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I think Mullins in the all Star game is pretty likely

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1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

He's 40th in all time rWAR through age 28….Roughly 90% of players on this pace end up in Cooperstown.  

I’m actually surprised it’s that high.   I would have guessed 60-70%.

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15 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m actually surprised it’s that high.   I would have guessed 60-70%.

19 non-active players with 40-45 rWAR through 28.  Only Cesar Cedeno and Sherry McGee are not in the Hall, and McGee could be with better luck (he's ahead of 10 current LF HOFers on the JAWS list).  Oh, also Joe Jackson who would be in Hall if not for throwing Series.

And full disclosure, McGraw is mostly in the Hall for his managerial skills, his playing career ended by 30 at least in part due to the after-effects of 19th century communicable diseases.

 

                                            
Rk                 Player WAR/pos From   To   Age
1             Duke Snider    44.9 1947 1955 20-28
2            Cesar Cedeno    44.2 1970 1979 19-28
3             John McGraw    44.0 1891 1901 18-28
4            Sherry Magee    43.4 1904 1913 19-28
5            George Davis    42.9 1890 1899 19-28
6             Ernie Banks    42.6 1953 1959 22-28
7          Ivan Rodriguez    42.4 1991 2000 19-28
8            Mike Schmidt    42.4 1972 1978 22-28
9             Joe Medwick    42.4 1932 1940 20-28
10   Shoeless Joe Jackson    42.2 1908 1916 20-28
11         Home Run Baker    42.2 1908 1914 22-28
12             Tim Raines    42.1 1979 1988 19-28
13         Reggie Jackson    41.7 1967 1974 21-28
14            Gary Carter    41.1 1974 1982 20-28
15         Richie Ashburn    41.0 1948 1955 21-28
16           Andre Dawson    40.9 1976 1983 21-28
17           Willie Wells    40.7 1924 1933 19-28
18           Lou Boudreau    40.5 1938 1946 20-28
19           Goose Goslin    40.2 1921 1929 20-28

 

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The other side of this story is that about half that list compiled a majority, sometimes a large majority, of their career value in their 20s.  Cedeno fell off a cliff, McGraw went from a .500 OBP to out of the league in a few years, Banks turned into an okay first baseman, Jackson sold out, Baker semi-retired due to personal reasons twice and didn't really have the same impact when he returned, Dawson won an undeserved MVP but his knees really slowed him down.  But they were good enough to get inducted.

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38 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The other other side of the story is that Manny passed Harold Baines and Bill Mazeroski in career value several years ago.

Just how many sides does this story have?

I’m guessing that Manny will build up more WAR in his 20’s than in his 30’s by a significant margin.  But chances are that he’ll have enough in total to be a likely Hall of Famer.  

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1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The other side of this story is that about half that list compiled a majority, sometimes a large majority, of their career value in their 20s.  Cedeno fell off a cliff, McGraw went from a .500 OBP to out of the league in a few years, Banks turned into an okay first baseman, Jackson sold out, Baker semi-retired due to personal reasons twice and didn't really have the same impact when he returned, Dawson won an undeserved MVP but his knees really slowed him down.  But they were good enough to get inducted.

You made me look this one up....his stats jump out, but 14th in WAR. Interesting. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_1987.shtml#NL_MVP_voting_link

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On 6/23/2021 at 8:36 AM, ChrisP said:

You made me look this one up....his stats jump out, but 14th in WAR. Interesting. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_1987.shtml#NL_MVP_voting_link

This was one of those story MVP awards, where Dawson signed some kind of blank check contract with the Cubs because of collusion.  And he'd already had an excellent career with no awards.  The writers decided that he was some kind of folk hero who led the league in homers and RBI in perhaps the best hitters' park in the National League in the best HR season of all time to that point.  He was 42nd in the NL in on-base percentage, and 6th in slugging.  Probably more ridiculous was that he got the GG as a 32-year-old RFer with bad knees.

Remember this was the same year Tony Gwynn hit .370 with a .447 OBP and an OPS 70 points higher and stole 56 bases.  Eric Davis had 37 homers and 50 steals and an OPS over 100 points higher.  Darryl Strawberry had an OPS 100 points higher.  Jack Clark had an OPS 150 points higher.  Mike Schmidt had like his 14th-best season and his OPS was 40 points higher than Dawson.

This is one of the more convoluted "valuable doesn't mean best player" arguments, especially since the Cubs went 76-85.  If you're going to use that silly argument then why not Jack Clark or Will Clark whose teams won? Jack's by only three games over the Mets and four over the Expos.

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