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Rays are calling up MLB’s #1 prospect(Wander Franco). Will MLB’s #2 prospect(Adley) be next?

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10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

From which perspective - performance or financial?   From a performance standpoint, I’d say clearly not a mistake.   From a financial perspective, probably not that wise.  (I’m not going to say “mistake” because they did it intentionally.)

I’m talking organizationally.  Did they make a mistake bringing him up?  You take into account all aspects.

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5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m talking organizationally.  Did they make a mistake bringing him up?  You take into account all aspects.

With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, I’d say no.    He was a great player from day one, it only took the Padres two years to make the playoffs, and he signed a long term deal.    I’d say it worked out well for the Padres.   

I want to make a couple of points about the idea of bringing Rutschman up soon.   I have very mixed feelings about it.   I don’t have the sense that he’d be a top tier major league catcher right away.   But, he probably could hold his own, and he’d almost certainly be an upgrade to what we have now.   And, I think getting a decent amount of major league experience this year would set him up to be a better major league player next year.  Enough to help drive the O’s to being competitive (.500+) next year?   Probably not.   
 

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13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m talking organizationally.  Did they make a mistake bringing him up?  You take into account all aspects.

I actually agree that if it will benefit the team next year to bring him up now, we should bring him up now. However, it is unwise to bring up one single person, however great, and add him to a team of replacement level players.

Mullins is great and reasonably healthy, several guys  are great or near-great and not reasonably healthy, and then we have a vast quantity of Warm bodies who cannot get out of each other’s way.

We added 19-year old Manny to a team that was already excellent and essentially complete, needing only an additional quality starter or two(which actually didn’t matter in 2012.) Can you imagine adding 19 year old Manny  this team? 

Unless we’re going to promote multiple people, I don’t see any benefit to promoting AR, either for the team or for him.

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3 minutes ago, Philip said:

I actually agree that if it will benefit the team next year to bring him up now, we should bring him up now. However, it is unwise to bring up one single person, however great, and add him to a team of replacement level players.

Mullins is great and reasonably healthy, several guys  are great or near-great and not reasonably healthy, and then we have a vast quantity of Warm bodies who cannot get out of each other’s way.

We added 19-year old Manny to a team that was already excellent and essentially complete, needing only an additional quality starter or two(which actually didn’t matter in 2012.) Can you imagine adding 19 year old Manny  this team? 

Unless we’re going to promote multiple people, I don’t see any benefit to promoting AR, either for the team or for him.

There is plenty of benefit for AR.  He learns, he is up here playing in the majors instead of the minors and gets to start to learn the pitchers up here.  It’s always a benefit for the player to be in the majors vs the minors.  He’s kind of the reason they are doing this.

And the team obviously benefits from having a far superior player to what they have now.

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4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There is plenty of benefit for AR.  He learns, he is up here playing in the majors instead of the minors and gets to start to learn the pitchers up here. [B] It’s always a benefit for the player to be in the majors vs the minors.[/B]  He’s kind of the reason they are doing this.

And the team obviously benefits from having a far superior player to what they have now.

I don’t think it’s always a benefit.   It depends how ready the player is to handle the jump.   I wouldn’t put someone in the pilot’s seat of a fighter jet who hadn’t mastered driving a car yet.   

How ready is Rutschman?    I’m not completely sure.   Probably ready enough to keep his head above water.   He might look like DJ Stewart with the bat if you brought him up now - which certainly isn’t horrible for a catcher.  
 

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1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think it’s always a benefit.   It depends how ready the player is to handle the jump.   I wouldn’t put someone in the pilot’s seat of a fighter jet who hadn’t mastered driving a car yet.   

How ready is Rutschman?    I’m not completely sure.   Probably ready enough to keep his head above water.   
 

He’s clearly ready enough to justify being a starting catcher in the majors.

I would be willing to bet that if you brought him soon, that he ends up a top 10 catcher in baseball by whatever overall metric you want to use.

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AR should have started the season in Baltimore.  He's 23.  People wanted to send Mountcastle down and now he's raking.  You can learn at the MLB level.  Get the garbage out and start playing the kids.  

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You know, I was just now finally wondering what the team would look like if we DID bring up 19-year-old Manny right now. The answer is, “oh my God it would be so much better.”

Glorious defense at third where we currently have calamity, consistent offense, Less stress on the left fielder, and probably better play from the other infielders because they don’t have to worry about the latest catastrophe over at third.

But AR isn’t as ready as Manny was, and although catcher is extremely important, I’m not sure a great catcher-and it remains to be seen whether AR would be as polished at the start as Manny was- would have as much impact as a generational third baseman did.

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7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s clearly ready enough to justify being a starting catcher in the majors.

I would be willing to bet that if you brought him soon, that he ends up a top 10 catcher in baseball by whatever overall metric you want to use.

I’m not as confident of this as you.   Even though his MiL OPS is good, I still have the sense that he’s not hitting as well as I’d like.   I am not saying you’re wrong, just that I’m not so sure yet.   

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3 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

The Orioles drew 42,704 in Matt Wieters' first game in a season where they averaged under 24,000. It was their 6th most attended game of the season. The day before Wieters' debut, the attendance was 11,937. 

Matt Wieters' debut sold tickets, and there was a tail beyond that first game although how much of a tail is difficult to measure.

Adley would sell tickets too.

I remember it well. Perhaps a small bump when he debuts, but I can't envision any scenario where the Orioles draw anywhere close to 40k until they start winning again. A lot has changed since 2009.

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1 hour ago, Philip said:

1) none. The players get their salaries.

2) none. The players have nothing to do with expansion

3) if by streaming you mean watching GM on mobile devices I’m sure that will be addressed but the answer is none. The players get their salaries.

4) that’s an interesting question but the MLBPA doesn’t give a damn about minor leaguers because they aren’t part of the MLB CBA.

5) see 1) above.

 

Here are the points Tony Clark recently outlined

1. Universal  DH

2. Expanded Playoffs

3. A systemic change to the way players are paid and revenue sharing is set up

4, Address tanking

5. Change the way younger players are compensated

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2021/03/25/tony-clark-mlbpa-labor-negotiations-start/

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Just now, fansince1988 said:

I remember it well. Perhaps a small bump when he debuts, but I can't envision any scenario where the Orioles draw anywhere close to 40k until they start winning again. A lot has changed since 2009.

Only the Yankees, Cardinals and Dodgers averaged 40K+ in 2019, but the 2017 O's drew 40,000+ 7 times and they weren't winning that season. Hell, the 2018 O's drew 36,000+ four times.

The Orioles still drew 44,000+ on Opening Day of 2019, I think if Adley debuts on a Friday night next May like Wieters and it is announced a day or so in advance they could get pretty close to 40K. Those fans didn't all drop dead in the last 5 years.

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https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26794343/passan-how-wander-franco-became-mlb-next-miss-kid

ESPN re-listed this fine Jeff Passan piece from two years ago with Wander arriving tomorrow.

I had forgotten/never knew he was on the spending limits border, or probably would have been a Yankee.

interesting tidbits on 2018 minors population being over half non-US (very few Orioles then, natch), and only three 2019 first rounders from draft being younger than Wander.   Gunnar was not a first rounder at 2-42, but is one of the Class of 2019 high schoolers slightly younger than Franco.

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1 minute ago, MurphDogg said:

Only the Yankees, Cardinals and Dodgers averaged 40K+ in 2019, but the 2017 O's drew 40,000+ 7 times and they weren't winning that season. Hell, the 2018 O's drew 36,000+ four times.

The Orioles still drew 44,000+ on Opening Day of 2019, I think if Adley debuts on a Friday night next May like Wieters and it is announced a day or so in advance they could get pretty close to 40K. Those fans didn't all drop dead in the last 5 years.

Given the age of the average baseball fan, quite a few of them have probably dropped dead in the last 5 years.  

Just between 2017 and 2019, O’s attendance dropped by more than 700,000 fans.   The last two years obviously aren’t a fair barometer of attendance, but the O’s are going to be rebuilding a season ticket base from virtually nothing, coming off a fourth straight terrible season.    I don’t see them drawing anything near 40,000 to a game next year other than maybe opening day.  
 


 

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10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Given the age of the average baseball fan, quite a few of them have probably dropped dead in the last 5 years.  

Just between 2017 and 2019, O’s attendance dropped by more than 700,000 fans.   The last two years obviously aren’t a fair barometer of attendance, but the O’s are going to be rebuilding a season ticket base from virtually nothing, coming off a fourth straight terrible season.    I don’t see them drawing anything near 40,000 to a game next year other than maybe opening day.  

I'm not sure what things will look like in 2022 if COVID is totally behind us, but a lot of money that is normally spent on entertainment was not spent these last two years. Whether all of that money is ultimately never spent or whether there may be a bump where discretionary spending increases post-COVID, I can't say for sure.

That is a great point about rebuilding the season ticket base, will be something to keep an eye on. I don't think the entire Baltimore metro area will forget how to go to an O's game though.

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