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What does this draft "mean" in terms of the Elias plan?

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1 minute ago, WI O’s Fan said:

Holistically, the prime for most players is 24-29 age group.  Drafting 21 year olds puts them in the majors at their peak and still under team control.  Drafting latter round pitchers equals Macphail mantra of “from quantity comes quality “.  I am hoping 2022, Elias brings in some priced veterans to begin to quest to respectability.

As a general rule the sooner a player reaches the majors the better career he has.  A guy that gets to the majors at 19 is almost certainly going to have a more valuable career than someone who reaches the majors at 23.

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Great thread.  

The number one message I take from this thread is that Elias believes that his job is in jeopardy if the O's don't start winning soon.  I have a lot of concerns about this draft, but the number one concern is that it screams shortsightedness.  Elias doesn't have the luxury of waiting 5 years for high school players to make it through the system.  He needs players who can contribute in a couple of years.    

Dan Duquette was able to build a winning team for a short period of time here by putting the organization's resources into the major league club and neglecting long-term talent development.    I'm afraid this draft is a sign that we're going to see a similar approach in the next couple of years from Elias.  

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5 hours ago, MDtransplant757 said:

Teams don't, they look what they have and look around and see what they can get to add to be competitive. No way of building a team is "Right".

Yeah they aren't getting by with Akin's and Kermer's of the world. What I'm getting at is overall strategy of decent to above average pitching depth. Something tells me that's what Elias and Co are pushing for.

I don't think you can get decent to above average pitching depth without devoting serious draft and international bonus capital to pitching.  And Elias has not done that.  The only thing the O's have is great depth of low-ceiling college arms drafted after round 10.  

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My draft thoughts, by Jack Handy:

Elias went with very safe stable picks, opposite of what I would have done this year.  This years class, while very deep, lacked top end talent.  A lot of us complained and moaned when they did pick any of the high school SS or Rocker or whoever and went with "under slot" Cowser.  None of the top picks were a sure thing and it didnt matter who they picked in the first round.  I personally would have preferred this draft just swinging for the fences because it was a lottery draft.  Go under slot and see what the 5 tool high school kid Benny Montgomery turns out to be.  Go all in on one of the 2 or 3 sport high school kids that may end up going to college unless you pay them enough money.  Instead we saw a very safe, mild approach.  There were no Bryce Harpers in this draft, no Ken Griffey Jrs, no Strasburg.  It isnt to say that there wont be any super stars that come out of this draft, but no obvious home runs.  

There really isnt much to read into this draft because the upper end obvious talent really didnt exist.  Leiter and Rocker may turn out to be Ben McDonald in my opinion.  Ben McDonald could have been a HOF but was rode hard and put away wet in college.  Next year, the top end talent is top end.  This year, Lawlar, Meyer, House, they would all be back end first early second round talent.  I know some of you cant see that or accept it, but that is fact.  

@Tony-OHYour opinion is well respected, would you say that the top end of this years draft was weak would fall into the middle of the first round toward the end of the first round in a stronger draft year?  I think the lack of top end talent was off set by the talent being more solid where there wasnt a big difference between the #16 guy or the #41 guy(random numbers)

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The down side of a system like Tampa’s is that they can’t protect everyone. They have to get rid of worthwhile guys just because they have so many worthwhile guys. Elias would be happy to eventually be in that position, but at this time, he has nothing but lots of warm bodies. And now that one of our teams is gone and we have ~40 fewer spots available, who gets dumped?

We have lots of guys but not yet lots of value. That makes even more inexplicable  the reluctance to bring up the middling prospects and let them audition.

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12 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

What is interesting that one of the reasons the Orioles avoided the International market was that they viewed 16 year olds as being too risky.

Just look at the AS game roster, full of HS and International signees under the age of 18

Even Mullins was a college So, drafted at 20

We got a draft with the upside of a ML contributor or two, not going to push the needle towards a championship team

I think the groundwork is continuing to be layed for selling the team.... at least that is my only hope

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I think this draft clearly shows that Elias believes the major league window to compete is within 2 years. I also think he clearly has a philosophy that pitchers are risky, and it is more efficient to trade for them or eventually sign them in free agency. The last big takeaway for me is that he and his scouting staff put a premium on exit velocity for the hitters they target and draft when it comes to their analytical evaluations.

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Said the same thing last year..he went college early which told me that he wants these guys all coming up around the same time.

He is telling us 2023-2024 is when he wants everyone up and this team pushing towards that goal.

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10 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

Great thread.  

The number one message I take from this thread is that Elias believes that his job is in jeopardy if the O's don't start winning soon.  I have a lot of concerns about this draft, but the number one concern is that it screams shortsightedness.  Elias doesn't have the luxury of waiting 5 years for high school players to make it through the system.  He needs players who can contribute in a couple of years.    

Dan Duquette was able to build a winning team for a short period of time here by putting the organization's resources into the major league club and neglecting long-term talent development.    I'm afraid this draft is a sign that we're going to see a similar approach in the next couple of years from Elias.  

He's going to be waiting 5 years for the international scouting and development program (and the Dominican facility) to start regularly producing talent for the major league roster, though. So I don't have a major issue with him drafting players in one draft with a goal of moving them through the system quickly and hopefully having a few contribute at the major league level. And I say that as someone that much preferred drafting Lawlar to Cowser (and still wish we had).

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Btw, for him to have that window starting in 2023, he has to start getting guys to the upper minors and being more aggressive with promotions because these players aren’t going to all come  up and be good in the majors right away.  He has to let them get at bats and get their feet wet prior to that.

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7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Btw, for him to have that window starting in 2023, he has to start getting guys to the upper minors and being more aggressive with promotions because these players aren’t going to all come  up and be good in the majors right away.  He has to let them get at bats and get their feet wet prior to that.

I thought the draft would be a significant data point to tell us even how Elias views 2022, and I'm encouraged there by the texture of the draft.    We'll find out about Mancini in 16 days - that's the real bellwether.    Then after the trade deadline its just the long wait for the CBA and if the org has $45M or $85M for next year's MLB payroll, assuming all the 10 Best Orioles continue as representative versions of themselves.

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What I’m taking away,

1.  NCAA bats are “safer”

2. Pitching is risky to development and because of injuries. 
 

What we are seeing is Elias being very risk adverse and hopefully we will spend our excess bats as currency to “buy” pitching. The Watsons, Rizers, Stowers, Cowsers, etc… will be used to buy a rotation. Well whoever is excess. 

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Here is what I take from the draft:

1) This draft is Elias' last chance to get help for the 2023 team.   That is why he went for college players.  Especially early over taking high schooler Lawlar. 

2) I think Elias knows he has to contend in 2023.   The rebuild has to work by that time.   Whatever he does not have in the organization by that time he has to buy.   But he would rather draft and develop because its cheaper.

3) I believe that Cowser was his guy as he said.  He is pretty uncomfortable with his outfield candidates for a contending team when he gets passed Mullins.  Hays and Santander are injury prone.  Kjerstad is a huge question mark that he can't rely on.    Ditto Diaz.  Cowser ranks ahead of Stowers  and could be help in 2023.  If not at the beginning of the season by some time during the 2023 season.  

Davis and Leiter were gone.  The high schoolers are probably not ready for by 2023.   The top 9 teams did not trust Rocker.   So Elias was not alone on that.

4)  Elias thinks he has the pitching for 2023.   Means, Grayson, DL, Tyler Wells, Bradish,  Zimmermann,   Baumann, Smith, Blaine Knight, Akin, Kremer, Lowther, A Wells, Peralta, Rom, Fry, Scott, Sulser, H Harvey, Tate, Vespi, and Bishop.  That is 22 pitchers that may contribute in 2023.  All but Means, Fry and Scott are cheap and all but Means, Sulser and Fry are still developing.  Elias trusts his pitching development system.

Elias bolstered where he needed to in order to make the 2023 team a contender.  He has power coming but needed more OBP guys is Cowser and Norby.

C - Rutschman

1B Mountcastle

2B  Vavra and  Norby

SS Westburg

3B Henderson

Outfield: Mullins Hays, Santander, Cowser, Stowers

DH   Mundy

Infield Utility  Ortiz and Grenier

Hitter without a position: Jones

5) Going underslot with Cowser will help him sign Trimble and Rhodes overslot.

Why he went so heavy on college players throughout the draft.?  I don't really know but  I guess in case some of them move fast through he system like Westburg and Mundy.

 

 

 

 

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