sure, but it's irrelevant to the question at hand.

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If you think Law’s ranking is accurate and that the Os system is the middle to back end of the league, that tells me that you don’t value the depth of the system.  
 

If that’s the case than why do you care about trading those players for established ML talent?

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9 hours ago, Ruzious said:

They have the 2nd highest rated prospect in baseball stuck in AA even though he's already 23 and dominating both offensively and defensively at the hardest defensive position in baseball - even though they know he's easily the best catcher - both defensively and offensively - in the Baltimore organization.  And no matter what he does... he's not going to play in Baltimore this year.

I get pissed off just thinking about it.

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12 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

But if all you are looking at is how strong a farm team's talent is at a moment in time how the players were acquired is irrelevant.

Might it be harder to maintain a high ranking?  Sure, but it's irrelevant to the question at hand.

But it’s not irrelevant. Just because those kids haven’t made it stateside yet doesn’t mean they aren’t in the system. At the moment in time that Keith Law ranked the Os dead last they didn’t have a single international prospect of note. Other teams did, though they weren’t individually assigned high FV grades due to risk. Many of those teenagers at the time are now stateside and predictably on teams’ top 30s. It was obvious at the time that that was going to happen eventually. I just don’t understand why he would ignore that.

You aren’t giving an entirely accurate picture of a team’s farm system if you ignore the J2 guys. Other pubs may evaluate a farm system’s total value in a different way. That’s fine. The truth is probably somewhere in between a #5 and #18 ranking. It should be noted that Law was always higher on guys like Tatis and Acuña and now they are two of the best players on the planet. He’s always put more stock into international scouting than other publications. That’s part of why the Os are always lower on his lists.

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4 minutes ago, LTO's said:

But it’s not irrelevant. Just because those kids haven’t made it stateside yet doesn’t mean they aren’t in the system. At the moment in time that Keith Law ranked the Os dead last they didn’t have a single international prospect of note. Other teams did, though they weren’t individually assigned high FV grades due to risk. Many of those teenagers at the time are now stateside and predictably on teams’ top 30s. It was obvious at the time that that was going to happen eventually. I just don’t understand why he would ignore that.

You aren’t giving an entirely accurate picture of a team’s farm system if you ignore the J2 guys. Other pubs may evaluate a farm system’s total value in a different way. That’s fine. The truth is probably somewhere in between a #5 and #18 ranking. It should be noted that Law was always higher on guys like Tatis and Acuña and now they are two of the best players on the planet. He’s always put more stock into international scouting than other publications. That’s part of why the Os are always lower on his lists.

If they are in the system they are being counted as part of the system that is being graded.

That isn't what he is doing.  He's docking the team's rating based off of his feeling on how they conduct business in the International market. 

If the O's can do it the hard way and get a top 10 farm team while ignoring an avenue of talent acquisition that should be reflected in the rankings.

If a team signed free agents every year and forfeited draft picks would you dock their ranking? 

The talent is what the talent is.

 

 

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5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

If you think Law’s ranking is accurate and that the Os system is the middle to back end of the league, that tells me that you don’t value the depth of the system.  
 

If that’s the case than why do you care about trading those players for established ML talent?

What established ML talent are the Os going to get for someone like Ryan McKenna, Zach Lowther or Garrett Stallings? The Adames return was an established ML reliever and a reliever close to the majors. Do the Os have that? Would Tampa even trade with us? Who do you think we could’ve included in a package to make that deal stronger than MIL’s? And would it even be worth it? TB is famously brilliant in selling high. Look at Snell. Are you going to give up top 10 prospects to pay Arenado hundreds of millions of dollars to play on a non competitive team? Were any of the FAs you mentioned ever going to sign with the Orioles? Probably not unless they overpaid. Why would they do that? Every one of them signed with a perceived contender. These players have agency. The orioles could put out a competitive offer for any of those guys but they probably wouldn’t want to play here. Especially pitchers. Could you blame them? Why would Alex Wood sign with a team with a horrible defense in the AL East over SF?
 

KC traded prospects for Benintendi and signed Carlos Santana amongst other moves to become competitive. They have a worse run differential this year than they did last year and have no shot at even the second wild card. There are risks to these moves. I would’ve liked them to sign someone like Schwarber but I’m well aware that if he had a better option, he’s going to choose that. I’m not going to get angry about the direction of the team until these prospects are all on the big league club. Then we will see how they supplement that talent.

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10 minutes ago, LTO's said:

What established ML talent are the Os going to get for someone like Ryan McKenna, Zach Lowther or Garrett Stallings? The Adames return was an established ML reliever and a reliever close to the majors. Do the Os have that? Would Tampa even trade with us? Who do you think we could’ve included in a package to make that deal stronger than MIL’s? And would it even be worth it? TB is famously brilliant in selling high. Look at Snell. Are you going to give up top 10 prospects to pay Arenado hundreds of millions of dollars to play on a non competitive team? Were any of the FAs you mentioned ever going to sign with the Orioles? Probably not unless they overpaid. Why would they do that? Every one of them signed with a perceived contender. These players have agency. The orioles could put out a competitive offer for any of those guys but they probably wouldn’t want to play here. Especially pitchers. Could you blame them? Why would Alex Wood sign with a team with a horrible defense in the AL East over SF?
 

KC traded prospects for Benintendi and signed Carlos Santana amongst other moves to become competitive. They have a worse run differential this year than they did last year and have no shot at even the second wild card. There are risks to these moves. I would’ve liked them to sign someone like Schwarber but I’m well aware that if he had a better option, he’s going to choose that. I’m not going to get angry about the direction of the team until these prospects are all on the big league club. Then we will see how they supplement that talent.

First of all, you asked me to name names of players we could have acquired that would have made us a better team.  I did that.  
 

Secondly, yes I think you could have gotten established ML talent for guys outside our top 10 in an offseason where teams wanted to save as much money as possible.  The money saved was every bit as important as the return.

Yes, I would have given up a few of our top 10 prospects for Arenado if he is a guy you earmarked as a guy to go get.  In other words, what are your scouts saying about him long term?  How much concern do they have of a drop off, etc…?  This is the part we don’t know but he is obviously far better than what have now and will have over the next few years.

 

Would players have signed here?  I don’t know.  Again, you asked for names, which I gave to you.  Would the Os have to offer more than they got?  Probably.  Maybe some of those guys have a wife or girlfriend from the area…or maybe they love crabs.  Who the hell knows.  All I know is all of those guys were available this offseason, so it’s possible that the Os could have acquired them and I’m fairly certain they didn’t try to acquire them at all, which is my entire point. If you made the effort to improve the team and no one says yes, so be it.

The lack of effort bothers me though.  The throwing up of the hands and saying, we aren’t focused on winning this year bothers me.  That is my issue.  You are ok with that, that’s fine.  Good for you.  Im not.  

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