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Philip

Who stays who goes, and other advice.

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I am trying to learn more about the minors so I can follow the prospect development more accurately, but gosh there’s a whole Lotta guys to deal with.

We drafted 20+ guys? We need to make room for all of them in a system that has been contracted by one team. Plus we need to take ages into account, the Rule 5 into account, And roster balance.

So my question Are there any particular guidelines to look for when looking at a particular roster and determining prospect or non-prospect? I suppose age for the level would be one, But there’s also being stuck at a level, not producing at all or declining, I think Cody Sedlock might be an example. The organization has to dump at least 20 guys in addition to the MLB departures.

Any way to start determining who is going to go and who’s going to stay?

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Every level has a handful of "org guys" which are guys that aren't really prospects and are just organizational filler, necessary to fill out minor league rosters. In all likelihood, 80 percent or so of the players taken after round 8 or so in this draft will, within three years, either be out of baseball or be org guys themselves.

Age compared to their level is probably the easiest way to gauge who these guys are. Another way to tell is if a player is moving all over different minor league levels seemingly not based on merit.

Willy Yahn is an example of the latter, having split time evenly at four minor league levels this season.

Looking at for instance, the Baysox roster, any player that is 25 or older is an org guy unless there is an extenuating circumstance (Patrick Dorian). At Aberdeen that number is probably 24, although 24 year-old guys who started with Aberdeen and are now with Bowie (Rizer, Watson, and Welk) aren't org guys yet, they were slightly old for the level due to the missed 2020 season.

Ryan Ripken is far and away the most famous org guy in the system.

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@MurphDogg

I appreciate your reply, it does help clear things up a bit, so question, was Spencer Watkins considered a non-prospect who just got a call because they needed a warm body, and he turned out to do well?

Yaz Was considered a non-prospect, and he has obviously done well, was that an extreme outlier?

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1 minute ago, Philip said:

@MurphDogg

I appreciate your reply, it does help clear things up a bit, so question, was Spencer Watkins considered a non-prospect who just got a call because they needed a warm body, and he turned out to do well?

Yaz Was considered a non-prospect, and he has obviously done well, was that an extreme outlier?

There is really no such thing as a 28-year-old prospect. Watkins was a guy who had some success at lower levels and was brought in to compete for a spot in the AAA rotation and made the most of his opportunity.

Yaz was a guy who never dominated AA but was decent in half a season at AAA at 27, had some raw power, and was brought in to shore up the Giants AAA OF situation. Tyler Herb, who the Orioles acquired in that trade in 2019 was quite good at 25 in AA in 2017 (better than Yaz ever was at that level) but struggled in 2018 in AAA. The Orioles probably hoped he would compete for a spot in the AAA rotation and, best case scenario, end up with a handful of productive Major League starts like Watkins has this year.

All three of those guys are/were a half step above org guys, and would have become org guys if things didn't go well (as they didn't for Herb).

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