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wildcard

Sometimes its worth paying slot

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Elias paid Adley Rutchman slot.....8.1m.    It was worth it.  He is the face for the rebuild.   

Elias did not think Austin Martin was worth slot so he went underslot.

The 5th slot is worth 6.18m.  Mayer, Lawler and Leiter are all worth slot but they will be probably be gone by the time the O's pick.

Speculation has Elias going underslot again.  But will he?

I think Kumar Rocker is worth slot.   Going into the 2021 season Rocker was projected as the #1 pick.   There have been some questions about his velocity and Leiter has pass him in the rankings but Rocker is still a dominating force.

6'5", 245 lbs,   He has three plus pitches.  He has a 70 slider, a 65 fastball, a 60 curve and a 50 change.    His control is rated 50.  But he is 21.  Will be 22 in November.

Put Rocker in the O's pitching development system and he is a potential #1 prospect.    Holt specialty is teaching the changeup.    Adley, Grayson and DL all graduate next year.    That leaves Kjerstad and Henderson to head the O's prospect list.    Neither has the name recognition and projectability as a #1 prospect that Rocker has.  Not Watson, or Cowser or House or the above slot 4th or 5th round picks that Elias can get but going under slot.

If Elias wants to keep the a highly rated minor league system draft Rocker.   Give Rocker slot at 6.18m.    He will be worth it.   He fits with the O's contending in 2023 more that Watson, Cowser or House.    Can you imagine  Grayson, Means, DL and Rocker in the rotation?

 

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1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Elias paid Adley Rutchman slot.....8.1m.    It was worth it.  He is the face for the rebuild.   

Elias did not think Austin Martin was worth slot so he went underslot.

The 5th slot is worth 6.18m.  Mayer, Lawler and Leiter are all worth slot but they will be probably be gone by the time the O's pick.

Speculation has Elias going underslot again.  But will he?

I think Kumar Rocker is worth slot.   Going into the 2021 season Rocker was projected as the #1 pick.   There have been some questions about his velocity and Leiter has pass him in the rankings but Rocker is still a dominating force.

6'5", 245 lbs,   He has three plus pitches.  He has a 70 slider, a 65 fastball, a 60 curve and a 50 change.    His control is rated 50.  But he is 21.  Will be 22 in November.

Put Rocker in the O's pitching development system and he is a potential #1 prospect.    Holt specialty is teaching the changeup.    Adley, Grayson and DL all graduate next year.    That leaves Kjerstad and Henderson to head the O's prospect list.    Neither has the name recognition and projectability as a #1 prospect that Rocker has.  Not Watson, or Cowser or House or the above slot 4th or 5th round picks that Elias can get but going under slot.

If Elias wants to keep the a highly rated minor league system draft Rocker.   Give Rocker slot at 6.18m.    He will be worth it.   He fits with the O's contending in 2023 more that Watson, Cowser or House.    Can you imagine  Grayson, Means, DL and Rocker in the rotation?

 

Plus a lot.  I want the college dominator who won't need multiple years in the minors.  Everyone questions his control, but he's got fewer walks than Leiter and a 4.5/1 SO/W ratio.  Now watch him get shelled tonight in the huge game.  But yes, I am imagining that rotation.  And Kumar should be an easy sign - the O's would be his only option.    

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2 hours ago, wildcard said:

Elias paid Adley Rutchman slot.....8.1m.    It was worth it.  He is the face for the rebuild.   

 

I think Kumar Rocker is worth slot.   Going into the 2021 season Rocker was projected as the #1 pick.   There have been some questions about his velocity and Leiter has pass him in the rankings but Rocker is still a dominating force.

 

 

2 things.  1, Adley has not yet proved that he was worth it.  Yes, he may be the face for the rebuild, but he has yet to play above AA ball.  While I hope and believe he is going to be a very good MLB player, until he actually accomplishes that it's just hope and speculation.  We've seen #1 ranked prospects never amount to anything in the Show.  So while I think it VERY likely he was worth the 8.1m, I certainly don't think that's been proven yet.  2, I'm not sure about Rocker.  I like him and there are tons of pluses there, and if they select him I hope he turns out as you've predicted.  But the differing ranges in velocities and his questionable command at times gives me some hesitation.  He's also had some arm issues in the past that makes me hesitate a bit too.  Last thing we need to do is use the #5 pick on a guy who can't stay healthy.  I'm not saying I wouldn't take him at #5, just saying I'm not convinced he's the absolute best choice if he's there at 5.  

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Sometimes it’s worth going over slot too.

Elias is trying to lose and the only advantage you get in losing is a high pick and the opportunity to draft a very highly ranked, top tier talent.

If you aren’t going to draft that player, why are we trying to lose on purpose then?

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1 hour ago, forphase1 said:

2 things.  1, Adley has not yet proved that he was worth it.  Yes, he may be the face for the rebuild, but he has yet to play above AA ball.  While I hope and believe he is going to be a very good MLB player, until he actually accomplishes that it's just hope and speculation.  We've seen #1 ranked prospects never amount to anything in the Show.  So while I think it VERY likely he was worth the 8.1m, I certainly don't think that's been proven yet.  2, I'm not sure about Rocker.  I like him and there are tons of pluses there, and if they select him I hope he turns out as you've predicted.  But the differing ranges in velocities and his questionable command at times gives me some hesitation.  He's also had some arm issues in the past that makes me hesitate a bit too.  Last thing we need to do is use the #5 pick on a guy who can't stay healthy.  I'm not saying I wouldn't take him at #5, just saying I'm not convinced he's the absolute best choice if he's there at 5.  

There is no guarantee with any of the players in the draft.  Not Cowser, Watson or House.    Say they save a million to spend on later choices.  They don't have guarantees with them either.  Rocker appears to have a higher ceiling than any of those guys.

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Of course it's never a guarantee with any players in any draft.  I'm not suggesting they SHOULD go underslot either, though that strategy doesn't bother me either, as it CAN work.  All depends on the exact specifics on which strategy I'd use draft by draft if I was GM.  I just am a bit cautious of using that pick on Rocker with some of the issues he has faced with injuries and command.  No doubt he has a VERY high ceiling, probably higher than the other options that will be there are #5.  I just worry about the floor being lower than it should be too with those issues.  But that's why Elias gets paid, to make these decisions, and then get the glory or ridicule that comes from it.

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1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

If they picked Rocker, he'd slot between Rodriguez and Hall in terms of value. I'm cool with that. 

And when Adley, Grayson and DL graduate next season Rocker is the O's #1 prospect.

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A lot of people are assuming Elias will go underslot. Why? Because Keith Law and Jim Callis floated that out there? Between Houston and Baltimore, Elias has done that twice, out of seven drafts. (I believe seven is the right number) And in Houston, he was not the main decision maker. He was not the GM. The two times he has done it, Correa has shown be worthy of 1-1. We don’t yet know what Kjerstad is going to be, unfortunately. So, these rumors are nothing to get too excited about. 

The draft of Appel, and the HS arm (name escapes me at the moment) did not work out for them. Again, he was not the GM, so we do not know what his thought were. 

I will say that I am against taking Rocker, for slot. He is certainly a talent. But there are often times when he looks like a guy that should go in the middle of the first round. When you make that large of an investment on an arm, you better be sure that he has great medicals and the intangibles of a big winner. 

Their internal formula will assign a future value to all draft eligible players. I would think he is in the top 10 or so. 

People often forget that he could easily go back to school. This is his sophomore year. And do we know what his number is? It might be more than our slot. Does he even want to come to Baltimore? Some players do tell certain teams to not pick them, or they price themselves out for some teams. There is a lot that goes on behind the scenes. It isn’t a menu you simply order from. 

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The HS arm you're referencing is Brady Aiken who was damaged goods. They couldn't do a physical on him until after he was drafted. That's when it was discovered. They never offered him enough to sign him so he went back in the draft.

Correa was a special pick because Elias had done a huge amount of background work on him and believed he had more information than other teams, and he likely did.

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1 hour ago, Jammer7 said:

A lot of people are assuming Elias will go underslot. Why? Because Keith Law and Jim Callis floated that out there? Between Houston and Baltimore, Elias has done that twice, out of seven drafts. (I believe seven is the right number) And in Houston, he was not the main decision maker. He was not the GM. The two times he has done it, Correa has shown be worthy of 1-1. We don’t yet know what Kjerstad is going to be, unfortunately. So, these rumors are nothing to get too excited about. 

The draft of Appel, and the HS arm (name escapes me at the moment) did not work out for them. Again, he was not the GM, so we do not know what his thought were. 

I will say that I am against taking Rocker, for slot. He is certainly a talent. But there are often times when he looks like a guy that should go in the middle of the first round. When you make that large of an investment on an arm, you better be sure that he has great medicals and the intangibles of a big winner. 

Their internal formula will assign a future value to all draft eligible players. I would think he is in the top 10 or so. 

People often forget that he could easily go back to school. This is his sophomore year. And do we know what his number is? It might be more than our slot. Does he even want to come to Baltimore? Some players do tell certain teams to not pick them, or they price themselves out for some teams. There is a lot that goes on behind the scenes. It isn’t a menu you simply order from. 

The lower Rocker goes in the draft there is a good chance that the Bonus is less.    I have seen several mock drafts that has him going to KC at 7.    I don't see why he would prefer KC.  Montgomery is 12 hours from KC and Baltimore.  So that is not the reason.

As far as Rocker turning down 6m, I doubt it.

Rocker is a Junior in college.  And yes, he could go back for his Senior year but why risk injury  next year if he is offered 6m.

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15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Obviously, whatever Elias does here, he’ll do it because he thinks it’s the best way to improve the farm system.  So I disagree with the sentence “If Elias wants to keep the a highly rated minor league system draft Rocker.   Give Rocker slot at 6.18m.”    The goal isn’t to “keep a highly rated farm system.”   The goal is to have the best farm system possible regardless of how some third party ranks it.  The fact that Rocker has name recognition” should not factor into Elias’ thinking at all.

Semantics.   Whether we say Elias wants to keep a highly rated farm system or the best farm system possible, its basically saying the same thing.   And if name recognition is the issue, he has it because he has been very, very good in one of the best college baseball conferences in the world.

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