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Keith Law mid season Top 50 prospects

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https://theathletic.com/2720747/2021/07/22/top-50-mlb-prospects-keith-laws-updated-2021-midseason-list/?source=user_shared_article
 

1. Adley Rutschman, C, Baltimore Orioles

I don’t think this is really debatable at this point; Rutschman is a plus defensive catcher who is hitting .268/.394/.472, with just one fewer walk than strikeout, in Double A, despite coming into the year with just 130 pro at-bats. There’s no real reason to keep him at that level at this point, and if the Orioles were trying to win this year, they’d probably have him in the majors already. I’d advocate for a September call-up just for developmental reasons, since we’ve seen plenty of good hitting prospects struggle at first with big-league pitching. With this power/patience package, even if he doesn’t always hit for average, he still has an everyday floor, with a chance for some down-ballot MVP years thanks to that 30 homer upside.

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29. Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Baltimore Orioles

With lefty D.L. Hall on the shelf with a sore elbow, Rodriguez is the Orioles’ unquestioned top pitching prospect, and he has torn through High A and Double A so far this year, posting a 1.86 ERA with 97 strikeouts and just 13 walks allowed in 63 innings. The Orioles still haven’t unleashed the full Grayson, as he’s averaging less than five innings a start at age 21 – he’s actually gone more than five innings once all year, and he hasn’t thrown more than 83 pitches in any start. I’d like to see how his stuff looks and plays when he’s turning a lineup over three times, rather than two. Right now, it’s a plus fastball that sits 96-99 and an above-average changeup with a developing breaking ball, and I can’t imagine that’ll be that much worse when they finally take his training wheels off.

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A little surprised how high Austin Martin is, considering continued reports of positional questions. Guess there’s no reason to downgrade him after half a season.

I’m guessing DL would’ve been on the list if not for injury. Seemed to be pitching his way into the conversation.

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2 minutes ago, survivedc said:

A little surprised how high Austin Martin is, considering continued reports of positional questions. Guess there’s no reason to downgrade him after half a season.

I’m guessing DL would’ve been on the list if not for injury. Seemed to be pitching his way into the conversation.

That’s Law’s ego at play…same with him having so many guys ahead of GRod, a pitcher he has doubted because of his mechanics.

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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Law has 9 pitchers ahead of GRod, including Leiter and Rocker.

He has Lawlar at 21 and says he has tremendous bat speed. 

That’s just stupid. Is it just because his team hasn’t let him pitch enough?

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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Law has 9 pitchers ahead of GRod, including Leiter and Rocker.

He has Lawlar at 21 and says he has tremendous bat speed. 

Remember a few years ago Law thought Rodriguez had a hitch that would make him a reliever. 

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1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Remember a few years ago Law thought Rodriguez had a hitch that would make him a reliever. 

Yep, which is why I said this is partly his ego at play.  Same with how much he hyped Martin.  He actually rated him higher despite him not really being that good so far.

Now, on one hand, I respect the fact that he is sticking to his convictions and going with his original evaluations.  Otoh, he also doesn’t want to say he was wrong.

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11 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Remember a few years ago Law thought Rodriguez had a hitch that would make him a reliever. 

I remember that, and to me it looks like Grayson has ironed that hitch out, actually. 

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13 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Law has 9 pitchers ahead of GRod, including Leiter and Rocker.

He has Lawlar at 21 and says he has tremendous bat speed. 

I've actually respected Law, but I absolutely cannot imagine having Rocker that high after his dip in stuff and performance this year. That makes me question a lot of his evaluations.

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9 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Yep, which is why I said this is partly his ego at play.  Same with how much he hyped Martin.  He actually rated him higher despite him not really being that good so far.

Now, on one hand, I respect the fact that he is sticking to his convictions and going with his original evaluations.  Otoh, he also doesn’t want to say he was wrong.

I get that to an extent, but the thing I've learned is that you have to adjust your analysis with the more data you have. Batters will tell you a lot on how a pitcher's stuff plays, particularly a lack of success more than success. 

If Grayson can improve his slider a bit more and get more consistent break from the pitch, he's got no doubt TOR stuff. He's built like a stud and the fact is you don't see his stuff fall off even towards the end of his outings. Sure, we have not seen him throw 100 pitches this year but we have in the past and I never saw or heard information that suggested it fell off after 80 pitches.

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15 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I get that to an extent, but the thing I've learned is that you have to adjust your analysis with the more data you have.

Exactly. IT's like original evals bias future opinions. You expect that some, and you don't want to flail at small sample sizes, but c'mon.

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Law has been relegated for me as a resource to find random underrated guys that may be good. He likes to pick some guys that nobody else does and is sometimes right and sometimes wrong on them. 

Adam Hall is making his previous fascination with him seem completely unwarranted. 

 

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10 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

Law has been relegated for me as a resource to find random underrated guys that may be good. He likes to pick some guys that nobody else does and is sometimes right and sometimes wrong on them. 

Adam Hall is making his previous fascination with him seem completely unwarranted. 

 

I have never understood how/why Law was so high on Adam Hall. 

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