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Would This Season Be Considered A Disappointment?

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18 minutes ago, LTO's said:

So do most, if not all, teams in this league. You don’t even have to look further than the AL East. None of Ryu, Cole, Eovaldi, Matz, Stripling, Sale, Taillon, Kluber, Hill, Pivetta etc etc were drafted by the team they are pitching for right now. This is the case for a ton of teams. I’m not saying don’t draft pitchers but if you’re drafting one you shouldn’t be expecting them to be a big league starter. That’s what makes drafting pitchers high such a unique risk and why I have no issue with Cowser over Rocker. Cowser over Leiter....that’s a different story.

As an aside, I just noticed that Boston has only used six starters all year, one of whom started only two games.   They’ve had incredible good fortune keeping their starting five healthy.   Will be interesting to see if that holds in the second half.    

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1 hour ago, MijiT88 said:

I read this and honestly tried to think of who the Astros have developed as pitchers through their system. They did develop two of their long term starters (Keuchel and McCullers) but they signed or traded for the rest of their rotation in the likes of McHugh, Fister, Fiers, Verlander, Morton, Cole, Grienke, and Miley. Maybe Elias is taking the same approach to this...

Look at this year's rotation.  They've gotten a to. Of starts from international signings during the Elias timeframe: Urquiddy, Framber Valdez, Garcia, Javier.  Those guys have started about half their games.

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52 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I really hope not.

By that I mean, it’s ok to have a philosophy.  I personally like the idea of prioritizing position players.  
 

But I am really tired of hearing well This happened and that happened in Houston, therefore it will happen here (btw, this is a general point, not saying you are doing this).

A lot of things come into play that allow things to work out correctly, including a lot of luck.  You could do the same thing in one place and it works and then in another place it doesn’t work and luck could be a big reason for that.
 

Also, we need to stop acting like Elias was the reason Houston won.  Elias was part of the organization.  He wasn’t the head guy.  He wasn’t the architect.  He was a building block.  Maybe we give him too much credit for what happened in Houston?  Or maybe he doesn’t get enough credit?  Who knows.  One thing we do know is that he wasn’t in charge.

The philosophy is what I was talking about here. I like the idea on focusing of developing who we can develop and if we can get a steady stream of position players coming through the system it could be easier to sign a starter or two to help us over that hump. I just think focusing on getting the best talent we can and not focusing on hitter or pitcher will make us better in the long run. I think that is what is happening here. 
 

We are seeing what we have and what could stick and what won't this year, I think next year we will see the young guys show us what they have at the big league level and we will be more set in a path to see what we need to do to win. This year has been tough to watch but I for one am much more interested in what the group in Bowie will look like next year for us up in Baltimore. If that doesn't work out then I will be disappointed 

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5 minutes ago, MijiT88 said:

The philosophy is what I was talking about here. I like the idea on focusing of developing who we can develop and if we can get a steady stream of position players coming through the system it could be easier to sign a starter or two to help us over that hump. I just think focusing on getting the best talent we can and not focusing on hitter or pitcher will make us better in the long run. I think that is what is happening here. 
 

We are seeing what we have and what could stick and what won't this year, I think next year we will see the young guys show us what they have at the big league level and we will be more set in a path to see what we need to do to win. This year has been tough to watch but I for one am much more interested in what the group in Bowie will look like next year for us up in Baltimore. If that doesn't work out then I will be disappointed 

Well, I think they are leaving talent on the board.  They aren’t taking BPA imo.  Now, you probably can’t every draft because of the slotting system but I feel they could do a little more of it…or blow your wad on 2 or 3 picks and scrap the rest.

But I’m a big proponent of elite talent and I feel we are lacking that after you get past a few guys.

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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I really hope not.

By that I mean, it’s ok to have a philosophy.  I personally like the idea of prioritizing position players.  
 

But I am really tired of hearing well This happened and that happened in Houston, therefore it will happen here (btw, this is a general point, not saying you are doing this).

A lot of things come into play that allow things to work out correctly, including a lot of luck.  You could do the same thing in one place and it works and then in another place it doesn’t work and luck could be a big reason for that.
 

Also, we need to stop acting like Elias was the reason Houston won.  Elias was part of the organization.  He wasn’t the head guy.  He wasn’t the architect.  He was a building block.  Maybe we give him too much credit for what happened in Houston?  Or maybe he doesn’t get enough credit?  Who knows.  One thing we do know is that he wasn’t in charge.

I think everyone knows the reason why Houston won. 

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32 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They had an advantage in knowledge over other teams which positively impacted transactions.  I see no evidence we have that sort of advantage.

What exactly was the advantage? And again, that would only impact what prospects they give up not the fact that they had the prospects in the first place and had to supplement the rotation with pitchers outside the org. You're insinuating that the idea of trading prospects for starting pitchers is untenable now because the Astros did it successfully. That doesn't make any sense. 

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

As an aside, I just noticed that Boston has only used six starters all year, one of whom started only two games.   They’ve had incredible good fortune keeping their starting five healthy.   Will be interesting to see if that holds in the second half.    

I never looked at it this way for years but Boston benefited from their down years. Orioles aside like most I don’t enjoy seeing NYY and Boston win. They were willing to reset which helped their turnarounds.  In 2012 they moved a bunch of money in that deal with LAD. They signed a bunch of mid level FA’s in 2013 and when Lester and Lackey bounced back they win a WS. It was a perfect storm/lucky season. 
 

I think they are having another lucky season this year. I don’t think they have the pitching to get through October. I still think the Rays will catch them for the division. 

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1 hour ago, LTO's said:

So do most, if not all, teams in this league. You don’t even have to look further than the AL East. None of Ryu, Cole, Eovaldi, Matz, Stripling, Sale, Taillon, Kluber, Hill, Pivetta etc etc were drafted by the team they are pitching for right now. This is the case for a ton of teams. I’m not saying don’t draft pitchers but if you’re drafting one you shouldn’t be expecting them to be a big league starter. That’s what makes drafting pitchers high such a unique risk and why I have no issue with Cowser over Rocker. Cowser over Leiter....that’s a different story.

It’s always dangerous to paint with a broad brush but there is a big difference between pitchers and hitters. Many pitchers for a variety of reasons take longer to figure it out. There are some position players who take until their late 20’s to figure it out but most quality ones are in their early to mid 20’s. We know those players are  coming from drafts, International and prospect trades. 

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As others have already mentioned, Keegan Akin and Dean Kremer have been major disapointments. I feel like Akin's best start this year was the one he missed because he injured himself making breakfast...

I think Bruce Zimmerman deserves some modest credit for looking like an actual #4-#5 starter. I think he could stick around the back end of this rotation for a few years.

With the other setbacks/regressions/injuries from players like Kjerstad, Lowther, Diaz, Mountcastle, Santander, H. Harvey... It feels like the hopes of this rebuild are resting more and more on Aldey/Grayson/DL all becoming All Star major leaguers. Fingers crossed. 

 

 

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On 7/12/2021 at 3:10 PM, andrewochs615 said:

We can still get similar results with them if we end up with nothing but scrubs around them. 

I agree. 

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On 7/12/2021 at 12:37 PM, SteveA said:

My biggest disappointment is that the first wave of second tier pitching prospects -- Kremer, Akin, Zimmerman, Lowther, has been so bad.   

I totally agree with this.  We have all of our hopes and dreams on 3 players and if Adley ends being Matt Weiters, and Hall and Rodriguez struggle against MLB hitters (which is a very real possibility) this franchise will struggle get to .500 with so little high end talent coming behind them.

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On 7/12/2021 at 7:39 PM, Three Run Homer said:

Among the younger players, I've been pleasantly surprised by Mullins, Means and Urias.  Every other young player who has gotten playing time in Baltimore this season has been a disappointment.  Ryan Mountcastle has been trying to become a more disciplined hitter of late, but it's been established that he is limited to 1B and DH and his offense is a far cry from what he showed last season.  Hays shows occasional flashes but overall he can't stay healthy and he has not produced.  Santander was one of the O's best hitters last season, and came into the season being talked about as a potential trade chip, but he has shown even less durability and production than Hays.  Ryan McKenna and DJ Stewart have had opportunities but have failed to establish themselves as major league caliber hitters.  The catching has been abysmal.  Akin, Kremer, Lowther, Tate, Scott and Fry have all regressed.  

There's better news on the farm, but only at the AA level and below.  The only player or pitcher currently at Norfolk who has played well enough to merit a promotion to the majors is Jahmai Jones, and that's only with the bat--he apparently doesn't field well enough at 2B or OF to be promoted to Baltimore.  Kyle Bradish and Kevin Smith are having trouble adjusting to the major league ball, although at least they are pitching better than Akin, Lowther, Wells and Kremer at Norfolk.  We can probably expect a similar period of adjustment for Grayson Rodriguez when he is promoted from Bowie to Norfolk.  For the life of me I don't understand why MLB doesn't just use the same damn ball at all levels.  

Not sure I fully agree. He had a rough April, then a good May ,and a great June. Off to a slow start for July, but it's been about 30 PA, give or take.

He had a 139+ in 2020.

OPS by month in 2021:

April - 48
May - 107
June - 171

Same exercise for 2020:

August - 161
Sept/Oct - 129

So he had a bad month, and has had a higher high as well. I think it's a little early to worry about any regression or significant step back.

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Franchise really feels like it's in the woods right now and I'm not optimistic about the rebuild for reasons you're all going over.

We have ML talent coming, I guess?  But guess what, so do our opponents, and frankly after 15+ years of watching the team I'm just not that excited about the Orioles' chances in developing a winner out of our stock.  Not to say a winner can't be built but I'd be more excited if I felt like Elias and Hyde could plug the holes the same way they were plugged in the Duquette years.  Many guys being given chances, and very little positive surprise, even for the relative shallowness of the talent pool.  In 2012, you had Maikel Franco-type guys playing, and some of them keyed huge moments.  That team was a 26-man effort, constantly.  Some important anchor players surrounded by guys who could produce a new hero every night.  This year I'm just constantly waiting to be disappointed.

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