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kidrock

I'm starting to think we are 4-5 years away from competing for real

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After reading through an article on who the Cubs may potentially trade away, I began to think that we are further away in the rebuild than I originally thought.  They have many decent to plus players who many think they are going to trade.  If they can't compete with a core of Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Kimbrel, Hendricks, Davies, Wisdom, it makes me feel like the O's are just so far away.

Maybe I am being foolish or dramatic, but look at St Louis, Wash DC, Atlanta, Philly, NYM.  All have much better rosters, yet they are all around 500.  The Braves weren't doing that great before Acuna got hurt from what I remember.

Am I off base here?

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I wouldn't necessarily fully embrace your time-line, but I have long felt we're further away than the general consensu seems on the board.

None of our top prospects has even arrived in the MLs.

It will take years for those top prospects to affect winning and losing at the ML level.

You can do the math.

The Baltimore Orioles in 2018 were probably in the worst position in modern history in terms of being prepared to compete.

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All of the eggs are in the player development basket.  If the high-level guys in the minors hit their projections, then the Orioles should at least be competitive in 2023.  A lot of moves can happen, as well.  

The 2009 and 2010 Orioles were pretty bad. The 2011 Orioles were still bad, but had several pieces added who would contribute, and in 2012 everything came together.  

I see this current team as similar to the 2009 Orioles, but with a better farm system.

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1 minute ago, crowmst3k! said:

All of the eggs are in the player development basket.  If the high-level guys in the minors hit their projections, then the Orioles should at least be competitive in 2023.  A lot of moves can happen, as well.  

The 2009 and 2010 Orioles were pretty bad. The 2011 Orioles were still bad, but had several pieces added who would contribute, and in 2012 everything came together.  

I see this current team as similar to the 2009 Orioles, but with a better farm system.

They got pretty lucky in 2012.  What if it hadn't come together until 2014?

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We should be relevant in 2023.  Will ownership want to invest and supplement with FA by then?

Unclear.  But 2023 has to be the target for at least flirting with .500 imo.  

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I think another thing worth pointing out is that rebuilds almost never go in linear fashion.  There seems to be a belief that we'll win 70 game and then 80 and then 90 and we'll be right in contention.  That's doubtful.

Go look at the Ray in 08 when they finally got good.  Or the O's in  12.  Or the Cubs and Astros.  Those teams got good overnight.  

So even if you believe we'll be competitive in 2024, it's very possible that we won't be any good until then, and well under .500 in 23.

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2 minutes ago, crowmst3k! said:

All of the eggs are in the player development basket.  If the high-level guys in the minors hit their projections, then the Orioles should at least be competitive in 2023.  A lot of moves can happen, as well.  

The 2009 and 2010 Orioles were pretty bad. The 2011 Orioles were still bad, but had several pieces added who would contribute, and in 2012 everything came together.  

I see this current team as similar to the 2009 Orioles, but with a better farm system.

But about 10 fewer wins.   

Things can change quickly.  Payroll is low and Elias will have lots of flexibility to add payroll when he thinks the time is right.   It’s not like we need to rely exclusively on home grown talent.   But the home grown talent will need to play a big role.   I agree with the point that the young talent will need to have some experience, too.   

I just want to see a team that is visibly improving.   Then I’ll worry about contending.   

 

 

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I’m also thinking that we are going to get more impact players than we had with the magic of 2012 and 2014. Outside of Manny, we had some awesome pieces but most came from trades. We are going to get huge impact players like Rodriguez, Hall, Henderson, Jones, Rutschman, Westburg, Smith and Baumann. We’ve got so much waiting in the wings to add to a core set of good players. The outfield looks good already, the infield needs a third baseman, shortstop, and depth (enter Henderson, Jones, and Westburg), the pitching staff needs better starters (enter Grayson, Hall, Smith and Baumann) and we need a catcher (enter Rutschman).

 

We have answers for each of the current holes and they will be playing in the majors in 2 years time. We are fine. Enjoy the ride!

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Contending is somewhat dependent as to what the other teams do.  One year a certain W/L record  would get a team to the playoffs, and another year it would not, if making the  playoffs  is the definition of Contending.  I would think that aiming for .500  would be  the absolute highest  goal to reasonably set for 2022.  Anything above that would be off the chart, good.  But we do not know for a fact if  a  .500 record would put the team in the playoffs.   Now if we define contending as a reasonable chance to make the playoffs 1/2  way through the season, then the bar is not as high.   Anyway,  as has been said,  if the team is improving at a good rate, then that bar is not so high either,  and should be very achievable, again depending on what the definition of a good rate is. I have always looked at a poor team as one that is crawling, a .500 team as one that is walking, and a team above .500  as a team that is running.    Hope the Orioles run into the playoffs by 2023. 

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33 minutes ago, Oriole1940 said:

Contending is somewhat dependent as to what the other teams do.  One year a certain W/L record  would get a team to the playoffs, and another year it would not, if making the  playoffs  is the definition of Contending.  I would think that aiming for .500  would be  the absolute highest  goal to reasonably set for 2022.  Anything above that would be off the chart, good.  But we do not know for a fact if  a  .500 record would put the team in the playoffs.   Now if we define contending as a reasonable chance to make the playoffs 1/2  way through the season, then the bar is not as high.   Anyway,  as has been said,  if the team is improving at a good rate, then that bar is not so high either,  and should be very achievable, again depending on what the definition of a good rate is. I have always looked at a poor team as one that is crawling, a .500 team as one that is walking, and a team above .500  as a team that is running.    Hope the Orioles run into the playoffs by 2023. 

By this definition, I think it’s two years before we are walking.   But maybe next year we are standing up in the crib instead of just lying there hoping someone picks us up!

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50 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

We are as close as the owners are willing to commit to...

Agreed, and Elias needs to pitch some acquisitions. At some point, the Orioles need to look at their timeline for competing, and make some signings to complement the talent in the pipeline.  These don't have to be huge deals for 'premium talent', but the right players to fill some needs that the pipeline may miss will help shorten the timeline to competing.  

MacPhail and Duquette made some good acquisitions in the years leading up to 2012. The trade for Reynolds, the trade for Hardy, the trade for Jason Hammel, signing Wei-Yin Chen. If Elias can do some of this effectively, it will help substantially. 

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