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Frobby

Sharpestats: O’s good at shifting

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Long, complicated analysis by a guy I know, analyzing shift strategy.   Read the details if you have the fortitude, or scroll towards the end for these conclusions:

- Shifting against LHB can be effective, shifting against RHB is generally a waste of time.

- From 2018 to 2021, the Orioles were the third best team in the majors in shifts, roughly +2 wins were 162 games.

- Ib 2021, the O’s have been 6th best at shifting, again at about +2 wins per 162 game

https://sharpestats.com/ab-testing-the-shift/

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10 hours ago, Frobby said:

Long, complicated analysis by a guy I know, analyzing shift strategy.   Read the details if you have the fortitude, or scroll towards the end for these conclusions:

- Shifting against LHB can be effective, shifting against RHB is generally a waste of time.

- From 2018 to 2021, the Orioles were the third best team in the majors in shifts, roughly +2 wins were 162 games.

- Ib 2021, the O’s have been 6th best at shifting, again at about +2 wins per 162 game

https://sharpestats.com/ab-testing-the-shift/

I am quite often amazed at the accuracy of the shifts working in the favor of our beloved Birds!  Some hard one-hoppers that might ordinarily be hits are easy assists for our guys.

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48 minutes ago, bobmc said:

I am quite often amazed at the accuracy of the shifts working in the favor of our beloved Birds!  Some hard one-hoppers that might ordinarily be hits are easy assists for our guys.

Case in point yesterday when Mountcastle nearly took the pitcher’s head off on a liner up the middle with runners on 1st and 2nd, but the 2B was right there to field it on the short hop and turn a would be RBI single into a DP grounder.  So, it’s not like shifts never work on RHB.

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5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Case in point yesterday when Mountcastle nearly took the pitcher’s head off on a liner up the middle with runners on 1st and 2nd, but the 2B was right there to field it on the short hop and turn a would be RBI single into a DP grounder.  So, it’s not like shifts never work on RHB.

Completely guessing here, but I think 20 years ago any sharply hit grounder or line drive through the box* had a BABIP of .750 or .800.  Today?  There always seems to be someone standing right around the second base bag and that number can't be half that high.  My entire game in slow-pitch softball was to line the ball past the pitcher into center for a single.  If they shifted on me I'd have had to completely changed how I hit.

* Love how "through the box" is a thing that most fans understand despite the last time a pitcher's box was used was 1892.

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45 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Completely guessing here, but I think 20 years ago any sharply hit grounder or line drive through the box* had a BABIP of .750 or .800.  Today?  There always seems to be someone standing right around the second base bag and that number can't be half that high.  My entire game in slow-pitch softball was to line the ball past the pitcher into center for a single.  If they shifted on me I'd have had to completely changed how I hit.

* Love how "through the box" is a thing that most fans understand despite the last time a pitcher's box was used was 1892.

So you were a "banjo hitter"?  

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16 minutes ago, bobmc said:

So you were a "banjo hitter"?  

I prefer "table setter".  On a good day I could drive a softball 250', and I'd drive both the opposing pitcher and my own team insane by almost never swinging until I'd seen 3, 4, 5 pitches. 

Yes, I was a banjo hitter.

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3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I prefer "table setter".  On a good day I could drive a softball 250', and I'd drive both the opposing pitcher and my own team insane by almost never swinging until I'd seen 3, 4, 5 pitches. 

Yes, I was a banjo hitter.

This was exactly me in softball, at least after the league switched to reduced-flight balls. Never knew there was a word for it

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Well I guess it’s a dubious thing to be known for.  I’m not anti shift, although I think it’s annoying. It’s part of the game. 
 

Hopefully we can still be good at it if we’re ever winning games at a good clip ever again. 
 
Tip of the hat to Hyde, I suppose, for knowing when to shift. 

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19 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

This was exactly me in softball, at least after the league switched to reduced-flight balls. Never knew there was a word for it

Reduced flight is what all who play after 40 should be doing.  I see guys now in their 60's and 70's playing with face shields and knee pads to protect them from the death inducing metal bats.  We probably all have a story of a guy/gal who has been driven off to the ER after getting struck on the field.  I believe we should all play with wood bats and "soft" balls.  Switch hit and play in whites.  @DrungoHazewood

Note to self:  you are really, really ancient and a pathetic old man

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16 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Well I guess it’s a dubious thing to be known for.  I’m not anti shift, although I think it’s annoying. It’s part of the game. 
 

Hopefully we can still be good at it if we’re ever winning games at a good clip ever again. 
 
Tip of the hat to Hyde, I suppose, for knowing when to shift. 

What is this?  You are sounding more and more like (I'm not supposed to @ him) COC.  Funny thing is I agree!  🙃

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11 minutes ago, bobmc said:

What is this?  You are sounding more and more like (I'm not supposed to @ him) COC.  Funny thing is I agree!  🙃

Well also we've apparently had some good personnel to deploy the shift as well.

I like Hyde, I think he's doing the best with what he's got.

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4 hours ago, bobmc said:

Reduced flight is what all who play after 40 should be doing.  I see guys now in their 60's and 70's playing with face shields and knee pads to protect them from the death inducing metal bats.  We probably all have a story of a guy/gal who has been driven off to the ER after getting struck on the field.  I believe we should all play with wood bats and "soft" balls.  Switch hit and play in whites.  @DrungoHazewood

Note to self:  you are really, really ancient and a pathetic old man

Bob, it isn't metal bats that they are protecting themselves from, it is the composite bats, especially the "senior bats" that have a 1.21 bpf.

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34 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Bob, it isn't metal bats that they are protecting themselves from, it is the composite bats, especially the "senior bats" that have a 1.21 bpf.

Correct - my bad.  I haven't played in a while and I have heard double wall, etc.  Seems too dangerous for old fellas but they love the thrill of trying to avoid injury, I guess.

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1 hour ago, bobmc said:

Correct - my bad.  I haven't played in a while and I have heard double wall, etc.  Seems too dangerous for old fellas but they love the thrill of trying to avoid injury, I guess.

LOL.  Just trying to have a few more days in the sun!  Glory days!

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On 7/26/2021 at 2:46 PM, bobmc said:

Reduced flight is what all who play after 40 should be doing.  I see guys now in their 60's and 70's playing with face shields and knee pads to protect them from the death inducing metal bats.  We probably all have a story of a guy/gal who has been driven off to the ER after getting struck on the field.  I believe we should all play with wood bats and "soft" balls.  Switch hit and play in whites.  @DrungoHazewood

Note to self:  you are really, really ancient and a pathetic old man

I almost never pitched, but I did throw batting practice once in a while and I got nailed in the shin by a line drive.  Black and blue for weeks.  I haven't played regularly in 15 years.  Wife gave me a choice when kids came, and I picked soccer so I could stay in better shape.  Also, my arm was shot.  Now with kids' schedules I haven't played anything in over five years.

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