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A different kind of Trade Deadline Strategy

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7 minutes ago, phatty said:

Padres seem like they are trying to stay under luxury tax (source to the Athletic)

While I don’t particularly want Homer at $59 million over 4 years (especially after Davis) if they brought the deal down to $8-$10 million/ year and added a top 5 pitching prospect (Lange type) it would excite me a bit. 
 

I doubt the Orioles would ever be interested in “buying” a prospect, but I’m not sure what else would interest SD

Padres could be interested in Means.  They want to add a starter.

I don’t mind taking on Hosmer (or Myers) but what is coming back would have to be really good.

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41 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Ok, so say you trade Hall and Baumann or Bradish (just choosing 2 people)

You think a system widely regarded as a top 10 system will SIGNIFICANTLY weaken if they deal 2 players?  
 

I think we have a different definition of significantly weaken.  I think it hurts in the short term but you can recover and it makes the ML team better, which is far more important than where your system is rated by Baseball America.

I definitely think it significantly weakens the system to trade any of the guys in our top 5 right now.

Can we recover from trading Hall, Henderson or whatever it would take, absolutely, but Ramirez doesn't improve the ML team enough to make that trade this deadline.

Ramirez is a piece you add when we are ready to compete, to help hopefully put the team over the top to contention, not to simply put a bigger name on the field to maybe make us more watchable, which I don't think Ramirez does.

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2 minutes ago, billw76 said:

I definitely think it significantly weakens the system to trade any of the guys in our top 5 right now.

Can we recover from trading Hall, Henderson or whatever it would take, absolutely, but Ramirez doesn't improve the ML team enough to make that trade this deadline.

Ramirez is a piece you add when we are ready to compete, to help hopefully put the team over the top to contention, not to simply put a bigger name on the field to maybe make us more watchable, which I don't think Ramirez does.

I think he could be that piece in 2023. I don’t mind acquiring the piece early.

And again, he is one name I would pursue.  I would prefer longer term options but I’m not scared off by the idea that he could leave in a few years.  

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A lot can change between now and 2023.  Maybe we decide that a left side of Westburg and Henderson is ready.  Then why pay for Ramirez.  Or, over the next yeare and a half, Ramirez could suffer an injury.  He'll be entering his age 30 season then, as well.  

At this point, I'm inclined to keep all of Means, Mullins, Mancini and our top minor leaguers.  All could be part of our future.

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You guys are massively underestimating what it would take to get Ramirez. In his down year of 2019 he was worth 3.4 fwar, every other year since 2016 he has been worth at least, or on pace to exceed, 4.7 fwar. He has 2 very cheap club options in '22-23. He would certainly bring back multiple top 10 prospects and need a headliner like Grayson.

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My feeling is that you try to create a pipeline feeding talent to the big team.   When that talent starts to come up then you decide what holes need to be filled and where your excess talent lies.   Not now.   You don't go for a guy like Ramirez unless you are going all in over the next two years which would mean trading off many of the chips and bloating the payroll again.    It doesn't mean you couldn't create a contending team for 2023 but it's still no slam dunk and you've traded a lot of capital for short term gains.

 

We don't know if D.L. Hall becomes a bust, a reliever, or a star.   Who knew Cedric Mullins would turn into what he has.   This isn't time to trade the chips.  Most of the chips could turn out to be nothing but Jose Ramirez turns into nothing in two years as well.

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19 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

A lot can change between now and 2023.  Maybe we decide that a left side of Westburg and Henderson is ready.  Then why pay for Ramirez.  Or, over the next yeare and a half, Ramirez could suffer an injury.  He'll be entering his age 30 season then, as well.  

 

Or he could still be playing at the MVP level has been 3 of the last 4 years (top 3 MVP voting those years and well on his way to another 5+ WAR this year) and those guys could fizzle out or get hurt…or they just all play together and we are that much better.-

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14 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

You guys are massively underestimating what it would take to get Ramirez. In his down year of 2019 he was worth 3.4 fwar, every other year since 2016 he has been worth at least, or on pace to exceed, 4.7 fwar. He has 2 very cheap club options in '22-23. He would certainly bring back multiple top 10 prospects and need a headliner like Grayson.

It is possible that you need a top 20 overall prospect to move him and if that’s the case, I say no.  Like I said, Hall is the best prospect I would move in any deal for the Os right now..and btw, for purposes of the discussion, I am defining best by highest rated.  You could debate that Gunnar or even Westburg are better prospects but I’m just going off of the rankings for discussion purposes.

I agree that Hall may not be good enough to be a headliner for Cle to justify trading Ramirez and maybe they would need 2 of those 3 guys but that’s not a deal I would do.  If we had him for 3 or 4 years, I would be good with that but not 2.

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14 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

My feeling is that you try to create a pipeline feeding talent to the big team.   When that talent starts to come up then you decide what holes need to be filled and where your excess talent lies.   Not now.   You don't go for a guy like Ramirez unless you are going all in over the next two years which would mean trading off many of the chips and bloating the payroll again.    It doesn't mean you couldn't create a contending team for 2023 but it's still no slam dunk and you've traded a lot of capital for short term gains.

 

We don't know if D.L. Hall becomes a bust, a reliever, or a star.   Who knew Cedric Mullins would turn into what he has.   This isn't time to trade the chips.  Most of the chips could turn out to be nothing but Jose Ramirez turns into nothing in two years as well.

Well, he turns into a draft pick, not nothing.

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4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Or he could still be playing at the MVP level has been 3 of the last 4 years (top 3 MVP voting those years and well on his way to another 5+ WAR this year) and those guys could fizzle out or get hurt…or they just all play together and we are that much better.-

I'm not saying it's not the way to go.  I'm just saying it's not the way I would go.

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26 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think he could be that piece in 2023. I don’t mind acquiring the piece early.

And again, he is one name I would pursue.  I would prefer longer term options but I’m not scared off by the idea that he could leave in a few years.  

I don't necessarily mind acquiring a piece early, but it has to be the right piece, and I don't think Ramirez is it, neither is Hosmer or any other big contract "name". 

Anyone that could significantly help this team and also be a part of the future isn't available, or won't be cheap if they are. We need to continue building towards 2023 and beyond, 2-3 extra wins this year and next doesn't really get us anywhere.

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Just now, NCRaven said:

I'm not saying it's not the way to go.  I'm just saying it's not the way I would go.

And it’s justifiable.  Like I said, there would probably be other guys I would rather trade for.  I have been on the German Marquez train for about a year now.  It sounds like Colorado won’t trade him but that’s the type of guy I would over Ramirez if I’m dealing out better prospects.  Im just not going to be scared off by the idea that Ramirez could be gone in 2 years because I feel we should be a playoff contender in 2023.

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3 minutes ago, billw76 said:

I don't necessarily mind acquiring a piece early, but it has to be the right piece, and I don't think Ramirez is it, neither is Hosmer or any other big contract "name". 

Anyone that could significantly help this team and also be a part of the future isn't available, or won't be cheap if they are. We need to continue building towards 2023 and beyond, 2-3 extra wins this year and next doesn't really get us anywhere.

People keep saying we need to build towards 2023 yet no one wants to actually acquire players.  People are afraid to trade guys or spend money on the wrong guy or whatever.
 

There is a zero percent chance this team is a playoff team in 2023 without significant outside help.  Don’t get me wrong, the players we have here currently most be good for us to contend but you need those other guys to put you over the top, especially since all of the guys you want to rely on, won’t even make an impact in the majors.  

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