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Tony-OH

2021 1st round pick (5): Colton Cowser - OF - (Junior) Sam Houston University

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This is obviously not real criteria for a draft pick, but it would have been cool to have drafted Rocker and have the first (to my knowledge) MLB player of Indian descent in the majors.

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If Elias is bad then the whole new O's future scheme is all for nothing. I am trying to have faith in the Elias / Staff for the future rise of the O's.  If he is a failure the the O's are set back many years. Will they be called the Baltimore Cubs?

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7 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Elias: We got our guy

 

Maybe he was BPA on their board?  I don’t know.  Hard to believe he had him over Lawlar but who knows.

Are you really going to fall for this again? What was he going to say, I signed a lesser player so I could save money in round 1 to overslot later in the draft.

Honestly, I just don’t know how you can believe anything that Elias says in these situations. Unless Cowser gets a slot number comparable to his selection. If he gets #5 money then it seems to reason that Elias thought he was the 5th best player.

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8 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Really frustrated that you start draft talk in this forum. 

Didn’t do it to piss you off sir! I figured the casual reader that never ventures off the main Orioles section would be interested. My mistake 

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4 hours ago, Hallas said:

Reading between the lines I think he had Cowser a hair under Lawlar but not enough to justify the price difference.

Elias has had some success with bucking the talking heads.  In 2012 everyone assumed he would pick Mark Appel or Byron Buxton, and most mocks had Correa 3 or 4.  He took Correa with 1.1 and it worked out quite well.  Buxton would have been fine too but they dodged a bullet with Appel.

 

I get that everyone wants to keep bringing this up but it’s one example.  He hasn’t shown that this is the best strategy outside of 1 time.  Anything can look good if you use the one time it worked out as an example.  
 

At some point, we have to stop with that.  Also, how do we know Luhnow isn’t the one who wanted Correa?  

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17 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Do we really expect everyone to be 100% honest with what they say? 

No matter whom they picked, it would have ticked off half the keyboard GMs, who think they know more than the GM does.

 

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So there is a lot to like about Cowser.

But I have an issue with this pick overall. 

You are actively trying not to win.  When you are doing that and you draft high, you have 2 advantages to losing.  A high pick and draft pool money.  The draft pool money is directly impacted by the higher pick and that player, even in an underslot deal, is getting a big portion of that money.  
 

Is Colton Cowser worth being a bad team?  
 

Lawlar was a guy that most seemed to believe had elite upside.  Now, maybe he didn’t and maybe the pundits were wrong about him but he has been talked about for over a year as the best player in this draft, or at least  the best position player.

Cowser showed little power coming into this season.  He wasn’t really on the radar as this high of a pick before so I tend to buy into Lawlar, as a kid who has been talked about for a long time and not just a riser at the right time.

In sports, elite talent is what wins you titles.  Very good talent is out there and available.  Very good talent is valuable and you certainly love having it but elite is what puts you over the top.  
 

Elias seems to have a Ravens mentality.  Accumulate picks, draft good players but don’t take the big swings for the elite talent.  This is a strategy that works well in a lot of ways but it also hurts you when you don’t get the elite guys that put you over the top.

If you are going to lose and lose on purpose, you take advantage of the one thing that “rewards” you for losing…the BPA at the top of the draft.  The Orioles didn’t do that.  

 

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5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So there is a lot to like about Cowser.

But I have an issue with this pick overall. 

You are actively trying not to win.  When you are doing that and you draft high, you have 2 advantages to losing.  A high pick and draft pool money.  The draft pool money is directly impacted by the higher pick and that player, even in an underslot deal, is getting a big portion of that money.  
 

Is Colton Cowser worth being a bad team?  
 

Lawlar was a guy that most seemed to believe had elite upside.  Now, maybe he didn’t and maybe the pundits were wrong about him but he has been talked about for over a year as the best player in this draft, or at least  the best position player.

Cowser showed little power coming into this season.  He wasn’t really on the radar as this high of a pick before so I tend to buy into Lawlar, as a kid who has been talked about for a long time and not just a riser at the right time.

 

He had an OPS of 1.052 in 2019 for SHSU and also had 3 HR in 13 games for Team USA that year

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On the surface:

1. I don't like a college bat from a non power conference

2. I don't like that he was the third or fourth option at freakin Sam Houston State for CF in his Fr, So seasons

3. I don't like that Tony's scouting report rated his arm as average, and doubted that he would stick as a ML CF'er

Seems like we took a top 5 pick and got a guy whose ceiling is just a guy who might be a contributor to a ML team.

 

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I dont mind this pick that much, as long as it is underslot.  I would have preferred the higher ceiling guys available like Lawler, Benny Montgomery I am big on, but those guys are a ways down the line for being ready.  

As far as above slot guys, Lonnie White Jr stands out to me.  He is a first round talent, multi sport star(4 star recruit committed to Penn St at WR and baseball).  Teams didnt want to commit their first pick to him because of the strong commitment.  Maybe a James Wood at 41, Lonnie White Jr at 65 and maybe snag Jaden Hill at 76?

(James Wood and Lonnie White Jr would both be over slot)

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