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Orioles trade discussion thread

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2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

https://theathletic.com/2730475/2021/07/26/padres-on-pace-to-exceed-luxury-tax-threshold-for-first-time-eric-hosmer-trade-among-the-possible-options/?source=user_shared_article
 

To trade Hosmer, the Padres likely would have to attach significant prospect value. Eating part of his contract may be a requirement, too. (Hosmer, who is owed $59 million over the next four seasons, has limited no-trade protection this year. If he stays with the Padres through 2022, he would earn 10-and-5 rights and the ability to veto any trade.)

I know about the Hosmer trade rumors, but I would be surprised though if the Padres gave up Abrams to seal any trade. I know it's $59M, but I'd seriously consider it for a prospect like Abrams. Plus, I don't see Hosmer reaching Chris Davis levels of futility.  

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I'd be happy with pretty much anything for Fry or Scott. It is nice to have a lefty in the pen that can bring high velocity and is a big strikeout guy, but with his control issues and the 3 batter minimum, it's really tough to watch Scott when he comes in and just doesn't have it that day.

I wouldn't just give either away, but if we got a legit prospect back and/or international money, I would be happy.

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7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think I would move Scott for the equivalent of the Castro deal.  I need more than a top 15-20 Prospect with some upside but not a lot.

Lefty's with his arm don't grow on trees. I think we could get at least 2 pieces for him that have value.

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52 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If you are going to look to trade Trey in the offseason, it’s moronic to not do it now unless the offers suck.

This may go hand in hand with your “unless the offers suck” point, but with position players sometimes the buyers don’t match up with who you’re looking to move. Although teams theoretically pay a premium at the deadline, there’s a larger potential universe of buyers in the off-season when everyone is 0-0. 
 

current market dynamics matter. 

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3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Btw, the 5M for Chafin is a mutual option, so he likely will just be a rental. 
 

Fry is younger and has more service time but still, this will give us some idea imo.

Chafin has 6 years of service time.  Fry and Scott will each have 3 years at the end of this season.   The O's three+  years  of team control over Fry and Scott's make them much more valuable than Chafin.   Chaffin is  in control of his future with his mutual option.

I would think the Fry and Scott's 2022 salary would be around 2m plus or minus.   Chafin mutual option for next season is 5.25m.

Chafin is 31.  Fry is 29.  Scott is 27.

The only thing that I can see that these three players have in common is that they are lefty relievers.  What am I missing?

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3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

If you are going to look to trade Trey in the offseason, it’s moronic to not do it now unless the offers suck.

The IF, is a big iIF.    There are many factors surrounding Trey.  

1) With Adley and Grayson arriving in 2022, is that the first year that Elias will value wins?   

2) If wins are important in 2022 then do the O's have a replacement for Trey's offense?   Trey projects for 30 homers , 90+ RBI and over an 800 OPS.

3) Is Trey open to a two year plus plus an option contract or will it take 3, 4 or 5 years to extend him?  What kind of trade protection would have to be in the contract?

4) With the presents of Mountcastle, Trey is more or less a DH that can backup 1B.  Do the O's have a player to replace him.

5) How fast is Stowers coming.  Will he be promoted to AAA before the season is over?  How will he do there if he is promoted?   Is he a factor with the O's in 2022?  Another two months may provide some answers.

6) Trey will get 8-10m in arbitration.  Can the O's pick up a FA that can DH for less money that can produce like Trey?

7) Who of Hays, Santander, Stewart, McKenna, Neustrom, Jarrett  and Stowers do the O's want to keep or trade and how does that impact Trey at DH?

These are but a few of the questions surrounding Trey.   Two months may allow Elias to know more before deciding to sign or trade him.  That has to be weighed vs the lost value of two pennant races vs one.

 

 

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7 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Hosmer is being mentioned.  I know this was brought up in another thread.

If you can get Abrams back, do you take on the 4/59 (plus this year) for him?

I would guess if you get Abrams, you will be eating most, if not all, of that contract.  

Now, you may not have to give up much of anything but you are essentially spending 60M or so to buy Abrams.

So in advance I appreciate your enthusiasm. But, I haven’t seen Elias make this type of deal and I seen no desire by the Orioles ownership group to add any substantial payroll.

Discussing a scenario like this for the Orioles is like me having the winning ticket the next time the powerball is 600+ milllion

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7 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Hosmer is being mentioned.  I know this was brought up in another thread.

If you can get Abrams back, do you take on the 4/59 (plus this year) for him?

I would guess if you get Abrams, you will be eating most, if not all, of that contract.  

Now, you may not have to give up much of anything but you are essentially spending 60M or so to buy Abrams.

I'd be interested in a move like that as long as we didn't have to give up a lot to make it happen, especially if we're eating all or most of Hosmer's contract. 

My only real issue with it would be where to find ABs for Mancini, Mountcastle and Hosmer, because Hosmer will be in the lineup with that contract. Yes Mountcastle and Mancini can play OF, but do we really want to put them out there on an everyday basis. Mancini could also be traded before the deadline, but I'm thinking that isn't very likely to happen at this point.

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1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

So in advance I appreciate your enthusiasm. But, I haven’t seen Elias make this type of deal and I seen no desire by the Orioles ownership group to add any substantial payroll.

Discussing a scenario like this for the Orioles is like me having the winning ticket the next time the powerball is 600+ milllion

Then don’t discuss it?

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Chicago got the 8th and 12th ranked prospects in the Oak organization, according to FG, in this deal.  Most sites have Deichman ranked in the top 10 but other sites don’t show Palencia at all, although he has just recently made his debut in the Oak system.

Either way, for a rental reliever, that’s not a bad return.

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5 hours ago, wildcard said:

Chafin has 6 years of service time.  Fry and Scott will each have 3 years at the end of this season.   The O's three+  years  of team control over Fry and Scott's make them much more valuable than Chafin.   Chaffin is  in control of his future with his mutual option.

I would think the Fry and Scott's 2022 salary would be around 2m plus or minus.   Chafin mutual option for next season is 5.25m.

Chafin is 31.  Fry is 29.  Scott is 27.

The only thing that I can see that these three players have in common is that they are lefty relievers.  What am I missing?

I’m guessing you are saying all of this because you feel Fry and Scott should have more value…and maybe they do.

But Chafin also is having a better season and that matters too.  If we can trade Fry for a top 10 and another top 15 prospect in an organization, that’s a deal I’d be happy to make.  
 

I am not sure I make that deal for Scott though.  It depends on the players and how strong the organization is that they are coming from.

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4 hours ago, wildcard said:

The IF, is a big iIF.    There are many factors surrounding Trey.  

1) With Adley and Grayson arriving in 2022, is that the first year that Elias will value wins?   

2) If wins are important in 2022 then do the O's have a replacement for Trey's offense?   Trey projects for 30 homers , 90+ RBI and over an 800 OPS.

3) Is Trey open to a two year plus plus an option contract or will it take 3, 4 or 5 years to extend him?  What kind of trade protection would have to be in the contract?

4) With the presents of Mountcastle, Trey is more or less a DH that can backup 1B.  Do the O's have a player to replace him.

5) How fast is Stowers coming.  Will he be promoted to AAA before the season is over?  How will he do there if he is promoted?   Is he a factor with the O's in 2022?  Another two months may provide some answers.

6) Trey will get 8-10m in arbitration.  Can the O's pick up a FA that can DH for less money that can produce like Trey?

7) Who of Hays, Santander, Stewart, McKenna, Neustrom, Jarrett  and Stowers do the O's want to keep or trade and how does that impact Trey at DH?

These are but a few of the questions surrounding Trey.   Two months may allow Elias to know more before deciding to sign or trade him.  That has to be weighed vs the lost value of two pennant races vs one.

 

 

The only question that matters is what kind of return is Mancini netting in a deal.  If it’s a good return, you have to move him.  If it’s not, you keep him.

You don’t have to trade Mancini but you do have to trade him if the right deal comes along.

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40 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Then don’t discuss it?

I guess I’d prefer moves that they actually might do. I could see them dealing Mancini, Means, or Mullins. I think it’s more likely that they’d deal all 3 then make a deal like you are suggesting.

Until I see the willingness to actually spend I don’t think it’s worth discussing.

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