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I think Mullins in the all Star game is pretty likely

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1 minute ago, deward said:

That would suggest that Duquette waited too long, no? I'm open to the possibility that the deal he got was the best available, but that's still a pretty disappointing return. Wasn't there legit concern at the time that Diaz would turn out not to have enough power for a corner OF spot?

Well first of all, waiting too long was likely not DDs call..that was Buck and Peter screwing us over.

And whether or not they waited too long is irrelevant to the deal itself.  The deal itself is what was on the table, so to say it’s a bad deal means you think/know they had a better offer at the deadline or that you think they should age taken the draft pick.

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4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well first of all, waiting too long was likely not DDs call..that was Buck and Peter screwing us over.

And whether or not they waited too long is irrelevant to the deal itself.  The deal itself is what was on the table, so to say it’s a bad deal means you think/know they had a better offer at the deadline or that you think they should age taken the draft pick.

At the end of the day, DD got what he could for a guy who was a three month rental. If Kremer ends up a back of the rotation guy and Diaz can become of something of value, that's not the worse thing in the world. It would be a better return had Elias not lost Pop for no reason.

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10 minutes ago, deward said:

That would suggest that Duquette waited too long, no? I'm open to the possibility that the deal he got was the best available, but that's still a pretty disappointing return. Wasn't there legit concern at the time that Diaz would turn out not to have enough power for a corner OF spot?

Maybe?

I'm not as eager to blame Buck and Peter for Manny as I am for Davis.

I certainly think the offseason was the time to trade him since, at the very least, the team picking him up would get a draft pick for him.

As for Diaz, the Markakis comp I saw would have played.

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7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well first of all, waiting too long was likely not DDs call..that was Buck and Peter screwing us over.

And whether or not they waited too long is irrelevant to the deal itself.  The deal itself is what was on the table, so to say it’s a bad deal means you think/know they had a better offer at the deadline or that you think they should age taken the draft pick.

Philosophically, if you're forced to accept poor value for your asset, then the chain of events that got you to that point has to be considered in the overall evaluation of the deal (IMO). If you want to shift the blame to other players in the org rather than DD, that's fine, but it doesn't change that they bungled the opportunity to trade a franchise player for fair value. To bring this back around to Mullins, I'd be particularly disappointed if they traded him for a similar package any time soon, as none of the duress of the Manny situation applies here. 

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1 hour ago, Yardball85 said:

Now that we see how the Machado return panned out, sure.  

But as SG said, Diaz was a top 50 guy, and you are trying to capitalize on two great months from Mullins.  

Mullins is worth a ton. And that is what I would say in trade talks.
The opposition would reply, “well he’s only had two good months so we’re only going to give you XYNZ.“

And I would say to them, “Hang on a second, Sport. You’re here because of that two months, and you’re here because, like us, you think it’s real. You are here because you know he’s valuable, and you are here because you are hoping that we’re going to respond positively to your small sample size hogwash.
We are not Dan Duquette.
We want this, that, and the other thing, or you may leave, and we will not validate your parking.”

Mike knows a lot more than I do but that’s how the scenario would play out.

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Just now, Philip said:

Mullins is worth a ton. And that is what I would say in trade talks.
The opposition would reply, “well he’s only had two good months so we’re only going to give you XYNZ.“

And I would say to them, “Hang on a second, Sport. You’re here because of that two months, and you’re here because, like us, you think it’s real. You are here because you know he’s valuable, and you are here because you are hoping that we’re going to respond positively to your small sample size hogwash.
We are not Dan Duquette.
We want this, that, and the other thing, or you may leave, and we will not validate your parking.”

Mike knows a lot more than I do but that’s how the scenario would play out.

You think going into the discussion calling your opposite number "Sport" is a good idea?  Elias is 38, he's not a Boomer, he's going to treat his opposite number with respect not condescension.

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15 minutes ago, deward said:

Philosophically, if you're forced to accept poor value for your asset, then the chain of events that got you to that point has to be considered in the overall evaluation of the deal (IMO). If you want to shift the blame to other players in the org rather than DD, that's fine, but it doesn't change that they bungled the opportunity to trade a franchise player for fair value. To bring this back around to Mullins, I'd be particularly disappointed if they traded him for a similar package any time soon, as none of the duress of the Manny situation applies here. 

Sure but that really is irrelevant.  They didn’t and weren’t going to trade him earlier.  You can evaluate the entire process, I agree.  But when evaluating the trade itself, that’s a separate evaluation.

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21 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I love it when people say Mullins IS worth a ton.  We have no idea what his worth is.  His worth is what someone will pay

That's not entirely true, the team should know exactly what he's worth to THEM. His value to other orgs is an open question of course.

(Edited - my original second sentence felt too pedantic)

Edited by deward
Second sentence felt too pedantic

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1 hour ago, wildcard said:

 

Here is what the O's traded Manny for at the time of the trade.

Dodgers' farm system was ranked 10th in 2018.

Diaz, 21,   MLB Pipeline 84th prospect, Dodgers 4th prospect.

Kremer, 22, Not ranked by MLB Pipeline, Dodgers 27th prospect, 14th round pick 2016

Bannon, 22,  Not ranked by MLB Pipeline, Dodgers  28th Prospect, 8th round pick 2017

Pop, 21, Not ranked by MLB Pipeline,  Not ranked by Dodgers, 7th round pick 2017

Valera, 26, on the 40 man roster, cup of coffee with the Cards and Dodgers

https://www.mlb.com/news/manny-machado-traded-to-dodgers-c286340444

 

Would you trade Mullins for this level of prospects today?

 

Not sure where you are getting your rankings, but per BB-ref, Diaz’s rankings following the 2018 season were:

BA - 37

MLB.com - 64

BP - 44

I’d say Diaz was regarded slightly higher than that in July 2018 — he had a mediocre month at Bowie after the trade that knocked his status down a bit.  

Also, Kremer did enough in 2018 that Tony ranked him our no. 4 prospect after the season.    I don’t know who was ranking him the Dodgers’ 27th best prospect,  but he was more highly regarded than that at the time of the trade IMO.
 

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6 minutes ago, deward said:

That's not entirely true, the team should know exactly what he's worth to THEM. Then it just becomes a question of if you get an offer that exceeds that value.

But the team can’t really know what he’s worth to them yet.

While I agree in principle with what you are saying, Mullins start is so completely out of nowhere that we just don’t know what we have yet.  
 

I don’t think it’s accurate to say he is worth a ton or that the team shouldn’t consider trading him or that we should just accept anY fair offer because he’s destined for a major decline.  We just don’t know yet what we have or how valuable he is.

They absolutely should be shopping him to see because, why not?  

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6 minutes ago, deward said:

That's not entirely true, the team should know exactly what he's worth to THEM. Then it just becomes a question of if you get an offer that exceeds that value.

304 PAs is still a small sample size. He's had 418 PAs prior to 2021 where he didn't look very good. I'm happy for Cedric, but its difficult to assess worth when he isn't a proven, stable commodity.

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4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But the team can’t really know what he’s worth to them yet.

While I agree in principle with what you are saying, Mullins start is so completely out of nowhere that we just don’t know what we have yet.  
 

I don’t think it’s accurate to say he is worth a ton or that the team shouldn’t consider trading him or that we should just accept anY fair offer because he’s destined for a major decline.  We just don’t know yet what we have or how valuable he is.

They absolutely should be shopping him to see because, why not?  

I would hope that the team's talent evaluators have SOME idea of whether or not they should expect this to continue, and aren't just taking it day by day. Not that their evaluation can't be revised over time, but surely this is a question they've put some thought into. 

As far as shopping him, sure, they're in the middle of a painfully long rebuild, anyone should be shopped in the interest of ultimately putting a competitive team on the field.

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34 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You think going into the discussion calling your opposite number "Sport" is a good idea?  Elias is 38, he's not a Boomer, he's going to treat his opposite number with respect not condescension.

The other GM would say "Shirly you didn't call me Sport.  We'll give you whatever you want for Mullins.  Well, we would have if you hadn't call me Sport."     

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1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Machado wasn't cheap.

He was a rental.

You can't flip a 3 month rental into a first round pick like you could in the old days.  Very few players bring back a big return for a couple of months of service time.  There was a limited market for Machado.

I don't see why not because a first round pick is what you get when he signs with another team after giving him a QO. 

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