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A different kind of Trade Deadline Strategy

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Yes, any player is available for the right price yada, yada, yada...

But maybe that is not what Elias does this trade deadline.  Maybe his strategy is to look at what the 40 man roster may be in November and trade off pieces that may not fit or be non tenders that he might trade for younger cheap players.  This may not be to contenders but rather to other building teams.   Who would that be?

Does team really want 8 outfielders on the 40 man  roster?   Mullins, Hays, Santander, Stewart, McKenna, Diaz, Neustrom, Jarrett.  Maybe he tries to move Stewart and/or Diaz for a younger players not of the 40 man roster.

What about Bannon?  Would someone want him?  He is 25 year old.

Mattson is 26 and a lot of pitchers have passed him on the depth chart.  Does he stay on the 40 man?

Of course any of the following  players are available for a Dominican player or something cheap:

Matt Harvey, Armstrong, Lakins, Plutko,  Severino,  Wynns,   Franco, Galvis,  Valaika, Wilkerson,  Martin, Valdez, Leyba

Most of what people talk about is players that will help contenders but maybe Elias goes a different route with some of these players.

Elias is going to need to fill holes over the winter.  He needs space on the 40 man roster for that and for a Rule 5 guys if he wants to claim one.    He is probably going to need a 3B, a cheap UIF, a backup catcher.  He may get the last 2 on AAA contracts but the 3B he may need space of the 40 man roster.

Here is the what  I project the 40 man roster will be  in November. This will change but Elias is probably thinking about it now.

 

  1. Mancini 1B
  2. Mountcastle  DH/1B 
  3. Jones 2B/LF           
  4. Urias SS
  5. Dorrian 3B
  6. Vavra 2B 
  7. Nevin 1B
  8. Adam Hall 2B
  9. Grenier SS
  10. Mullins CF
  11. Santander RF
  12. Hays LF
  13. Stewart OF
  14. Diaz OF
  15. McKenna CF
  16. Neustrom LF
  17. Jarrett  OF
  18. Means  SP
  19. DL Hall SP
  20. Watkins SP
  21. Baumann SP
  22. Bradish SP
  23. Zimmermann SP
  24. Akins SP
  25. Kremer SP
  26. Lowther SP
  27. A Wells SP
  28. Blaine  Knight SP
  29. Smith SP
  30. Peralta SP
  31. T Wells  SP
  32. Fry RP
  33. Scott RP
  34. Sulser
  35. H Harvey
  36. Tate 
  37. Lopez
  38.  Vespi
  39. Bishop
  40.  Chris Davis  

The Bold are players that will be added to the roster this fall.   Adley and Grayson don't need to be added until April.

What do you think? 

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1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Yes, any player is available for the right price yada, yada, yada...

But maybe that is not what Elias does this trade deadline.  Maybe his strategy is to look at what the the 40 man roster may be in November and trade off pieces that may not fit or be non tenders that he might trade for younger cheap players.  This may not be to contenders but rather to other building teams.   Who would that be?

Does team really want 8 outfielders on the 40 man  roster?   Mullins, Hays, Santander, Stewart, McKenna, Diaz, Neustrom, Jarrett.  Maybe he tries to move Stewart and/or Diaz for a younger players not of the 40 man roster.

What about Bannon?  Would someone want him?  He is 25 year old.

Mattson is 26 and a lot of pitchers have passed him on the depth chart.  Does he stay on the 40 man?

Of course any of the following  players in available for a Dominican player or something cheap:

Matt Harvey, Armstrong, Lakins, Plutko,  Severino,  Wynns,   Franco, Galvis,  Valaika, Wilkerson,  Martin, Valdez,, Leyba

Most of what people talk about is players that will help contenders but maybe Elias goes a different route with some of these players.

Elias is going to need to fill holes over the winter.  He needs space on the 40 man roster for that and for a Rule 5 guys if he wants to claim one.    He is probably going to need a 3B, a cheap UIF, a backup catcher.  He may get the last 2 on AAA contracts but the 3B he may need space of the 40 man roster.

Here is the 40 man roster he I project right now  it will be  in November. This will change but Elias is probably thinking about it now.

 

  1. Mancini 1B
  2. Mountcastle  DH/1B 
  3. Jones 2B/LF           
  4. Urias SS
  5. Dorrian 3B
  6. Vavra 2B 
  7. Nevin 1B
  8. Adam Hall 2B
  9. Grenier SS
  10. Mullins CF
  11. Santander RF
  12. Hays LF
  13. Stewart OF
  14. Diaz OF
  15. McKenna CF
  16. Neustrom LF
  17. Jarrett  OF
  18. Means  SP
  19. DL Hall SP
  20. Watkins SP
  21. Baumann SP
  22. Bradish SP
  23. Zimmermann SP
  24. Akins SP
  25. Kremer SP
  26. Lowther SP
  27. A Wells SP
  28. Blaine  Knight SP
  29. Smith SP
  30. Peralta SP
  31. T Wells  SP
  32. Fry RP
  33. Scott RP
  34. Sulser
  35. H Harvey
  36. Tate 
  37. Lopez
  38.  Vespi
  39. Bishop
  40.  Chris Davis  

Bold are players that will be added to the roster this fall.   Adley and Grayson don't need to be added until April.

What do you think? 

I honestly don't think we could give away most of the guys you mentioned, let alone get anyone in return that would be any type of improvement.

I think it's best to just release the majority of them or put them through waivers, and if someone claims them oh well. Some like Franco and Harvey are only on 1 year deals anyway so that will open some spots as well.

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2 minutes ago, billw76 said:

I honestly don't think we could give away most of the guys you mentioned, let alone get anyone in return that would be any type of improvement.

I think it's best to just release the majority of them or put them through waivers, and if someone claims them oh well. Some like Franco and Harvey are only on 1 year deals anyway so that will open some spots as well.

No, you can trade them.  Could have used guys like this to take on decent players on short term expensive contracts to make us a more watchable team.

You still can do that.

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Interesting thought, and I’m not dismissing it out of hand. I agree that there will be a 40-man crunch and we want to get rid of guys to alleviate that crunch but none of our peripheral forty-man guys have meaningful trade value. Who would trade for Bannon or Franco? 

Valaika, Harvey, all the guys you mention have less than zero value, meaning they are an even bet to not even be picked for free.

I agree that we need to open spots, but not via trade, because the Pat Valaikas  of the world have no value, not even to us. 
Remember also we are third on the waiver list( not sure how the sequence goes but we are certainly top-5) and Elias will just dump a guy if he wants. It took way too long, but he finally dumped Sisco.  
if he HAD guys with meaningful value, of course he’d package them with a bigger name if the opportunity arose, but it’s unlikely that will happen.

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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

No, you can trade them.  Could have used guys like this to take on decent players on short term expensive contracts to make us a more watchable team.

You still can do that.

You may be able to trade them, but getting a decent player probably won't happen, regardless of contract. 

As much as I enjoy watching guys like Miggy and Votto or any other big contract player I can't see it making us more watchable, at least it wouldn't make me watch more, we'd still be terrible, but just have a bigger more expensive name on the team.

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I don’t know yet who needs to be added for rule 5 protection, but the following will come off the 40-Man.

Anderson, Eshelman, Harvey, Lakins, Plutko, Valdez,

Probably also: Sulser

Severino, Wynns

Galvis, Gutierrez Franco, Valaika, Leyba

Stewart.

Thats 15 guys right there. And that doesn’t include the meaningful guys that might get traded in the next few days.

none of the guys I listed has any trade value except as warm body throw-ins

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I see where you are going with this and he kind of did something like that in early June. When Nick Cuiffo came off the IL in Norfolk, Elias shipped Taylor Davis out to Pittsburgh for a low level player. 
 

The issue right now could be that teams just drafted, so they might need as much depth. 

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4 hours ago, billw76 said:

You may be able to trade them, but getting a decent player probably won't happen, regardless of contract. 

As much as I enjoy watching guys like Miggy and Votto or any other big contract player I can't see it making us more watchable, at least it wouldn't make me watch more, we'd still be terrible, but just have a bigger more expensive name on the team.

And it’s kinda been the Orioles strategy the last 25 years. It’s always what we can do it the short term. I remember very clearly when Elias was hired he wanted to build a pipeline of talent throughout the organization. I want to have a team that for the next 25 years we can produce talent and be in contention consistently. 

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34 minutes ago, Bmorebirds24 said:

And it’s kinda been the Orioles strategy the last 25 years. It’s always what we can do it the short term. I remember very clearly when Elias was hired he wanted to build a pipeline of talent throughout the organization. I want to have a team that for the next 25 years we can produce talent and be in contention consistently. 

That's the same thing I want, a consistent pipeline of talent that gives us a chance to contend consistently. 

I'm all for moving on from guys like Valaika, Wilkerson, Severino, etc, but IMO they have zero value, and probably they only way we can move them is to add them as a spare part in a bigger trade.

Getting a big name, big contract guy just to get rid of them isn't the way to go though, and I can't see it making this team more watchable.

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1 hour ago, billw76 said:

That's the same thing I want, a consistent pipeline of talent that gives us a chance to contend consistently. 

I'm all for moving on from guys like Valaika, Wilkerson, Severino, etc, but IMO they have zero value, and probably they only way we can move them is to add them as a spare part in a bigger trade.

Getting a big name, big contract guy just to get rid of them isn't the way to go though, and I can't see it making this team more watchable.

Agree 100%. 
 I’m all for moving on from certain players on the roster now, however I’m not ok with it rushing guys. Unfortunately I don’t think we are a .500 team next year so I’m ok with slowly promoting guys and manipulating their service time to help the club in the long run. 
 

Much like everyone else I’m excited to see guys like Gray Rod, Hall, AR, among others. I just don’t want a 2-3 year window because we have a good core of players. I want the moment one is gone the next player steps in and we are excited yearly rather than waiting a few years to be excited after another rebuild. 

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I am not sure there is no trade value here.

The O's have a Top 5 farm system now.  Some have them as high as #2 behind Tampa.   And when Wander Franco graduates in August the O's could have the top rated farm system.

Diaz (24) was the O's #8 prospect prior to the draft.   MLB.com still has him there because they have not added the July's draftee.

Bannon (25) is the O's #20 prospect on that same list.

Stewart at 27 years old has 21 homer and 64 RBI in 445 at bats in the majors.  And he still has 4 years of service time before he is a FA. And one option left.

I am not saying any of these are great players but to a team that has a farm system in the bottom half  of the majors these guys  may be attractive to add to their system.

 

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49 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I am not sure there is no trade value here.

The O's have a Top 5 farm system now.  Some have them as high as #2 behind Tampa.   And when Wander Franco graduates in August the O's could have the top rated farm system.

Diaz (24) was the O's #8 prospect prior to the draft.   MLB.com still has him there because they have not added the July's draftee.

Bannon (25) is the O's #20 prospect on that same list.

Stewart at 27 years old has 21 homer and 64 RBI in 445 at bats in the majors.  And he still has 4 years of service time before he is a FA. And one option left.

I am not saying any of these are great players but to a team that has a farm system in the bottom half  of the majors these guys  may be attractive to add to their system.

 

Stewart doesn’t add anything to anyone’s system.  Neither is Bannon.  These aren’t guys anyone is clamoring to add.

Again, you may be able to package some players and get a vet player but that’s about it.

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